O 231742Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5791
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UNCLAS PRETORIA 002102 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SF
SUBJECT: SAG DEPUTY PRESIDENT AND ONE THIRD OF CABINET 
MINISTERS/DEPUTY MINISTERS RESIGN WITH PRESIDENT MBEKI 
 
REF: A. PRETORIA 2095 
     ¶B. PRETORIA 2096 
     ¶C. PRETORIA 2100 
 
¶1. Summary: The resignation of Deputy President Phumzile 
Mlambo-Ngcuka came as no surprise, due to her loyalty towards 
President Thabo Mbeki, and her controversial standing with 
the new African National Congress (ANC) senior leadership. 
Although the ANC said her resignation was regrettable, and 
was not asked for, her loyalty towards Mbeki almost 
guaranteed she had no future with the ANC. In a similar 
manner, the announcement of the resignation of a number of 
cabinet ministers and deputy ministers was seen as a dramatic 
act of solidarity with the former President Mbeki; as the ANC 
leadership had publicly and privately conveyed their desire 
that all "ANC deployees remain in their posts."  End Summary. 
 
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MBEKI ALLIES WARNED THAT THEY WERE LOYAL... 
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¶2.  Prior to President Mbeki's forced resignation on 
September 21, several cabinet ministers, including the Deputy 
President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, signaled that they would 
likely step down if Mbeki was asked to resign.  The internal 
polarization within the ANC based on factional competition 
between supporters of Mbeki and ANC President Jacob Zuma had 
reach an untenable level by September.  In 2008, the new ANC 
leadership removed Mbeki supporters and replaced them with 
Zuma supporters at the provincial and municipal levels to 
reflect the victory of Zuma over Mbeki in December 2008 in 
Polokwane.  Tension within the ANC continued to grow in 
response to the "two centers of power" conflict.  ANC members 
were being pushed to the side because they were "guilty" of 
supporting Mbeki.  Following the statement by the ANC 
National Executive Committee (NEC) "recalling" Mbeki as SAG 
president on September 20, Mbeki announced his resignation 
the following day.  In this atmosphere, close political 
allies of Mbeki believed they faced an uncertain political 
future. 
 
¶3.  In this dramatic turn of events, the NEC and Zuma himself 
sought to reassure ANC office holders that he wished to them, 
as ANC "deployees" to stay in their posts to assure stability 
in this transition.  However, today the ANC confirmed 
resignations of Deputy President Mlambo-Ngcuka, Minister of 
Defense Mosiuoa Lekota, Minister in the Presidency Essop 
Pahad, Minister of Intelligence Ronnie Kasrils, Minister of 
Public Enterprises Alec Erwin, Minister of Science and 
Technology Mosimuba Mangena and Minister of Provincial and 
Local Government Sydney Mfumadi.  Despite Zuma's assurances, 
this group is deeply distrusted by Zuma's supporters, and 
though they are loyal ANC members, may not be asked to join 
the government of temporary acting president Mothlante or a 
Zuma cabinet after national elections in early 2009. 
 
¶4. A number of other ministers that resigned today appear to 
have done so primarily out of formality and loyalty to Mbeki 
in a dramatic public act.  Some of them have indicated that 
they are prepared to serve under a new ANC President.  These 
ministers include; Minister of Finance Trevor Manuel, 
Minister of Correctional Services Ngconde Balfour, Minister 
of Public Works Thoko Didiza, Minister of Public Service and 
Administration Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi, Deputy Minister of 
QAdministration Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi, Deputy Minister of 
Foreign Affairs Aziz Pahad, Deputy Minister of Finance Jabu 
Moleketi and Deputy Minister of Correctional Services Loretta 
Jacobus. 
 
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MLAMBO-NGCUKA -- GUILTY BY ASSOCIATION 
-------------------------------------- 
¶5. While serving as head of the National Prosecuting 
Authority (NPA) in 2001, Bulelani Ngcuka (the husband of 
Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka) announced after the corruption 
charges were filed against Zuma advisor Shabir Shaik, that 
the NPA had "a prime facie case" against Jacob Zuma, but the 
NPA would not prosecute him at that time because they did not 
have a winnable case.  In 2005, Thabo Mbeki relieved Jacob 
Zuma of his duties as SAG deputy president, following the 
guilty verdict was reached against Schabir Shaik.  Mbeki 
replaced Zuma with Bulelani's wife Phumzile; earning her the 
eternal distrust and dislike of Zuma's most ardent 
supporters.  This sentiment and her association with her 
husband added unconfirmed speculation about an alleged 
conspiracy against Zuma by Mbeki and his cabinet. 
 
¶6.  Phumzile was appointed as deputy president by President 
Thabo Mbeki and is correctly perceived as a Mbeki loyalist 
with little struggle credentials or individual standing 
within the ANC.  Although an ANC member she was never 
affiliated to the ANC Women's League.  Her appointment also 
came at a time when Mbeki was promoting female representation 
in government positions as well as the idea of a woman as his 
successor in the presidency -- e.g., Phumzile.  This 
suggestion gained her no friends among Zuma's true believers. 
 
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COMMENT: LOYALTY AND NATIONALISM 
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¶7.  In recent days, in response to the dramatic events 
flowing from the ANC, local pundits and analysts have 
speculated that the factionalism within the ANC could lead to 
a split by disgruntled party members who would challenge the 
core ANC in future elections.  Post's view is that though 
this may be a future prospect, it is unlikely for the near 
term.  As demonstrated by Mbeki, his loyalty to and respect 
for the ANC provided him only one choice when the NEC 
recalled him -- he obliged/complied.  Similarly, it is likely 
that if, after this dramatic group resignation, Zuma asks 
these cabinet members to return and serve the ANC and South 
Africa, the bulk of them will respond positively.  However, 
the friction between the supporters of Mbeki and Zuma is real 
and deep.  Such that some of these leaders will not be asked 
to return. 
 
BOST