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RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSA #2025/01 2551643
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 111643Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5685
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 6001
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 0152
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 002025 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KJUS SF
SUBJECT: ZUMA SUPPORTERS ENERGIZED AHEAD OF KEY RULING 
 
REF: PRETORIA 2013 
 
PRETORIA 00002025  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY.  Ruling African National Congress (ANC) 
President Jacob Zuma's supporters are turning to the streets 
and intensifying their rhetoric ahead of the Pietermaritzburg 
High Court decision tomorrow.  The court is expected to rule 
on a petition by Zuma's defense team that calls the court to 
terminate the prosecution and remove criminal charges against 
him.  Judge Chris Nicholson is expected to rule whether the 
National Prosecuting Authority's (NPA) decision to recharge 
him in December 2007 was lawful.  (Note:  In September 2006, 
the Pietermaritzburg court removed the corruption case 
against Zuma from the court docket because the NPA had 
insufficient basis for pursuing the prosecution in a timely 
manner.  In December 2007, days after he was elected ANC 
President over incumbent Thabo Mbeki, the NPA charged Zuma 
with corruption, racketeering, money laundering, and fraud. 
End Note.)  Police are tightening security ahead of Zuma's 
court appearance and Zuma is trying to defuse further unrest 
should the court rule against him.  END SUMMARY. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
ZUMA SUPPORTERS TAKE TO THE STREETS... 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Hundreds of Zuma supporters on Wednesday September 
10 took to the streets in Durban, calling for the NPA's 
charges to be dropped.  This follows more than a week of 
increasingly aggressive demonstrations across the country 
where youth wings of the ANC coalition have presented 
petitions to provincial courts calling for all charges 
against Zuma to be dropped.  Marchers blocked all the major 
routes into the city for more than three hours, forcing 
businesses to close and traffic diversions.  Demonstrators 
intimidated bystanders and even forced drivers and 
pedestrians to join their march.  Police used rubber bullets 
and stun grenades to disperse the crowd and paramedics 
treated at least two protesters for rubber bullet wounds. 
Police expect several thousand supporters to attend a night 
vigil on Thursday September 11 in Pietermaritzburg and an ANC 
official told U.S. diplomats this week that there will be a 
big gathering on Friday for the verdict and some expect 
nearly 5,000 supporters.  (Note:  The senior leaders of the 
ANC's coalition and provincial leaders from across the 
country will arrive in Pietermaritzburg on the night before 
the verdict.  The ANC coalition intends to bus in thousands 
of supporters.  End Note.) 
 
------------------------- 
...AND TURN UP THE VOLUME 
------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) ANC Youth League President Julius Malema on 
Wednesday warned that youth league supporters would "crush" 
and "eliminate" anyone, including ANC leaders, who attempt to 
block Zuma from becoming President.  He also claimed more 
Zuma supporters would be bussed into Pietermaritzburg in 
order to bring the city to a halt before Judge Nicholson 
makes his decision. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), 
meanwhile, on Wednesday called on the ANC to reinstate Zuma 
to the Deputy Presidency.  (Note: Zuma was removed from this 
job in June 2005 following initial charges of corruption in 
the controversial 1998 arms deal.  End Note.) 
KwaZulu-Natal's COSATU Secretary Zet Luzipho told protesters 
the trade unions stand behind Zuma and claimed that wealthy 
South Africans are using their influence over state 
institutions to bar Zuma from the presidency.  COSATU's top 
Qinstitutions to bar Zuma from the presidency.  COSATU's top 
leadership is expected to attend Zuma's appearance on Friday 
at the court and Secretary General Zwelinzima Vavi implied 
there could be a stay-away (work stoppage) if Zuma is found 
guilty. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Zuma's supporters also continue to express outrage 
over a cartoon drawn by South African cartoonist Zapiro 
depicting Zuma preparing to rape the criminal justice system. 
 The cartoon is seen by many as a metaphor for Zuma and his 
supporters not respecting the judiciary's independence. 
However, Zuma's defenders castigate it as an abuse of the 
freedom of the press and prejudicial against Zuma, who was 
found not guilty when accused of rape in 2006. 
 
----------------------- 
POLICE STEP UP SECURITY 
----------------------- 
 
PRETORIA 00002025  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU)  Police in KwaZulu-Natal are on high alert so 
officers can temper the reactions to Nicholson's verdict. 
Police spokesperson Henry Budhram said officers will make 
security a priority as they have done for Zuma's previous 
court appearances.  Budhram noted police want to ensure 
normal activities continue unhindered outside the court. 
 
¶7. (SBU)  Zuma is seeking to defuse possible unrest from his 
supporters by reiterating publicly that while the judiciary 
is not above criticism it is a pillar of a stable society and 
its verdicts must be respected.  There is also continued 
speculation that Zuma's legal team is seeking a plea bargain 
with the NPA.  In the meantime, however, uncertainty over 
Nicholson's ruling probably will reach a fever pitch with 
Zuma supporters across the country and in Pietermaritzburg 
continuing to protest and criticize the courts despite the 
ANC President's attempts to temper the situation. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU)  Julius Malema is stoking up the expectations of 
Zuma supporters by suggesting that Judge Nicholson will throw 
out Zuma's corruption case on Friday.  Legal analysts expect 
that Zuma's petition before the court to end this prosecution 
action will fail.  In the absence of evidence to the 
contrary, Malema's suggestion that Zuma's legal troubles will 
be over following Nicholson's judgment is unlikely to be 
realized.  As such, the frustration likely to emerge when 
Malema's prediction fails to come to pass, the potential for 
aggression or violent demonstrations around this event 
increase. 
BOST