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DE RUEHSP #0443/01 2741322
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TO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
INFO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9424

UNCLAS PORT OF SPAIN 000443 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OVIP MARR MASS PREL PGOV PTER ASEC ECON TD
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF DEPUTY SECRETARY OF DEFENSE AND 
SOUTHCOM DEPUTY COMMANDER GENERAL SPEARS 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED; PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
¶1. (SBU) Embassy Port of Spain warmly welcomes your mid-October visit 
to Trinidad and Tobago.  Your trip is an opportunity to heighten 
bilateral and regional security cooperation, building on last June's 
Technical Meeting of Military Commanders, Defense Ministerial of the 
Americas conversations, and Secretary Rice's September 25 initiation of 
a U.S.-Caribbean security dialogue.  It also comes at a time when 
Trinidad is "punching above its weight" by preparing to host next 
April's Summit of the Americas and the November 2009 Commonwealth Heads 
of Government Meeting.  In addition, Prime Minister Manning is 
spearheading efforts to hasten Caribbean economic, political and 
security integration.  While your final schedule is under discussion, 
we expect it will include Manning, Minister of National Security Martin 
Joseph, Chief of Defense Edmund Dillon and, time permitting, a T&T 
official working on Summit of the Americas security. 
 
------------------------------- 
POLITICAL SNAPSHOT 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Manning's People's National Movement (PNM) party retained its 
parliamentary majority when T&T citizens voted November 5, 2007.  The 
PNM won 26 seats to the opposition United National Congress' (UNC) 15. 
With a secure parliamentary majority, Manning need not call another 
election until 2012.   The new Congress of the People (COP) party also 
contested the election, scoring relatively well in the popular vote but 
winning no seats.  The PNM and UNC are heavily, but not exclusively, 
based on ethnicity, with the PNM supported largely by Afro-Trinidadians 
and the UNC by Indo-Trinidadians.  The COP also draws mostly from 
Indo-Trinidadians, though it consciously sought (as did the other 
parties) to cross ethnic lines.  Even though the PNM holds a majority, 
passing critical legislation can be difficult due to required "super 
majorities" on bills impacting constitutional rights.  This is 
sometimes the case with security bills. 
 
--------------------------------- 
SECURITY LEADERSHIP 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Security issues, and especially a spiraling murder rate, were 
a major focus of the November 2007 elections.  In the almost year since 
that vote, these concerns have only grown in importance.  As such, GOTT 
officials remain centered on reducing crime, seeing this "war" as a 
two-front problem encompassing the battle within Trinidad's borders, 
but also transnational/regional threats, including drug trafficking. 
This conceptualization has led Manning to push efforts at regional 
security cooperation, most notably last April when he hosted several 
Caribbean heads of government to advance this effort and in the 
subsequent June Military Commanders Technical Meeting that included the 
U.S., UK, France and the Netherlands.  As the Caribbean country with 
the most vibrant economy, Manning sees T&T as the natural leader in 
this push, bolstered by his formal role inside CARICOM as security lead 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
CRIME AND NARCOTICS TRAFFICKING 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) The reason for T&T's narcotics trafficking concern can 
sometimes be glimpsed with the naked eye on clear days.  Trinidad is 
just seven miles off the coast of Venezuela at its closest point, 
making drug trafficking a major challenge. Narcotics from South America 
transit its waters or move through its airports.  The narcotics trade 
may be linked to the rising number of murders (over 400 so far this 
year) and other violent crimes that plague the country as weapons enter 
T&T utilizing the same routes.  The government faces a tough battle in 
trying to control these problems, exacerbated by inadequate border 
controls, corruption in the police service and a slow judiciary.  T&T's 
vibrant petrochemical industry also has the potential to provide 
diverted precursor chemicals for use in illegal drug production.  The 
country's growing economy and well-developed banking, communications 
and transportation systems, facilitate a significant number of sizeable 
financial transactions that can obscure money laundering. 
 
----------------- 
TERRORISM 
----------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) T&T has a considerable Muslim minority, comprising six to ten 
percent of the population.  The majority of Muslims are moderate, but 
there are a few radicals (witness the JFK case) and some Trinidad 
Muslims send their children to foreign madrasses and fundamentalist 
missionaries do come to T&T.  The most famous of Trinidad's radical 
Muslim organizations, though now seen as more of a criminal gang, is 
the Jamaat al-Muslimeen, a local Afro-Trinidadian group that launched a 
violent failed coup attempt in 1990.  T&T is party to eleven of the 
twelve UN anti-terror conventions, and in September 2005 passed 
anti-terrorism legislation. Elsewhere, T&T has come into compliance 
with the International Ship and Port Facility Security Code (ISPS), and 
 
the T&T Central Bank cooperates with Post in alerting financial 
institutions to potential sources of terrorist finance. 
 
-------------------------------- 
ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) T&T has a vibrant industrialized economy, buoyed by relatively 
large natural gas reserves.  It is our largest trading partner in the 
Caribbean and the leading beneficiary of Caribbean Basin Initiative 
trade preferences.  While fiscal policy has generally been restrained, 
rising spending coupled with a tight labor market have contributed to 
rising inflation, which reached 11.7 percent year-on-year in July 2008, 
a fourteen-year high.  T&T is considered a low-risk investment 
destination.  With inflation in double digits, its energy sector flat, 
and several manufacturing sub sectors registering contractions, T&T 
announced a revised 2008 real GDP growth estimate of 3.5%.  This 
represents a sharp downward revision from the IMF's April estimate of 
5.85% and a dramatic slowdown from the average 9% growth over the 
previous five years.  The T&T dollar remains stable in value against 
the U.S. dollar (at about 6.2/dollar), contributing to the country's 
attractiveness to foreign investment.  Standard & Poor has raised its 
credit rating for T&T to A- in 2005 and confirmed that rating in 2006 
and 2007. The GOTT regularly courts foreign investors, with U.S. 
companies often taking the lead. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
A CLOSER LOOK AT ENERGY 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) Oil was discovered in Trinidad in the mid-19th century, and the 
local energy industry is celebrating the 100th anniversary of 
commercial oil production in 2008.  After riding the oil boom and bust 
cycle of the 1970s and 1980s, T&T has made a major transition over the 
last ten years to an economy driven largely by natural gas, both for 
export and for consumption in domestic industries, attracting major 
foreign investment projects in liquefied natural gas (LNG), 
petrochemicals, steel, aluminum, and plastics.  T&T also continues to 
play a role in regional energy security, supplying refined petroleum 
products to the rest of the Caribbean, although competition from 
Venezuela backed by concessionary financing is eroding its regional 
market share. 
 
¶8. (U) T&T provides roughly two-thirds of the United States' imports of 
LNG, playing an important role in our energy security.  For this 
reason, USG agencies recently conducted a vulnerability assessment 
aimed at improving protection of critical infrastructure in T&T's 
energy sector, an initiative that enjoys full cooperation from the GOTT 
and energy sector companies.  USG agencies intend to remain engaged as 
the GOTT implements our recommendations over the next eighteen months. 
The GOTT also worked with the U.S. Department of Energy and U.S. 
Southern Command to host a regional energy infrastructure protection 
conference in Port of Spain on May 14-15. 
 
------------------------------------ 
REGIONAL INTEGRATION 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) PM Manning is a strong backer of CARICOM integration.  In 
August, he met with leaders from St Lucia, Grenada and St Vincent and 
the Grenadines to draft a declaration of support for political and 
economic integration.  Although other CARICOM members like Barbados, 
Jamaica, and the Bahamas stated they were not interested, Organization 
of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) members all have expressed their 
support.  The goal of this effort is economic integration by 2011 and 
political integration, perhaps along the lines of the EU model, by 
¶2013. 
 
-------------------------------- 
THE SUMMIT PROCESS 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) As noted, Manning also is raising T&T's international profile 
by hosting the Fifth Summit of the Americas (SOA) in April 2009 and the 
Commonwealth Summit in about six months later.  T&T has assembled a 
capable team to manage these meetings, under the leadership of Luis 
Alberto Rodriguez.  Bilateral dialogue on themes and concepts for the 
Summit has been constructive.  Nevertheless, some differences may 
manifest themselves in declaration negotiations.  These may include how 
to manage "food security," and its connection to energy and biofuels, 
and how much to "give" to Venezuela (with whom it shares some 
unexploited cross-border gas fields) on its Summit concerns.  Summit 
logistics also will pose a major challenge. 
 
------------------------------- 
POLICY DIFFERENCES 
------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Though a friend to the U.S., there are specific areas of 
policy difference.  Due in part to former President Robinson's role as 
a "father" of the International Criminal 
Court (ICC), T&T has not signed an Article 98 agreement with the U.S. 
and likely never will.  While not taken with the systems in either 
Venezuela or Cuba, T&T seeks to maintain positive ties with each of 
those nations and is an advocate of dialogue between Washington and 
Caracas and Havana.  Its voting record at the U.N. also leaves much to 
be desired from a U.S. policy perspective, though it is in line with 
its CARICOM partners. 
 
------------------- 
CONCLUSION 
------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) T&T remains an important ally, trading partner and regional 
leader whose centrality will grow over the coming months as we approach 
the April Summit and act to bolster security cooperation.  We look 
forward to facilitating a successful visit. 
 
AUSTIN