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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001171 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON SENV CA
SUBJECT: CANADA TO CALL FEDERAL ELECTION ON SEPTEMBER 7 
 
Ref: A) Ottawa 305 (Election Primer) 
     B) Ottawa 702 (Canadian Political Parties) 
     C) Ottawa 833 (Green Shift) 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Prime Minister Stephen Harper will trigger a 
Canadian federal election on September 7 with voting day on October 
¶14.  The Conservatives are well-positioned to win a second minority 
government and late August polls suggested they will gain seats in 
key provinces.  However, tight Ontario and Quebec races make the 
outcome unpredictable, according to our contacts and local media 
analysts.  The economy, the environment, and leadership are the 
major campaign issues, according to polling data and our contacts. 
Liberal leader Stephane Dion is especially in the spotlight, heading 
his first national campaign.  The election terminated Anti-Terrorism 
and IPR bills not yet passed in Parliament.  End summary 
 
READY, SET, GO 
--------------- 
 
¶2. (U) PM Harper will meet the Governor General at 09:00 EST on 
September 7 to request that she dissolve Canada's 39th Parliament 
and order elections on October 14 in all 308 national constituencies 
or "ridings" (Ref A), according to a September 5 press release from 
the PM's office.  Harper will launch the national campaign directly 
after meeting the Governor General.  At dissolution, the 
Conservative minority government held 127 seats, the Liberals 95, 
the Bloc Quebecois 48, the New Democratic Party (NDP) 30, and the 
Green Party one seat in the elected House of Commons.  There were 
three Independents.  The parliamentary dissolution cancels four 
incomplete by-election races, which will fold into the national 
campaign. 
 
¶3. (U) In triggering an election now, Harper pre-empts his own 
legislation passed in 2007 providing fixed-date elections on four 
year terms, with the first such election scheduled for October 19, 
¶2009.  Recently, Harper has argued that the existing minority 
Parliament is dysfunctional and that Canadians need greater 
certainty in unsure economic times.  Harper's government is the 
second-longest serving minority government in Canadian history (31 
months) and our contacts generally believe he will not pay a penalty 
for calling an early election. 
 
THE ECONOMY, THE ENVIRONMENT, AND LEADERSHIP 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) The economy, the environment, and leadership will be the 
principal campaign issues, according to the majority of our 
contacts.  The two major parties will offer distinct and 
incompatible visions of Canada's economic future.  PM Harper and 
Liberal leader Stephane Dion also plan to question each other's 
character, competence, integrity, and fitness to hold office, 
according to party insiders.  Neither side expects the conflict in 
Afghanistan to be a ballot box issue.  The Conservatives will run on 
their economic credentials and hit hard on Stephane Dion's "Green 
Shift" carbon tax.  Harper will also highlight his record on crime, 
tax cuts, defense and national security, defending Arctic 
sovereignty, national unity, and consumer and product safety.  The 
Liberals' Green Shift will be their primary policy plank (Ref C), 
supported by issues of child poverty, health care, social justice, 
culture and food safety (in direct competition with the left-leaning 
NDP).  Dion also told media he will run against what he termed 
Harper's "right-wing hidden agenda," Harper's relations with 
President Bush, and an ideology that makes Harper "more right-wing 
than John McCain."  Culture and the defense of Quebec's interests 
are central issues for the Bloc Quebecois. 
 
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC: THE MAJOR BATTLEGROUNDS 
------------------------------------------- 
Q------------------------------------------- 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Ontario and Quebec have the largest number of seats.  They 
also have most of the suburban and rural swing ridings, making them 
the principal battlegrounds.  Ontario is a key region for the 
Liberals who hold 62 of 106 seats in the province.  Since 2006 the 
Conservatives have targeted marginal Liberal seats in rural Ontario 
and have worked to supplant the Liberals as the first choice of 
federalist voters in Quebec against the Bloc.  The Conservatives 
dominate in the West, the Liberals in much of Ontario and Atlantic 
Canada, and the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec (Ref. B).  The campaign 
will be a series of highly regional, even local, contests.  Late 
August polls suggested that the parties begin the campaign close to 
their 2006 support levels when the Conservatives captured 36.3 
percent, the Liberals 30.2, the NDP 17.5, and the Bloc 10.5 percent 
of the national vote.  The fledgling Green Party's support has risen 
to 10 percent from 4.5 percent in 2006.  A party needs 155 seats to 
win a House of Commons majority.  The governing Conservatives need 
28 additional seats to achieve that objective. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶6. (SBU) The Conservatives are the best funded and positioned of the 
major parties to contest a fall election, according to many of our 
 
OTTAWA 00001171  002 OF 002 
 
 
contacts.  The snap campaign has caught the opposition Liberals off 
guard, according to several of our contacts.  The Liberals had been 
gearing up to defeat the Conservatives in Parliament later in the 
fall for an election in late October or November.  By forcing the 
issue now, Harper has taken control of the timing and seized the 
initiative.  The Conservatives reportedly wanted to hold the vote 
before the economy worsens and before the U.S. election, according 
to media reports.  Harper told reporters last week that he expects 
another minority government.  However, some local political analysts 
believe the Tories are capable of winning a majority. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The stakes are high for Liberal leader Stephane Dion, who 
starts the campaign on the defensive.  He lags his party in popular 
support.  The complexity of the Green Shift and its introduction 
amid high gas prices do not help the Liberals.  In a recent poll 
only 21 percent of Canadians trusted Dion to govern the country in 
tough economic times.  However, the Liberal brand is resilient and 
Dion is an untested -- and perhaps underrated -- national campaigner 
who could turn low expectations to his advantage.  His campaign 
performance will be a key to the election and critical to his 
political future.  Dion will face a mandatory leadership review at a 
national Liberal policy convention expected in 2009.  Both sides 
telegraphed to us that the campaign will be negative, centering on 
the personal battle between Dion and Harper.  In this contest, the 
NDP, Bloc Quebecois and Greens are secondary players, but with the 
potential decisively to impact the major parties in key three-way 
regional races. End comment 
WILKINS