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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001165 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON SENV CA
SUBJECT: TORIES POISED FOR MODEST GAINS IN QUEBEC 
 
REF: A) Montreal 246 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: With a fall federal election all but certain, our 
English and French-speaking contacts in Montreal told us that the 
Conservatives are well-positioned to add to their eleven seats in 
Quebec.  They downplayed the possibility of a major breakthrough, 
however, and said that seat changes in Quebec would be minor. 
Overall, they said that the election is more likely to be decided in 
neighboring Ontario province.  This cable complements Montreal's 
report on two ongoing federal by-election campaigns in Quebec 
scheduled for September 8 (Ref. A). End summary 
 
ELECTION COUNTDOWN 
------------------ 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) Canada is on an election countdown.  Although an election 
could come at any time, most observers expect the Governor General 
to dissolve Parliament between September 5 and 7 for Election Day on 
October 14.  The PM will likely cite opposition obstruction in 
Parliament and uncertain economic times as the basis for seeking a 
new mandate.  Opposition parties accuse the Conservatives of rushing 
to the polls in the belief that their chances of winning are better 
now than if they wait while the economy deteriorates.  Recent 
national and Quebec polls suggest that the Conservatives may be 
poised to make gains.  The launch of a national campaign would 
cancel three federal by-elections already in progress (including two 
in the Montreal-area ridings of Westmount-Ville Marie and 
Saint-Lambert) scheduled for September 8, and a fourth scheduled for 
September 22.  An early election would also override Harper's own 
legislation passed in 2007 introducing fixed-date elections on four 
year terms with the first such election set for October 19, 2009. 
 
CONSERVATIVES POISED FOR GAINS? 
------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) At almost 31 months, Harper's Conservative government is 
the second-longest serving minority government in Canadian history. 
As a result, our contacts said that Quebecers are unlikely to punish 
the Conservatives for pre-empting their fixed-date election law. 
Further, many of our contacts said that the Conservatives are 
well-positioned to wrest at least five seats from the Bloc Quebecois 
in rural Quebec (including in the Eastern Townships region and 
neighboring ridings close to those they already hold outside Quebec 
City) to add to the eleven the Conservatives currently hold in the 
province.  Our contacts believed that the Conservatives are 
increasingly emerging as the primary federalist alternative to the 
Bloc outside Montreal, but they agreed that the Conservatives will 
continue to be shut out of the island of Montreal which remains a 
Liberal fortress. 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) Overall, however, the majority of our interlocutors 
downplayed prospects for a major Conservative breakthrough in the 
province, arguing that Quebecers support a continued strong role for 
the Bloc in Ottawa and are comfortable with the minority status quo. 
 Consequently, many said they believed that the Bloc would hold most 
of its current 48 seats with only minor slippage.  Nonetheless, one 
well-connected Conservative insider refused to rule out greater 
gains, noting that historically Quebec rural seats have shown they 
can shift "en masse" and, once they begin to move, could "fall like 
dominoes."  In contrast, the majority of our contacts saw no chance 
of any movement for the Liberals whom they believed would hold their 
11 seats on the island of Montreal, but make no inroads outside the 
metropolitan area. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Several of our contacts said that neither the Conservatives 
nor the Liberals have effective organizations on the ground.  One 
Qnor the Liberals have effective organizations on the ground.  One 
Conservative insider noted that the Conservatives would probably get 
help from the right-leaning provincial Action Democratique du Quebec 
(ADQ) in rural Quebec, although he acknowledged that the usefulness 
of that help has dwindled with the ADQ's poll numbers.  He noted 
that the Conservatives could also benefit from discreet support from 
the provincial Liberal Party in suburban ridings (such as in the 
Saint-Lambert by-election on Montreal's south shore), where the 
provincial party may be prepared to work for whichever federal 
Liberal or Conservative candidate had the best chance of defeating 
the Bloc. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Many of our contacts agreed that the federal Liberals have 
not rebuilt their organization after it was hollowed out by the 
sponsorship scandal, but affirmed that their support remains solid 
on the island of Montreal.  They noted that PM Harper's Quebec 
cabinet ministers have not been strong performers, including 
Heritage Minister Josee Verner and former Foreign Affairs Minister 
Maxime Bernier, although none were likely to lose their seats. 
Transport Minister Lawrence Cannon was probably the most solid 
performer.  In particular, International Trade Minister Michel 
Fortier -- an appointed senator who has committed to run in the 
Montreal-area riding of Vaudreuil-Soulanges in the next election -- 
has not been a key player and is highly unlikely to win his seat. 
 
 
OTTAWA 00001165  002 OF 002 
 
 
THE ECONOMY TRUMPS THE ENVIRONMENT 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) The economy and pocket-book concerns, especially rising gas 
prices, appear to be the major ballot box issues for Quebecers. 
They are the staunchest supporters in Canada of the Kyoto Protocol, 
but many of our contacts asserted that the federal Liberals' Green 
Shift plan had gained no more traction in Quebec than in the rest of 
the country.  Many of them seemed to agree that Quebecers neither 
understand Green Shift nor believe it is suited to the province. 
Many strenuously refuted the argument -- common in western Canada -- 
that the Green Shift was designed to appeal to Quebec and central 
Canada.  Many of our interlocutors said that Quebecers neither asked 
for the Green Shift, nor are grateful for it, underlining that the 
federal Liberals should expect no reward.  Moreover, they noted that 
Liberal leader Stephane Dion had failed to distinguish himself 
sufficiently from the Conservatives on any issue except the 
environment, and had had little to say on the economy. 
 
 
STATUS QUO IS FINE 
------------------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) Overall, Quebecers seem relatively satisfied with the 
status quo and would endorse a second minority Conservative 
government, according to the majority opinion of our contacts with 
whom we spoke recently.  One noted that "minorities mean goodies" 
and that Quebecers enjoy the benefit of the Bloc Quebecois's vocal 
advocacy in Ottawa and of a federal government eager to win seats in 
the province.  Our contacts also expressed agreement that the Bloc, 
which rode a wave of public anger over the sponsorship scandal in 
the 2004 and 2006 elections, would be hard pressed to repeat these 
successes.  Many predicted that shifts in Quebec seats would be 
minor and not enough to make the difference between a majority and 
minority government.  Our contacts' insights were largely supported 
by a CROP poll in Quebec on August 27 that suggested that 
Conservative support had risen to 31 percent to 30 percent for the 
Bloc Quebecois, largely due to the weakness of the federal Liberals 
than enthusiasm for the Conservatives.  As a result, it suggested 
that the Bloc could lose marginal seats where three-way races had 
split the federalist vote. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Comment: In the absence of a galvanizing issue in a 
federal election campaign, and the likelihood that seat changes will 
be minimal, Montreal contacts characterized the coming election 
campaign as "a bit of a side-show" and more likely to be an exercise 
in "clearing the air" than a debate that resonates with Quebecers. 
They expected that the key electoral battleground would be in 
neighboring seat-rich Ontario where a large number of swing ridings 
make the election outcome unpredictable.  However, Quebec voters 
have a history of confounding predictions -- including the 
Conservatives' unexpected gain of ten seats in the 2006 election -- 
and much will depend on the election campaign itself and the 
performance of the party leaders. 
WILKINS