VZCZCXRO1500
RR RUEHLN RUEHPOD RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHMO #2752/01 2561105
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 121105Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9958
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 002752 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM RS
SUBJECT: A LOOK AHEAD TO THE OCTOBER 12 REGIONAL ELECTIONS 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: On October 12, five regions (Chechnya, 
Zabaykalskiy Kray, Irkutsk, and Kemerovo and Sakhalin 
Oblasts) will elect their respective regional parliaments. 
Also, throughout Russia over 90 municipal and by-elections 
will take place, including by-elections in Chukotka.  United 
Russia has taken the elections most seriously, and is 
expected to emerge victorious in each region, with Irkutsk 
promising mild competition with Just Russia.  Ballots in the 
regions will feature between four and seven party choices, 
with all four of the parties represented in the State Duma 
included, but none of the traditional "liberal" parties.  The 
Union of Right Forces is considering challenging in court 
their failure to be registered, but observers downplay 
prospects for success, questioning both the merits of the 
case and the political atmosphere.  Many observers expect 
that regional United Russia party/government leaders will be 
judged by the results they deliver, determining their own 
political futures in advance of the party's November national 
congress.  Septels will follow reporting on specific issues 
and personalities in each region, as well as analysis of the 
activities of major parties.  End Summary. 
 
GENERAL BACKGROUND: ELECTORAL THRESHOLDS 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Regional elections are held in accordance with 
federal and regional electoral legislation and thus vary from 
region to region.  Regional parliaments can be elected either 
by proportional representation or by a mixed electoral 
system, in which some single-mandate candidates can still win 
seats in parliament despite their party's failure to register 
a candidate list.  Chechnya is the only region to use only 
proportional representation, so only parties will run and 
deputies will be selected from their respective party lists 
according to the results.  The other four regions will use a 
mixed electoral system: half of the deputies will be elected 
from party lists and half from single-mandate candidates, who 
may be party members or independent candidates.  The passing 
threshold to win party seats in all five regions is 7 
percent.  Law demands that at least two parties should be 
represented in each parliament.  Even if any one party wins 
more than 60 percent and all other parties each win less than 
the required 7 percent, the party with the second most votes 
will still get seats in the parliament. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The parliamentary parties -- those represented in 
the State Duma -- are exempt from collecting signatures of 
supporters and from paying an electoral pledge fee.  They 
have all successfully registered in all 5 regions, where 
ballots contain from 4 to 7 party choices.  All other 
registered parties wishing to participate in elections must 
either collect the signatures or pay the pledge fee.  Each 
region determines the number of signatures, the amount of the 
pledge, and the threshold for winning seats.  Pledge 
requirements for parties range from 1 million rubles (about 
40,000 USD) in Sakhalin to 6 million rubles (about 240,000 
USD) in Irkutsk.  These high fees resulted in non-Duma 
parties opting instead for the signature requirements.  None 
of the other traditional opposition "liberal" parties are 
registered to compete in the forthcoming elections. 
 
DISAPPOINTED OPPOSITION, FROM DENIAL TO ACCEPTANCE 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶4. (SBU) A September 10 media report stated that the Union of 
Right Forces (SPS) and Patriots of Russia parties may attempt 
to restore their party lists through the courts.  The report 
added that SPS officials believed the party could do well 
enough in the Kemerovo election to win seats in the regional 
parliament, but its own lawyers acknowledged that overturning 
registration denials through the courts would be exceptional. 
 Media reported September 12 that SPS is considering an 
urgent appeal to the European Court of Human Rights to 
attempt to compel authorities to include the party on 
regional ballots.  Yabloko leader Sergey Mitrokhin told the 
press that his party will not seek to overturn their denial 
in Sakhalin Oblast because "experience shows that an appeal 
to the courts is meaningless...We have no courts, just as 
there is no election."  Mitrokhin pointed to Yabloko's 
failure to overturn his party's registration denial in 
previous St. Petersburg regional elections. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Patriots of Russia Party vice-chairman Nadezhda 
Korneeva complained in a media report that her party had been 
unfairly excluded from ballots in Sakhalin and Irkutsk, 
adding that "all of our (signature) collectors are willing to 
come to court and prove" that the signatures are valid. 
According to her, current election laws are prejudiced in 
favor of Duma parties because they do not need to collect 
signatures or make an electoral pledge. 
 
 
MOSCOW 00002752  002 OF 003 
 
 
"LOCOMOTIVES" 
------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) It has become traditional in Russian elections for 
party lists to be topped by party leaders during federal 
elections and by heads of regions and federal or regional 
party leaders during regional campaigns.  These top-level 
functionaries, dubbed "locomotives," as a rule refuse to join 
the parliaments.  They are involved in the campaigns in hope 
that their authority and popularity will help their 
respective parties to win.  In regional campaigns, United 
Russia usually tops its party lists with governors and mayors 
of the regional capitals.  The Communist Party (KPRF), LDPR, 
and Just Russia appoint their most popular federal and 
regional leaders to top their lists, although Just Russia 
until recently had been critical of the "locomotive" practice. 
 
¶7. (SBU) United Russia will head regional party lists with 
the following locomotives: Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov 
in Chechnya; Governor Ravil Geniatullin and Chita Mayor 
Anatoliy Mikhalev in Zabaykalskiy Kray; Governor Aman Tuleyev 
in Kemerovo; Governor Aleksandr Khoroshavin in Sakhalin; and 
Acting Governor Igor Yesipovskiy in Irkutsk (The election 
results will determine whether Yesipovskiy will continue to 
be "acting.")  Moscow Carnegie Center regional expert Nikolay 
Petrov told us that he expects United Russia to emerge 
victorious in each region, but that in Irkutsk intra-party 
competition between rival clans under the United Russia roof 
could leave the party apparatus there in worse shape as a 
result of the elections.  Duma Deputy Oksana Dmitrieva (Just 
Russia) confirmed to us that her party regards Irkutsk as the 
only region in which it stands to do well on October 12 - 
both due to the party's appeal and to United Russia 
vulnerabilities there. 
 
REGIONAL BREAKDOWNS 
------------------- 
 
Chechnya 
-------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) The republic will elect only its second parliament. 
An amendment to the Chechen constitution, passed by 
referendum in December 2007, transformed the bicameral 
parliament (elected in November 2005) to unicameral in order 
to strengthen vertical power and bring it in line with other 
regional parliaments.  The number of parliamentarians has 
been lowered from 61 to 41.  Chechnya will elect its 
parliament through a proportional representation system, so 
only parties may run in the election.  Nine parties submitted 
candidate lists, and authorities approved seven to appear on 
the ballot in the following order: United Russia, Liberal 
Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), Patriots of Russia, Peace 
and Unity, People's Union, Communist Party (KPRF) and Just 
Russia (SR). 
 
¶9. (SBU) Authorities denied registration to Union of Right 
Forces (SPS) and Zelenye (an ecological party) because more 
than 20 percent of submitted signatures were deemed 
deficient.  According to a recent opinion poll by the Center 
of Strategic Studies and Development of Civil Society in 
North Caucasus (SK-Strategia), 84.3 percent of the Chechen 
Republic's population intend to vote. 
 
¶10. (SBU) In an August 27 media report, political expert 
Aleksandr Kynev predicted that only the Communists would have 
a chance of joining United Russia in the Chechen parliament. 
The other parties, he observed, are running exclusively for 
the sake of retaining their registered status. 
 
Irkutsk 
------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Irkutsk is a new, enlarged region since Ust-Orda 
Burta Autonomous Oblast joined it in January 2008.  It will 
elect its first parliament of 50 deputies.  Seven parties 
submitted candidate lists, and authorities approved six to 
appear on the ballot, in the following order: Ecological 
Party "Zelenye," United Russia, KPRF, LDPR, Agrarian Party, 
and SR. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Authorities denied registration to Patriots of 
Russia because more than 20 percent of the submitted 
signatures were deemed deficient. 
 
Kemerovo 
-------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) Thirty elections of different levels will take 
place throughout the region on October 12.  Voters will elect 
12 mayors and 17 representative bodies of self-government. 
 
MOSCOW 00002752  003 OF 003 
 
 
The regional parliament is 36 deputies strong, 18 elected 
each from party lists and single-mandate candidates.  There 
are 150 claimants to the 36 seats, 80 from the parties and 70 
from single-mandate candidates.  Six parties submitted 
candidate lists, and authorities approved four to appear on 
the ballot, in the following order: United Russia, KPRF, SR, 
and LDPR. 
 
¶14. (SBU) Authorities denied registration to Union of Right 
Forces (SPS) and Party of Peace and Unity because more than 
10 percent of the submitted signatures were deemed deficient. 
 
Sakhalin 
-------- 
 
¶15. (SBU) The region will elect deputies to 28 seats in the 
regional parliament.  Seven parties submitted candidate 
lists, and authorities approved four (the State Duma parties) 
to appear on the ballot: SR, LDPR, KPRF and United Russia. 
 
¶16. (SBU) Authorities denied registration to Yabloko and 
Patriots of Russia because of reported deficiencies in their 
submitted signatures, and People's Union failed to collect 
the required number of signatures. 
 
Zabaykalskiy Kray 
----------------- 
 
¶17. (SBU) Zabaykalskiy Kray is a new region in the Russian 
Federation created on March 1, 2008, with the merger of Chita 
Oblast and Aginsk Buryat Autonomous Okrug.  In its first 
parliament since the merger, it will elect 50 deputies, half 
from party lists and half from single-mandate candidates. 
 
¶18. (SBU) Seven parties notified the election commission of 
their intention to participate in elections to the Kray's 
parliament.  Authorities denied Ecological Party "Zelenye" 
for failing to collect enough signatures; six other parties 
submitted all required documents on time.  The four 
parliamentary parties (United Russia, KPRF, LDPR, and SR) 
have been approved, but final information is not yet 
available on registration for the Agrarian Party or the 
Democratic Party.  A September 10 media report quoted 
Democratic Party leader Andrey Bogdanov as saying that his 
party knew that their staff "did not collect signatures 
entirely correctly." 
 
BY-ELECTIONS IN CHUKOTKA 
------------------------ 
 
¶19. (SBU) The parliament of Chukotka has three vacant seats 
to fill during its by-elections on October 12.  The former 
governor, Roman Abramovich, has been registered as one of the 
candidates.  His former deputies, Andrey Gorodilov and 
Aramais Dallakyan, are running from two other single-mandate 
districts.  There are only 12 deputies in the Chukotka 
government, of which 6 each are elected from party lists and 
single-mandate districts.  Thus, it is very likely that 
one-fourth of the parliament will be staffed by Abramovich 
and his people. 
 
¶20. (SBU) Comment: In the view of many experts, the elections 
are more about the ability of regional United Russia leaders 
to deliver for the party and thereby make their case to the 
national leadership for remaining in their party and 
government positions.  The election results, together with 
United Russia plans to re-assess how regional party and 
government officials are selected, will be a major topic for 
discussion at United Russia's November national congress. 
BEYRLE