VZCZCXRO0616
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #2765/01 2551247
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 111247Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3246
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUEAHLA/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY
RHMFIUU/CDR USNORTHCOM
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 002765 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM SNAR KCRM MX
SUBJECT: GOM'S PROPOSES INCREASES IN SECURITY AND JUSTICE 
SPENDING 
 
REF: MEXICO 2764 
 
Increased Security Spending 
--------------------------- 
¶1. On September 8 the GOM sent the 2009 budget to Congress 
for debate and approval.  The most eye-catching aspect of the 
budget was President Calderon's announcement of a "near 40 
percent" increase for security and justice.  According to our 
math, security spending in real terms would actually rise by 
32.9 percent in the amount of MX$54bn (US$5.14bn) ) 
accounting for the budget's 2009 projection for inflation at 
3.8 percent and growth of 3 percent.  Calderon said that the 
security budget had to be increased because "security, 
justice, and law and order" are the key challenges facing the 
country. He reiterated that his administration would continue 
with its current strategy of using the army and the navy to 
support the police in the war against drug-trafficking gangs. 
 (Comment:  As the overall budget projects increased spending 
by just 5.7% in real terms, there will clearly be some big 
losers: Transportation and Communication, as well as 
Agriculture will see some significant cuts. See reftel. End 
Comment.) 
 
¶2.  Calderon was speaking about the security budget at a 
ceremony to celebrate the achievements of the federal police 
force and to confirm promotions. He repeated his promise to 
overhaul the police and improve training and also to increase 
public confidence by increasing citizens' monitoring of the 
federal force.  The president said that the GOM would 
continue with its national system for police training and 
development (Sistema Nacional de Desarrollo Policial); its 
efforts to coordinate various police forces, intelligence 
gathering (the Sistema Unico de Informacion Criminal) and the 
overall harmonization of the country's  different federal, 
state, and municipal police forces under the &Platform 
Mexico8 computer system. 
 
Breakdown for Security Secretariats 
----------------------------------- 
¶3.  If approved, the respective budgets for the Public 
Security Secretariat (SSP) would increase by 49.8%; the 
Attorney General's Office (PGR), 29.2%; the Interior 
Secretariat (SEGOB), 25.1%; the National Defense Secretariat 
(SEDENA), 16.1%; and the Navy (SEMAR), 12.3%. The sum total 
of the budgets for these ministries would increase by 
MX$22.5bn, from MX$88.1bn to MX$110.6bn (or 5.2% of 
programmable public expenditure).  (Comment:  The difference 
in the referenced MX$54bn security spending increase versus 
the MX$22.5bn increase in the budgets of the security 
ministries is likely due to both the increases in the 
judicial branch's budget as well as security/justice related 
budget line items that do not necessarily fall under the 
security ministries, purview. End Comment. 
 
More Spending Necessary, But Alone Not the Solution 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
¶4. (SBU)  According to Mexican security analyst Jorge Chabat, 
the GOM's response over the past decade to citizens' demands 
for increased security has been more investment in police 
personnel and resources in combating crime. Unfortunately, 
this increased spending has done little to curb insecurity. 
Today, Mexico has more than half a million police officers, 
4.8 for every 1000 inhabitants, which places it above the 
United States in the index of agents per capita. Furthermore, 
in the last decade, the security budget has increased by a 
factor of almost six.  Despite the increase in resources, 
crime rates are at the same, or even higher, levels with one 
compounding aspect: impunity is also on the rise. According 
to an analysis conducted by scholars from the Citizen 
Security, Criminal Justice, and Human Rights project of the 
Center of Research for Development (CIDAC), with data from 
2007, 98 percent of crimes go unpunished. 
 
¶5. (SBU) On the other hand, Chabat expressed optimism about 
Calderon's security and justice reform plans and noted that 
increased spending was necessary to implement them.  "There 
is no short term solution," he said, "changing police and 
judicial institutions will be an inevitably long-term 
process."  The difference this time is that the current 
administration is taking concrete steps toward achieving that 
end, rather than simply throwing money at poor performers. 
Comment 
------- 
 
MEXICO 00002765  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶6. (SBU)  The increased security budget is a clear reflection 
of the current public alarm over growing crime and violence, 
and Calderon's effort to articulate the high priority he is 
giving to combating crime.  Over the past few weeks, public 
safety has been on the top of the political agenda ) partly 
overshadowing other issues such as energy reform ) and will 
remain a significant public issue, putting constant pressure 
on the GOM to show results.  Moreover, it will remain a 
constant source of acrimony between federal, state and local 
governments, and political parties. Legislators have kept 
themselves busy dealing with the public security crisis ) 
all three major parties have introduced bills they say are 
designed to curb violence.  However, politicians we have 
spoken with in recent days say it will be difficult for 
opposition elements to take issue with Calderon's security 
spending priorities, given the public's growing alarm. 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American 
Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / 
GARZA