VZCZCXRO5529
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLU #0693/01 2481743
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 041743Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY LUANDA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5006
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LUANDA 000693 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM AO
SUBJECT: ELECTION EVE PREDICTIONS:  PEACEFUL, CREDIBLE, 
HARDLY FAIR, BUT STILL A STEP ON THE LONG PATH TO DEMOCRACY 
 
REF: LUANDA 692 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Angola is fast approaching a pivotal moment in its 
much troubled history.  Within hours, polling booths across 
Angola will open for the first time in 16 years and only the 
second time in the history of the nation.  At 7:00 AM on 
Friday, September 5, about 12,400 voting stations are slated 
to begin the 11-hour voting day.  Even before the first vote 
is cast, however, these elections have already made history 
in the sense that the now-concluded campaign was free from 
the deep fear that permeated the elections of 1992, when both 
the MPLA and UNITA openly and vigorously armed their 
respective supporters in the run-up to the elections and 
subsequently.  One observer of that time remarked to the 
Ambassador that supporters of both parties were so armed and 
tensions so high then that the outbreak of violence was 
inevitable.  Another observer who was in Luanda during the 
,92 campaign said residents feared then the pick-up trucks 
filled with angry, drunk, armed young men, &campaigning8 
for their respective parties, who terrified the population in 
the tense days leading up to the election.  In contrast, the 
last day of official campaigning here yesterday (September 3) 
featured caravans of pick-up trucks and vans, filled with 
cheering, singing, flag-waving party campaigners, who evoked 
support and curiosity, but certainly not fear, from 
passers-by.  In this significant way, Angola has moved 
smartly beyond a sad chapter in its history. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) According to the Embassy,s own direct observations 
in Luanda and in the provinces and to leaders of the EU, 
SADC, AU, Pan-African Parliament, Community of 
Portuguese-Speaking Countries and other international and 
national election observer groups, the campaign across Angola 
has been peaceful, despite scattered incidents of 
intimidation and violence (reftels).  The Israeli Ambassador 
told the Ambassador that his survey of numerous Israeli 
companies scattered around Angola, including in the 
diamond-rich Lunda provinces and other provinces that were 
greatly impacted by fighting following the 1992 election, 
revealed consistent descriptions of the campaign atmosphere 
as akin to a festival or celebration, a marked contrast to 
the circumstances of 16 years ago. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The National Election Commission (CNE) gets high 
marks from most Angolans and outside observers for its 
efforts to pull off these elections.  Although at times a bit 
slow out of the starting blocks, the CNE has manifested high 
energy and creativity in utilizing untested and often vague 
electoral laws to guide election preparations.  The CNE, 
though at times hamstrung by bureaucracy and its top-down 
organization, seems genuine in its efforts to conduct the 
elections professionally.  Even leaders of opposition parties 
have lauded the work of the Commission.  Nonetheless, 
logistical snafus at the opening of some stations and 
throughout the voting day are inevitable, according to CNE 
President Caetano de Sousa.  And, it remains to be seen 
whether election-day reality will reflect de Sousa,s 
optimism that the CNE,s nationwide network of trouble 
shooters will quickly resolve any logistical problems, 
enabling balloting to proceed smoothly.  In any case, these 
elections have been a learning process for the CNE.  As 
Caetano de Sousa said to the Ambassador on September 3, these 
experiences will prove invaluable as the Commission prepares 
for future elections. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Despite the peaceful nature of the campaign and 
the CNE,s diligence in organizing the elections, these 
elections cannot be considered &fair8 by any definition of 
that term.  Enjoying the advantages of incumbency, the ruling 
MPLA has taken full advantage of the government,s control of 
the nation,s only daily newspaper, the nation,s only 
nationwide radio network, and the nation,s only television 
channels.  Although the state media have given limited news 
coverage and the legally mandated air time (five minutes a 
day for TV and 10 minutes daily for radio) to each of the 14 
contending parties, the air waves and the daily newspaper are 
overwhelmingly dominated by generous coverage of the MPLA and 
the MPLA-led government,s reconstruction projects.  Adding 
to the unbalanced coverage, the state media go out of their 
way to give a negative twist to their already minimal news 
coverage of the opposition.  For example, recent TV coverage 
of a UNITA rally carried footage of the rally shot from a 
side angle that suggested the rally was sparsely attended, 
which was not the case.  MPLA also takes full advantage of 
its access to state resources, dispatching ministers and 
other government personnel throughout the country to campaign 
for the party as they carry out government business, 
blurring, if not erasing, the lines between government and 
party.  As Louisa Morgantini, head of the EU Election 
Observer Delegation here, put it, &You can never distinguish 
whether an act is an act of government or of the MPLA.8 
 
LUANDA 00000693  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
THE EMBASSY,S TAKE 
------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) We believe tomorrow,s elections will be peaceful 
and credible.  Peaceful in the sense that voters will not be 
subjected to an orchestrated campaign of intimidation or 
violence, though we anticipate scattered, spontaneous 
outbursts by voters frustrated by snags in electoral 
logistics or by party zealots who get swept up in the 
emotions of the moment.  Credible in the sense that 
participants in the election process, i.e, the voters and the 
various political parties, will accept and live with the 
results of the elections, despite the inevitable legal 
disputes and allegations that will arise from the process,s 
many imperfections and shortcomings.  Most importantly, we 
believe these elections will bolster confidence in the 
electoral process and, thus, set the stage for presidential 
elections next year and municipal elections thereafter, a 
significant initial step forward on Angola,s long path to 
democracy. 
 
¶6. (SBU) In terms of  assessing the electoral equation, we 
find several significant undefined variables, specifically, 
how do those Angolans who have yet personally to benefit from 
Angola,s explosive economic growth, i.e., the vast majority 
of the voters, manifest on election day their reality that 
they are on the short end of Angola,s economic stick.  We 
see three possible courses of action for these voters: 
express dissatisfaction by staying home on election day; 
express dissatisfaction by voting for anyone except the MPLA; 
or, vote for MPLA because that is the only party that they 
have known and, besides, the opposition parties do not offer 
appealing alternatives.  Our sense is that by and large the 
MPLA will reap a peace benefit, garnering good support from 
Angolans who are motivated most by their appreciation for the 
peace of the past six years.  In contrast, middle-class, 
better-educated Angolans, especially those in Luanda, may 
choose to vent their frustration by staying home tomorrow. 
In sum, we forecast that the MPLA will win the election in 
the sense that it will secure a majority of the seats in the 
new 220-seat National Assembly.  Whether the MPLA secures the 
more than two-thirds majority needed to rewrite the 
Constitution on its own is an open question. 
 
¶7. (SBU) As a last thought, we suggest that once the dust 
settles from this election and if the MPLA emerges with a 
comfortable victory, President Dos Santos will launch de 
facto the presidential election campaign, recognizing that he 
and his party cannot count on a peace dividend to deliver 
victory next time, that he must work now to keep voter 
support by endeavoring that more Angolans benefit from the 
nation,s wealth. 
MOZENA