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DE RUEHLJ #0414/01 2551410
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 111410Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6897
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 LJUBLJANA 000414 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CE 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SI
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION UP FOR GRABS 
 
REF:  A) LJUBLJANA 407, B) LJUBLJANA 367 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Conventional wisdom holds that incumbent PM Janez 
Jansa's Slovene Democratic Party (SDS) will win a plurality of votes 
on September 21, despite being dogged by scandal.  However, most 
observers also expect the combined weight of the Left opposition 
parties to be greater than that of SDS and its allies.  Thus the 
real excitement will begin the day after elections, when the two 
largest parties on the Left and Right -- Borut Pahor's Social 
Democrats and Jansa's SDS -- start trying to woo coalition partners. 
 The recent start-up party Zares ("For Truth") will likely place 
third and thus may play the role of kingmaker. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Ideology plays a relatively minor role in these elections; 
personality is far more important than politics in a country where 
there are probably no more than three degrees of separation between 
any randomly-selected pair of citizens.  In terms of size, 
Slovenia's population resembles West Virginia or New Mexico, but the 
population is far more homogeneous, making the elections here more 
akin to those of a large county in the U.S.  Inflation, taxes and 
economic crime - "the fight against tycoons" -- seem to be the major 
issues.  The latter is a popular theme, with every political party 
wanting to prosecute the other parties' tycoons.  Septel will deal 
with foreign policy issues and the possible impact of the elections 
on U.S. interests.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶3. (U) Following is a snapshot of the party landscape.  The complete 
candidate list includes 17 parties or groups, but we address only 
the 9 parties likely to gain enough votes to get into parliament. 
 
------------------------ 
SLOVENE DEMOCRATIC PARTY 
------------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) The Slovene Democratic Party (SDS) leads the governing 
coalition after getting 29 percent of the vote in the 2004 
elections.  The other coalition parties are New Slovenia (NSi), 
Slovene People's Party (SLS), and Democratic Party of Pensioners of 
Slovenia (DeSUS).  SDS is leading in the polls, but the big question 
is whether its traditional partners will gain enough seats to allow 
SDS to form a coalition.  But the main question after this election 
will be who is capable of forming a coalition. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Snapshot of SDS 
 
KEY MEMBERS: 
-- Janez Jansa, the president of the party and the PM; 
-- Milan Zver, Minister of Education and Sport and de facto deputy 
party leader; 
-- France Cukjati, President of the National Assembly; 
-- Branko Grims, President of the SDS Council. 
 
CONSTITUENCIES:  Supporters of SDS are mainly higher and middle 
educated people from towns and rural areas.  Janez Jansa, with his 
strong personality and determination, is the main attraction for SDS 
supporters.  Key support comes from areas south of Ljubljana: 
Grosuplje (Jansa's hometown), Ribnica, and Kocevje. 
 
POSITION ON KEY ISSUES: 
 
ECONOMIC CRIME - Jansa launched the "fight against tycoons."  SDS 
says it wants to change corporate takeover regulations in order to 
prevent non-transparent management buyouts. 
 
INFLATION - SDS plays down the high rate of inflation (at 6.7 
percent the highest in the Euro zone), blaming it on global 
increases in energy and food prices.  It predicts that inflation 
will go down in the next couple of months. 
 
TAXES - SDS began tax reforms in 2005 and has announced its 
intentions to continue by decreasing individual and business tax 
burdens.  One notable achievement of the reforms is the gradual 
reduction of the payroll tax, the tax that an employer is required 
to pay for each employee which will be completely eliminated by 
January 2009, in order to decrease the price of labor in Slovenia. 
 
POSSIBLE COALITIONS - SDS says it would offer cooperation to all 
parliamentarian parties if it gets the mandate for forming the new 
government, just as they did in 2004.  The most likely coalition is 
with current allies (NSi, SLS, and DeSUS), but a coalition with LDS 
or Zares is also possible. 
 
---------------- 
SOCIAL DEMOCRATS 
 
LJUBLJANA 00000414  002 OF 005 
 
 
---------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) SD was a member of ruling coalition from 1992 to 1996.  In 
January 1996, it left the coalition in a dispute over the 
government's positions on pensioners and social policy.  SD got 10 
percent of the 2004 vote and became part of the opposition.  In 
January 2007, after the collapse of the government-created party 
Liberal Democratic Party of Slovenia (LDS), four prominent members 
of LDS moved to SD, which thus became the strongest opposition 
party. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Snapshot of SD 
 
KEY MEMBERS: 
-- Borut Pahor, the president of the party and MEP; 
-- Miran Potrc, the Head of the SD Deputy Group in the Parliament; 
-- Dr. Igor Luksic, the vice president of the Party; 
-- Milan M. Cvikl, member of the Parliament and former head of the 
Parliamentarian Commission of Inquiry for Patria armored vehicles 
deal. 
 
CONSTITUENCIES:  Supporters of SD are left-leaning and have a 
generally positive view of Yugoslav socialism.  One of their 
historical touchstones remains "the defeat of facism.Its strongest 
voter support comes from regions that were occupied by the Italians 
during WWII (the Primorska region). An important magnet for the 
voters is SD party president Borut Pahor, whose somewhat lackluster 
motto is "the policy of compromise." 
 
POSITION ON KEY ISSUES: 
 
ECONOMIC CRIME - SD supports prosecution of economic crime and thus 
the so-called tycoons.  It blames non-transparent management buyouts 
under the current government for the creation of said tycoons. 
 
INFLATION - SD criticizes government fiscal policy, claiming 
spending is too high. 
 
TAXES - SD supports the further decrease of tax payers' burden, but 
would also change the tax scale in order to increase taxes on the 
richest people and abolish taxes for the poorest. 
 
POSSIBLE COALITIONS - SD has publicly said several times that it 
will not go into a grand coalition with SDS, and has made a 
gentleman's agreement to form a coalition with LDS and Zares, which 
are considered its natural allies.  However, most Slovenians do not 
entirely rule out the possibility of a grand coalition. 
 
------------------------ 
ZARES - THE NEW POLITICS 
------------------------ 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Former members of LDS, the leading party during Slovenia's 
first 15 years of independence, established Zares in October 2007. 
The party says it wants to create a new political platform promoting 
anodyne values such as openness, responsiveness, persistence, 
patience, and self discipline.  In polling, Zares places a distant 
third behind SDS and SD, with between 9 and 12 percent of the vote. 
It could, however, hold the balance of power in the next 
parliament. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Snapshot of Zares 
 
KEY MEMBERS: 
-- Gregor Golobic, the president of the party; 
-- Dr. Matej Lahovnik, the Head of the Zares Deputy Group in the 
Parliament; 
 
CONSTITUENCIES:  Supporters of Zares are not yet known since this 
will be the first election for the new party.  Since the party leans 
Left, it will most likely steal votes from SD and LDS. 
 
POSSIBLE COALITIONS - Zares is not excluding any possibility 
regarding post-election coalitions, but its most natural allies on 
the Left would be LDS and SD. 
 
------------------ 
AND THE REST . . . 
------------------ 
 
¶10. (U) Six other parties could win the necessary four percent to 
cross the threshold into parliament.  The Liberal Democrats of 
Slovenia (LDS) became the leading opposition party after being 
defeated by SDS in 2004.  Prior to 2004, LDS ruled Slovenia for 12 
 
LJUBLJANA 00000414  003 OF 005 
 
 
years.  In early 2007, the majority of its deputies left the party 
(12 out of 23 total) for other parties; four of them joined SD, 
seven established Zares, and one became an independent deputy.  In 
June 2007 the Party elected new leadership and began a rebuilding 
process. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Snapshot of LDS 
 
KEY MEMBERS: 
-- Katarina Kresal, the president of the party; 
-- Jelko Kacin, member of European Parliament. 
 
CONSTITUENCIES:  The number of LDS supporters has decreased 
significantly since the last election. Supporters are highly 
educated voters, entrepreneurs and managers of some successful 
companies in Slovenia. 
 
POSSIBLE COALITIONS - LDS does not exclude forming a coalition with 
any party in principle, but has a gentleman's agreement with SD and 
Zares, which are considered natural allies 
 
¶12. (SBU) New Slovenia (NSi) is a member of the ruling coalition and 
close to SDS.  It is a right-oriented party with a strong Christian 
component and support of the Catholic Church; it is the Slovenian 
equivalent of the traditional European Christian Democratic party. 
In 2004, NSi got 9 percent of voters' support.  Although it is not 
performing well in polls, NSi's voters are likely to show up at the 
voting booth in enough numbers to allow NSi to cross the 4 percent 
threshold. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Snapshot of NSi 
 
KEY MEMBERS: 
-- Andrej Bajuk, president of the party and the Minister of 
Finance; 
-- Lojze Peterle, one-time presidential candidate(?), president of 
the Council of NSi and MEP; 
 
CONSTITUENCIES:  NSi has a strong support among practicing Catholics 
--the Catholic Church openly supports NSi -- and thus more support 
in rural areas of Slovenia. 
 
POSSIBLE COALITIONS - NSi is close to SDS and SLS, but would 
probably go into a coalition with left of center parties as well. 
 
¶14.  (U) The Slovene People's Party (SLS) originates in the Farmers 
Union that was first renamed into the Slovene Farmers Union and 
later the Slovene People's Party.  It received 6.8 percent of the 
vote in the 2004 elections and has joined forces with the Slovene 
Youth Party (SMS) ina fight to make it over the threshold this time. 
 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Snapshot of SLS 
 
KEY MEMBERS: 
-- Bojan Srot, the new president of the party and the Mayor of 
Celje; 
-- Janez Podobnik, Minister of Environment and Spatial Planning; 
-- Radovan Zerjav, Minister of Transport. 
 
CONSTITUENCIES:  Supporters of SLS are mainly people with secondary 
education from rural parts of Slovenia who also support the Catholic 
Church.  SLS has a strong base of voters in farmers, but with its 
new president and a joint list with SMS, it also counts on some 
voters among younger generation. 
 
POSSIBLE COALITIONS - SLS's priority appears to be getting into 
government regardless of which parties are in power, so it could 
cooperate with any parties that enter parliament. 
 
¶16.  (U) The Democratic Party of Pensioners of Slovenia (DeSUS) was 
established in the early nineties.  In 2004 they barely crossed the 
threshold with 4.04 percent of voters' support and joined the ruling 
coalition.  As a "pensioners' party," DeSUS is considered more 
center-left and is often critical of PM Jansa's government. 
 
¶17.  (SBU) Snapshot of DeSUS 
 
KEY MEMBERS: 
-- Karel Erjavec, president of the party and the Minister of 
Defense; 
-- Franc Znidarsic, head of the deputy group in the Parliament. 
 
CONSTITUENCIES:  Supporters of DeSUS are mainly middle class 
 
LJUBLJANA 00000414  004 OF 005 
 
 
pensioners. 
 
POSSIBLE COALITIONS - DeSUS is an interest-based party and thus 
willing to join any government coalition that is not in conflict 
with its general principles- social protection for pensioners and 
the poor. 
 
¶18.  (SBU) The Slovene National Party (SNS) is a barely-defined 
party that has been surprisingly successful in all parliamentarian 
election since independence.  Until now it has always been in 
opposition.  In 2004, SNS received 6.27 percent of voters' support. 
Their vote is often difficult to predict because supporters are 
sometimes reluctant to associate themselves publicly with the 
party's nationalist platform.  They are a party to watch, and 
perhaps to watch out for. 
 
¶19.  (SBU) Candidate List Snapshot of SNS 
 
KEY MEMBERS: 
-- Zmago Jelincic, president of the party and head of the Deputy 
Group in the Parliament; 
 
CONSTITUENCIES:  Supporters of SNS are younger people, nationalists 
and disaffected supporters of the larger parties. 
 
POSSIBLE COALITIONS - SNS is traditionally an opposition party and 
most likely will stay in the opposition after this election, though 
SDS has said that it would consider a coalition with SNS. 
 
¶20. (U) Three former members of SNS who decided to leave Jelincic's 
SNS established Lipa on March 1, 2008.  Lipa claims to strive for 
the rule of law, democratic society, protection of environment, and 
equal opportunities for all citizens.  It is unlikely to gain enough 
votes to enter Parliament. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶21. (SBU)  Slovenian voters generally view the center-left parties 
as successors -- albeit once or twice removed -- to the old League 
of Communists of Slovenia, while the center-right is seen as closely 
associated with the Catholic Church.  True ideology plays a 
relatively minor role in Slovenian politics.  In a country of two 
million, where there are probably no more than three degrees of 
separation between any randomly-selected pair of Slovenians, 
personality is far more important than politics.  Thus the way the 
Patria scandal plays out over the next ten days will be an important 
factor in determining who will win the fight for the relative 
victory in this election: SDS with PM Janez Jansa or SD with leader 
of opposition Borut Pahor. 
 
¶22. (SBU) Although it is very likely that Jansa and SDS will receive 
a plurality of votes on September 21, he will have difficulty 
forming a coalition.  As a group, the left-of-center parties - SD, 
Zares and LDS - are likely to get a majority in the parliament. That 
would create a dilemma for President Tuerk, who must nominate the 
candidate for the Prime Minister.  Although the political tradition 
in Slovenia is that the President nominates the Prime Minister from 
the party that is the relative winner in election, the law does not 
require him to do so.  President Tuerk has indicated that he is 
keeping his options open. 
 
¶23. (SBU) We doubt that September 21 will be decisive in determining 
Slovenia's next government.  The real struggle will begin on 
September 22, when the parties begin coalition negotiations.  Once 
the talks start, we expect that party platforms and principles will 
take a back seat to political expediency.  If Jansa gets the nod to 
form a government, he will try to negotiate a coalition with the 
right-of-center parties plus at least one of the current opposition 
parties, most likely Zares or perhaps LDS.  SDS is even flirting 
with the idea of inviting Jelincic's nationalists to join a 
coalition.  A second possibility is that the President would give 
the mandate to the (likely) second-place Social Democrats, as the 
party most likely to be able to form a coalition. 
 
¶24.  (SBU) The third possibility, a grand coalition between Jansa's 
SDS and Pahor's SD, has faded in recent weeks as both sides have 
repeatedly ruled out the possibility.  We have also heard 
suggestions that President Tuerk might give the mandate to Zares -- 
a party that could easily form a coalition with either of the two 
larger parties -- if it finishes in a strong third place; and that 
Jelincic's nationalists could challenge Zares for third place.  We 
would put either outcome in the category of "possible surprises." 
 
LJUBLJANA 00000414  005 OF 005 
 
 
 
FREDEN