VZCZCXRO1267
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1383/01 2550736
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 110736Z SEP 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1874
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001383 
 
DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG 
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL PINR EFIN MOPS KPKO AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: PARADOXICAL DARFUR COMPENSATION CHAIRMAN WILL RETURN TO THE 
FIGHT DESPITE PROGRESS IN HIS COMMITTEE 
 
REF:  KHARTOUM 1276 
 
KHARTOUM 00001383  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In a September 4 meeting with poloffs, TDRA 
Compensation Committee Chairman Abulgasim Ahmed Abulgasim said that 
the many Darfur initiatives and proposals (including his own plan 
recently rejected by the NCP,) are unable to fundamentally change 
Darfur (reftel). In a remarkable turnaround from his last meeting 
with poloff, he argued that a military solution is the only option 
for Darfur's oppressed citizens, predicting that a second attack by 
a unified rebel front would succeed in overthrowing the government. 
Despite these forthright statements, the paradoxical Abulgasim 
stated that he has been pleased with progress in his compensation 
committee.   END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Abulgasim stated that despite an initially positive 
response to his Darfur initiative (reftel) by senior NCP officials 
such as Vice President Ali Osman Taha and HAC State Minister for 
Humanitarian Affairs (and ICC indictee) Ahmed Haroun, the NCP "took 
our plan and threw it in the garbage."  (Note:  A translation of the 
plan has been sent to AF/SPG and the office of the SE.  End Note.) 
Abulgasim noted that the Government is not serious about finding a 
political solution to Darfur.  He then quickly turned to the 
military options of the rebels. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Abulgasim stated that SAF forces operating in Darfur were 
severely weakened by the recent fighting, in part because their 
tactical decisions were made based on erroneous information 
emanating from a flawed military intelligence apparatus.  He stated 
that NISS agents are afraid to leave the cities of El Fasher, El 
Geneina and Nyala, and rely instead on various informants who 
distort information to suit their own tribal and personal agendas. 
"The information they receive is very limited, and fifty percent of 
it is wrong," he asserted. He also accused Minister of Defense, and 
Bashir crony, Abdelrahim Mohammed Hussein of incompetence.  "He was 
a classmate of mine, and let me tell you, he is stupid," he said. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Abulgasim continued that the rebel movements were coming 
together and would fight until taking control of lands encompassed 
within Darfur's 1916 borders. "Once we've liberated those lands, we 
will negotiate with the central government," he said. "If they 
refuse, we'll continue on to the 1885 borders" (which included much 
of Kordofan).  He also predicted a second attack by JEM, possibly 
allied with SLM, after the rainy season.  He stated that this attack 
would take place sometime between October and December, citing his 
colleagues in the field.  "Don't stay in Khartoum," he jokingly told 
poloffs, asserting that this time, JEM would succeed. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Despite labeling the Darfur Peace Agreement as 
"completely dead," Abulgasim stated that his own compensation 
committee is making significant progress.  Abulgasim said the World 
Bank and international consulting firms have been invaluable to the 
committee's work.  He stated that he expects the committee to 
publish a major report in October.  Identifying and recording 
victims entitled to compensation, establishing a scheme of 
collective compensation incorporating microfinance programs, and 
establishing the organizational infrastructure needed for this work 
are all priorities for the commission according to AbulGasim. 
(Abulgasim promised to deliver a draft plan to poloffs as soon as it 
becomes available.)  When asked about the conflict between his 
pessimism regarding the peace process and optimism with respect to 
his own committee, Abulgasim responded, "We are doing what we can to 
establish the mechanisms needed for compensation, and even if I go 
back to the fight, that system will still be in place," noted 
Abulgasim. 
 
COMMENT 
- - - - 
¶6.  (SBU) Abulgasim was in good humor despite the NCP's rejection of 
his Darfur plan, his gloomy outlook on the peace process, and his 
prediction of renewed war following the rainy season.  Although 
appearing somewhat schizophrenic, Abulgasim's contradictory remarks 
and demeanor are not unlike many Sudanese interlocutors and seasoned 
observers (or Embassy Khartoum, for that matter).  Many former 
rebels like Abulgasim confidently proceed in their work, despite 
internal and external pressures, the country's extreme volatility 
and bleak prospects for immediate peace, and longstanding competing 
interests.  We will continue to watch Abulgasim closely in the 
coming months.  End comment. 
 
BIO NOTE 
-------- 
¶7. (SBU) Abulgasim told poloffs that his father was a Member of 
Parliament in the 1950s and his mother was daughter of a Darfur 
Sultan. A civil engineer by trade, he lived and worked for many 
years in Saudi Arabia as a consultant before returning to Darfur in 
 
KHARTOUM 00001383  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
2003 to join the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM). He stated that he 
helped procure financing for rebel activities. Upon the 
disintegration of the SLM he sided with Abdul Wahid's faction, but 
changed sides during the 2006 peace negotiations in Abuja to become 
affiliated with the loose grouping of field commanders known as the 
G-19.  Soon after, he said, he returned to Saudi Arabia but was 
drawn back into the fold to work on unification of the rebel 
factions. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Abulgasim told poloffs that while in Saudi Arabia, he 
participated in a panel discussion organized by the Sudanese 
Consulate in Jeddah where he clashed with Sudanese officials by 
expressing support for UNSC Resolution 1706 to deploy peacekeeping 
troops in Darfur.  Following this incident he was "kidnapped" by 
Saudi security forces and forcibly returned to Sudan, where he was 
jailed from September 28, 2006 to March 29, 2007. Upon his release, 
Abulgasim stated he received personal apologies from Vice President 
Ali Osman Taha and NISS Chief Salah Ghosh.  He noted that Ghosh even 
intervened with Saudi authorities after they denied him a visa. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Abulgasim stated that soon after his release he was 
appointed by President Bashir to head up the Transitional Darfur 
Regional Authority's (TDRA) Compensation Commission, albeit without 
his prior knowledge or consent. "I heard about my appointment on 
television," he quipped, noting that he refused to accept it. 
Instead, he traveled to Arusha, Tanzania for rebel unification 
talks. It was there that other rebel leaders "forced" Abulgasim to 
accept the role of TDRA Compensation Commissioner. "They thought I'd 
do a good job," he said. 
 
FERNANDEZ