VZCZCXRO4864
PP RUEHPW
DE RUEHBUL #2416/01 2480410
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 040410Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5391
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002416 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG 
NSC FOR JWOOD 
OSD FOR SHIVERS 
CG CJTF-101, POLAD, JICCENT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF
SUBJECT: THINKING AHEAD ABOUT ELECTION CHALLENGES AT THE IEC 
 
 ¶1.  (SBU)  Daoud Ali Najafi, Chief Technical Officer of the 
Independent Elections Commission (IEC), is thinking ahead 
about how to resolve potential challenges to the legitimacy 
of the electoral process.  Facing widespread public 
speculation that insecurity will discourage voter 
registration, and subsequently yield a discrediting low 
turnout on voting day in 2009, Dr. Najafi has prepared his 
"contingency plans." 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
SOLUTIONS TO LOW PARTICIPATION: MOBILE TEAMS AND MORE TIME 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  If the IEC's operational data analysis shows voter 
registration in some areas to be much lower than official 
population estimates would suggest, the IEC will investigate 
whether the cause is inaccessibility or insecurity, and 
devise an appropriate solution.  For inaccessibility, the IEC 
will consider transferring staff from the voter registration 
site in the district centers (capitals) to new, more remote 
voter registration locations in that district.  Likewise, if 
low turnout plagues the one-month intensive voter 
registration period in a particular region, the IEC may set 
aside extra funds to keep district-center voter registration 
sites there open for a longer period.  Keeping a voter 
registration facility open at the IEC provincial headquarters 
is another option, and would incur no additional cost. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  The IEC's mobile teams also offer a good 
alternative for reaching both remote and violence-prone 
areas, even districts where government control is weak, 
according to Dr. Najafi. The district-level IEC civic 
educators, Dr. Najafi says, may choose to open discussions 
with local and tribal leaders to persuade them to accept the 
mobile teams as "guests" under traditional norms, ensuring 
the team will have both access and security.  Like a fixed 
voter registration site, each mobile team will have five IEC 
staff.  These five staff will travel in one vehicle, stopping 
to register voters in an area for a day or two, either by 
prior arrangement or simply by going door-to-door. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
PROTECTING THE IEC"S POLITICAL INDEPENDENCE 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Dr. Najafi is also working to defend the 
independence of the Commission and rebuff potential criticism 
that its technical decisions and operations have partisan 
motives. He recognizes that the IEC will need to show its 
data and analysis to forestall criticism that districts with 
Karzai supporters might benefit disproportionally from 
extended registration.  Najafi turned down Interior Minister 
Zarar's August 28 request to swap around the provinces 
designated for Phase One of voter registration, even though 
Zarar dwarfs Najafi in both rank and political clout. 
 
¶5. (SBU)  Najafi strongly opposes the National Assembly's 
draft law proposing to subject the Commissioners to 
legislative approval. It is unconstitutional, says Najafi, 
because the Constitution defines both the standing of the IEC 
(Articles 156 and 157) and specifically lists senior 
officials subject to legislative approval, without mentioning 
the IEC. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Najafi argues the law would, moreover, introduce a 
crippling partisanship.  The National Assembly took two years 
to approve the justices of the Supreme Court, and, Najafi 
says, would certainly dicker longer over IEC commissioners. 
(Najafi, like many legislators, appears to be engaging in 
amateur constitutional interpretation to suit his argument; 
the translated text on legislative concurrence on justices 
and the election commissioners is virtually identical.) 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Dr. Najafi believes that the impetus behind the 
new law on the IEC is largely the festering quarrel between 
Lower House speaker Qanooni and IEC Chief Commissioner Dr. 
Ludin, which dates from Ludin's opposition to Qanooni's 
ambitions when Ludin served in the National Assembly 
 
KABUL 00002416  002 OF 002 
 
 
Secretariat.  In discussions with the legislative committee, 
Dr. Najafi drily noted that poll data show that legislators' 
claim to represent the populace is weaker than the 
President's: Karzai won with 55 per cent of the vote, but 
most National Assembly members polled 20 per cent or less. 
WOOD