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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 001677 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP 
NSC FOR EPHU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL KDEM KISL ID
SUBJECT: STRONG CANDIDATES WIN IN TWO MAJOR INDONESIAN PROVINCES 
 
REF: A. JAKARTA 1664 
     ¶B. JAKARTA 1551 
     ¶C. JAKARTA 633 AND PREVIOUS 
 
JAKARTA 00001677  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (U) This message is Sensitive but Unclassified.  Please handle 
accordingly.  It was jointly drafted with U.S. Consulate Medan. 
 
¶2.  (U) Summary.  Reputations for good governance and hard 
grassroots campaigning helped gubernatorial candidates gain apparent 
victories in successive gubernatorial elections in two southern 
Sumatran provinces on September 3 and 4.  An unofficial but usually 
reliable quick count of the September 3 Lampung Province 
gubernatorial elections gave an overwhelming victory to a coalition 
led by the nation's second-largest party, Indonesian Democratic 
Party of Struggle (PDI-P).  In Sumatra's September 4 election, the 
nation's biggest party Golkar squeaked out a victory, according to 
quick counts.  These are important victories for both parties for 
building momentum in the lead-up to 2009 national Parliamentary 
elections, particularly for Golkar, which has performed abysmally in 
gubernatorial elections to date.  End Summary. 
 
¶3.  (U) PDI-P notched up an impressive eighth gubernatorial election 
victory on September 3, with a landslide victory in Lampung 
Province, on the southernmost tip of Sumatra.  Retired two-star 
general and former Lampung governor Sjachroedin Z.P. and running 
mate Umar Said garnered 42 percent of the vote, according to a 
normally reliable quick count by a respected public opinion 
organization, with a two percent margin of error.   PDI-P won easily 
on its own strength, easily outdistancing a coalition of Golkar 
Party and two major Muslim parties which got only 21 percent of the 
vote. 
 
WISE ELECTORATE 
 
¶4. (U)  According to a Lampung University political observer, Ari 
Darmastuti, voters chose "wisely" based on real issues, and not 
based on candidates' charisma or largesse.  According to one public 
opinion expert, recent surveys had shown that Sjachroedin/Said's 
widespread popularity cut across ethnicities and religions. 
 
¶5. (U) Sjachroedin had promised to build a bridge across the Sunda 
Strait providing a crucial direct transport link with Java island. 
He also pledged to provide free public education, better 
infrastructure for investors, and to turn Lampung into an 
agricultural and bio-ethanol hub.  With its population of over 6 
million -- who migrated over the years from Java and Bali -- and 
rich production of coffee, cocoa and cloves, Lampung is one of 
Indonesia's more important provinces. 
 
GOLKAR LIKELY WINNER IN SOUTH SUMATRA 
 
¶6.  (U) In Lampung's neighboring province of South Sumatra, two-term 
Regent of Musi Banyu Asin Regency Alex Noerdin apparently defeated 
sitting governor of South Sumatra Syahrial Oesman in September 4 
local elections, with over 50 percent of the vote, according to 
normally reliable quick counts compiled by well-regarded survey 
organizations.  Several quick counts estimated that Noerdin got 51 
to 52 percent of the vote, with Oesman close behind at 47 to 49 
percent, with a margin of error of one to two percent.  With a 
population of 7.3 million, South Sumatra is strategically situated 
on the South China Sea shipping lanes and is an important center of 
commerce, with a rich plantation sector. 
 
¶7.  (U) Golkar badly needed this victory, having won only one 
gubernatorial election (Jakarta governorship) and with few other 
local elections victories in its belt.  Noerdin was supported by 
Golkar, two major Muslim parties - Crescent Moon and Star Party 
(PBB) and the National Mandate Party (PAN) - as well as  President 
Yudhoyono's Democrat Party (PD). 
 
¶8.  (U) Noerdin is a popular reform-minded local regent known for 
actively supporting social programs including education, and health 
care services and sports for the poor, as well as a pro-business 
 
JAKARTA 00001677  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
policy.  Oesman was supported by PDI-P, Prosperous Justice Party 
(PKS), Development Union Party (PPP) and a coalition of 12 smaller 
parties.  Muslim-oriented PKS, which has been on a losing streak 
recently following its victories in West Java and North Sumatra (Ref 
B), also fared poorly in the Lampung election. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Syahrial Oesman and Alex Noerdin had waged a hard-fought 
campaign.  A series of allegations in recent weeks intensified the 
rivalry.  Oesman has recently been called as a witness in a 
corruption investigation involving improper re-zoning of mangrove 
swampland to be converted and used for a planned port.  He has thus 
far refused to testify in the case and it is unclear how far he 
himself was involved in the improper re-zoning of the land.  Noerdin 
used this investigation against Oesman while Oesman countered by 
publicizing accusations against Noerdin of an extramarital affair. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) A recent prohibition on the religious group Ahmadiyah's 
activities issued September 1 by Acting Governor Mahyuddin may also 
have been an attempt to shore up support among Oesman's Islamic 
party supporters such as the PKS and PPP (Ref A). 
 
¶11.  (SBU) In a conversation with Consulate Medan on September 5, a 
dispirited Oesman indicated he had not conceded and believed that he 
will come out ahead once all the votes are counted.  Given that much 
of his support is in the more rural and remote parts of South 
Sumatra, there remains a slight possibility that the current trend 
towards Noerdin will reverse. 
 
TAMPERING STILL A CONCERN 
 
¶12. (SBU) South Sumatra elections are also notorious within Sumatra 
for post-election tampering.  Syarial Oesman's election as governor 
in 2003 was marred by allegations of vote tampering as was the 2003 
election of the Mayor of Palembang Eddy Santana, an Oesman partisan. 
 A member of the South Sumatra five-person election commission was 
heard as recently as last Saturday announcing in a hotel lobby near 
media (who reported the comments) that Oesman was destined to win 
and that Noerdin was a womanizer.  As the election commission now 
prepares to release an initial vote tally on September 8, the 
history of tampering in South Sumatran elections looms large over 
the process. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) These two elections bode well for Indonesian democracy in 
that the victors campaigned on issues of importance to the 
electorate, which reportedly followed the candidates closely and 
were enthusiastic about direct elections.  The two elections also 
mark a rebound for Golkar and further demonstrate PDI-P's strong 
grassroots connections.  Development of a strong democratic culture 
will be crucial to successful national Parliamentary elections 
slated for April 2009. 
 
HUME