VZCZCXRO4042
PP RUEHPW
DE RUEHGV #0775/01 2601546
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 161546Z SEP 08
FM USMISSION GENEVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7172
INFO RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 5160
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0341
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 3034
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 5728
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR 0159
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 4319
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2823
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GENEVA 000775 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: AF EAGR EAID IR PGOV PHUM PK PREF
SUBJECT: UNHCR:HC GUTERRES ON AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN, IRAN 
 
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Summary 
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¶1. (SBU) UNHCR High Commissioner Guterres painted a grim 
picture of the situation in Northwestern Pakistan during a 
briefing to key donors.  Describing the situation there as 
the most worrisome in the world at the moment, he called on 
the International Community to support both the current 
government in Islamabad and efforts to provide assistance to 
Pakistanis (as well as Afghan refugees) in refugee-affected 
areas.  On Afghanistan, Guterres said that the security 
situation and the government's low capacity to provide 
services preclude any dramatic increase in returns of 
refugees for the time being.  He hopes the November 19 
Conference on Afghan Refugees will focus on the need for 
providing services to returnees at the local level.  Guterres 
described his discussions in Teheran as very difficult, but 
leaving an opening to come to agreement on the treatment of 
Afghan refugees in Iran.  In an aside to the Charge after the 
briefing, Guterres stated that we need to take a more 
sophisticated approach towards Teheran.  End Summary. 
 
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Pakistan: Grave Concerns about Stability 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The Charge and RMA Counselor attended a September 15 
briefing at the Dutch embassy by High Commissioner Guterres 
on his recent trip to Pakistan and Iran, as well as on the 
November 19 conference on Afghan refugees to be hosted by 
UNHCR and the Afghan government.  Guterres went on at length 
about his concerns regarding the overall political/security 
situation in the Northwest Frontier Province and the 
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), and to a certain 
extent the adjacent Afghan regions.  Militias are operating 
independently and have access to drug money, local 
populations are disaffected with the government, local 
services are overwhelmed and/or dysfunctional, he stated.  He 
called this situation currently the most worrisome in the 
world.  Guterres called on the International Community to 
look at it from a perspective broader than the problems 
associated with Afghanistan, as the potential chaos is 
considerable and would have broad impact in the region. 
Guterres believes the current leadership in Pakistan has good 
intentions, but does not necessarily enjoy the full support 
of the entire bureaucracy, including the military. 
Therefore, while the leadership seems to grasp the 
seriousness of the situation and wants to re-establish 
control of these regions, the government is also fragile and 
it is unclear how effective it can be.  Guterres called for 
concerted international action to support the GOP, as well as 
Pakistanis affected by conflict.  The UN will launch a 5-year 
consolidated appeal for $135 (of which $45m for UNHCR) for 
the refugee-impacted areas of Pakistan.  UNDP will be 
responsible for a larger amount, as the approach will focus 
on development for both Pakistanis and the refugee population. 
 
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Afghan Refugee Conference 
------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Guterres began by stating that the expectations a 
few years ago that most of the Afghan refugees in Pakistan 
and Iran would soon return home are no longer realistic 
because of both the security situation in Afghanistan and the 
government's limited capacity to support returnees.  Of the 
360,000 who returned in 2007, 12 percent had nowhere to 
return to and the government was essentially unable to 
provide support.  Guterres hopes that the November conference 
will expose the need for community development and service in 
areas of return, with a focus on organizing local services 
that can deliver.  Through this focus, he hopes both Kabul 
and donors will come to terms with the groundwork that needs 
to be laid for future refugee returns and that Iran and 
Pakistan will understand that the numbers of Afghan refugees 
in their countries will not be diminishing dramatically for 
the time being, lest they overwhelm Afghanistan's capacity to 
receive them. 
 
GENEVA 00000775  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
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Iran: Need for a More Sophisticated Approach 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Guterres described Iran as difficult and always 
ready to blame the West for every problem.  Nonetheless, he 
believes that the International Community (including UNHCR) 
needs to do more to address the refugee problems there 
through increased engagement with Teheran.  There are huge 
flows of Afghans continuing to come from the west and the 
north of Afghanistan into Iran.  The government in Teheran is 
committed to non-refoulement, Guterres said, but also does 
not want refugees settling in certain areas (No Go Areas), 
where there are some legitimate concerns about security and 
the already poor situation of Iranians living there.  He 
believes that the government wishes to provide basic 
protection to refugees, but will expect increased 
international support in exchange.  He described discussions 
with the GOI during his visit as very difficult, though he 
believed there is room for negotiations.  Guterres said that 
Teheran consistently complained about how small UNHCR's 
program was in Iran compared to Pakistan.  In response, 
Guterres said that a larger program would require concessions 
by Teheran on issues such as freedom of movement and greater 
independence of action.  He reported that UNHCR will continue 
discussions with Iran, as there is a need to engage before 
the situation deteriorates for the refugees and other 
migrants there. 
 
¶5. (SBU) In a pull-aside after the briefing, Guterres 
stressed to the Charge the need to adopt a more sophisticated 
approach toward Teheran.  He admitted that the GOI can be 
difficult and may be involved in some nefarious activities, 
but it is the most sophisticated government in the area with 
a strategy for refugees, for its own country and for what it 
sees as its role in the region.  The Iranians leave room for 
negotiation in most everything they do and we all need to be 
more nuanced in taking advantage of that, he said. 
STORELLA