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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000513 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EI
SUBJECT: IRISH STUDY IDENTIFIES REASONS FOR LISBON TREATY 
DEFEAT 
 
REF: DUBLIN 431 
 
DUBLIN 00000513  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
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Summary 
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¶1.  The Government of Ireland has released the results of 
research it commissioned to establish the reasons behind the 
rejection of the Lisbon Treaty by the Irish electorate in a 
referendum on June 12, 2008.  Topping the list of voters' 
concerns were fears that adopting the Treaty might result in 
loss of influence for Ireland, an increase in the corporate 
income tax (and loss of foreign direct investment), an 
abandonment of Ireland's traditional neutrality, the loss of 
a full-time EU Commissioner, potential changes in the 
abortion law (away from its pro-life stance), the possibility 
of Irishmen being conscripted into an European army, and loss 
of workers' rights.  Moreover, the research showed that at 
least 40 percent of those voting 'No' did so because they 
felt they did not have enough information in the run-up to 
the election.  Foreign Minister Michael Martin's call today 
for the Irish "to work together to address the challenges 
facing Ireland in Europe in the wake of the referendum 
result," acknowledges the tough job facing the Government of 
Ireland.  End summary. 
 
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The Government's View of the EU 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  On September 8, Minister for European Affairs Dick Roche 
told a German diplomatic audience that the results of the 
referendum were a "deep disappointment" to the Irish 
Government and should not be interpreted as suggesting that 
the Irish people have suddenly become euro-skeptic.  He 
pointed out that an April 2008 Eurobarometer survey showed 
that 73 percent of Irish people believed that EU membership 
has been a good thing, while only 6 percent thought it has 
been bad.  He stressed that Ireland did not want to be "at 
odds" with its EU partners and highlighted the "positive and 
constructive EU stance" taken by successive Irish 
governments.  He said that the Government was engaged in 
careful and serious analysis of the referendum's outcome and 
its implications in order to devise a national way forward. 
He cautioned that there would be no easy solutions. 
 
¶3.  Roche summarized the situation facing the Irish, saying 
that the Lisbon Treaty was the product of many years of hard 
work involving compromises and concessions, and that the 24 
Member States who have ratified the Treaty did so because 
they thought it was the best deal that could be achieved for 
their own countries and the Union.  (He predicted that all 26 
Member States would ratify the Treaty by year's end, leaving 
Ireland as the only holdout.)  Roche went on to say that 
there is no great opposition to the Treaty across Europe and 
that there is no appetite in Europe for renegotiation of the 
Treaty.  He said he regretted that Ireland seemed to be 
aligned with people and organizations that "see the EU as 
anathema, who reject the very basis on which the EU is built, 
who deny its wonderful achievements and who desire to replace 
it with something weaker."  He declared that this was not in 
Ireland's interest. 
 
¶4.  Invoking similarities among EU Member States, Roche said 
that important lessons from the referendum were that the EU 
has failed to communicate what the Union does in clear and 
coherent language, and that the people of Europe do not 
understand the basic functioning of the EU.  He proposed that 
the EU devise a user-friendly narrative to describe the EU 
that "speaks to the heart of its citizens as well as to their 
minds and wallets."  He pointed out that the highly detailed, 
technical, and lengthy Treaty document was "unreadable," 
which had left the document open to deliberate 
misrepresentation and misinterpretation by 'No' campaigners. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
The 'No' Arguments that Carried the Day 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  On September 10, Minister for Foreign Affairs Michael 
Martin unveiled the results of research commissioned by the 
Irish Government to establish the reasons behind the 
rejection of the Lisbon Treaty by the Irish electorate in a 
referendum on June 12, 2008.  The research indicated that the 
Irish electorate was worried that adopting the Treaty might 
result in loss of influence for Ireland, an increase in the 
corporate income tax (and subsequent loss of foreign direct 
investment) and an abandonment of Ireland's traditional 
neutrality.  Martin revealed that voters were also concerned 
about losing a full-time EU Commissioner, potential changes 
in the abortion law (away from its pro-life stance), the 
 
DUBLIN 00000513  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
possibility of Irishmen being conscripted into an European 
army, and loss of workers' rights. 
 
¶6.  Martin noted that the survey demonstrated that voters did 
not have enough information in the run-up to the election. 
Lack of adequate information, he said, was the biggest reason 
given by voters for voting 'No' or abstaining.  He pointed 
out that 40 percent of those who voted against the Treaty 
cited lack of information, which caused them to genuinely 
fret about what was actually in the Treaty text.  Martin 
reiterated Roche's statement that 70 percent of Irish people 
feel that EU membership is a good thing. 
 
¶7.  Predictably, Ireland's opposition party, Fine Gael, which 
supported the Government in advocating a 'Yes' vote on the 
treaty, lambasted the Government for not delivering the 
Lisbon Treaty message coherently and for not revealing the 
full story of the defeat.  Fine Gael Foreign Affairs 
Spokesman Billy Timmons criticized the Government for not 
taking into account the impact of the Government's "domestic 
failures," such as the slumping economy, and the difficulties 
caused by the evidence of former Prime Minister (Taoiseach) 
Bertie Ahern at the Mahon Tribunal.  Timmons alleged that 
such concerns were often raised with Fine Gael canvassers as 
reasons why voters voted 'No.' 
 
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Comment 
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¶8.  While the Irish political parties may quibble over the 
results of the research, the fact remains that the Lisbon 
Treaty was soundly defeated on June 12 and Ireland is on the 
cusp of becoming the only EU Member State to reject it.  The 
European Council has put the Irish Government on notice that 
it expects it to devise a way forward -- if not by the 
Council meeting in October, then certainly by the Council 
meeting in December.  Martin's call today for the Irish "to 
work together to address the challenges facing Ireland in 
Europe in the wake of the referendum result," acknowledges 
that the Irish Government understands it has a tough job 
ahead. 
 
FOLEY