VZCZCXRO3313
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0486/01 2461507
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 021507Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2875
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000486 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: RPG OPPOSITION REMAINS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ELECTIONS 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  The RPG opposition political party 
remains optimistic about legislative elections despite 
continued delays and the presidency's seemingly successful 
efforts to gradually restore controversial personalities to 
positions of power.  Planning to fully participate in the 
elections, the party is already out in the provinces training 
its members to play active roles when the elections finally 
do take place.  Comments on what is happening behind the 
scenes helps explain exactly why it is taking so long for 
Guinea to get its elections off the ground.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On August 27 A/DCM met with Dr. Mohammed Diane, the 
behind the scenes leader of the opposition Rally for the 
Guinean People (RPG) political party, which is considered to 
draw the majority of its support from the Malinke ethnic base 
in Upper Guinea.  The RPG is generally regarded as the most 
radical of Guinea's four main opposition parties.  The 
party's leader, Alpha Conde, has been criticized for his long 
absences from the country, although he has won the highest 
number of votes next to President Conte in earlier 
presidential elections. 
 
--------------------- 
WHERE'S THE MINISTER? 
--------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Holding transparent, credible legislative elections 
is at the top of Dr. Diane's priority list, although he 
acknowledges that preparations are not moving along at a 
sufficient pace if they are to be held by the end of the 
year.  He pointed out that a brand new Minister of 
Territorial Administration and Political Affairs was 
appointed in May, but that the new minister has yet to 
schedule a meeting with the political parties, despite the 
fact that he is supposed to be holding elections in just a 
few months. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Dr. Diane noted that he and other leaders of 
political parties had spoken briefly with the new minister at 
an official event a few days earlier.  According to Dr. 
Diane, the minister invited the party leaders into a private 
room to speak with them for thirty minutes.  In response to a 
question about why he had not yet met with them, the minister 
reportedly said "I am not familiar with the file so I have 
not been able to schedule a meeting." 
 
------------------------ 
THE DEVIL IN THE DETAILS 
------------------------ 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Dr. Diane also commented on a recent meeting 
between the political parties and the National Independent 
Electoral Commission (CENI) in which the parties discussed 
government funding for political parties as provided by a law 
passed in May 2007.  Dr. Diane said that the small political 
parties (of which there are now more than 50, many 
representing only a handful of people) dominated the 
discussion, claiming that all parties are entitled to an 
equal share of government funding for campaign activities. 
Visibly frustrated, Dr. Diane said that the law clearly 
delineates how the funding should be split based on certain 
criteria such as electoral participation.  He added that the 
discussion exemplifies why the electoral process takes so 
long in Guinea.  "The law clearly states the solution and yet 
we took hours to discuss the issue, the CENI decided to 
postpone a decision, and the government was not even 
represented," he said. 
 
--------------------------- 
THIS TIME WILL BE DIFFERENT 
--------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) According to Dr. Diane, it is impossible to have 
elections that are "100% clean," but the fraud of the past 
will not be permitted in the current socio-political climate. 
 He said that the violence in 2007 has caused a fundamental 
mentality shift that has emboldened the population.  A/DCM 
questioned this claim, pointing out that despite frequent 
talk of a "mentality shift," the population has offered 
minimal resistance to the presidency's recent series of 
controversial decisions.  Dr. Diane agreed, but said that if 
there is election fraud, people will react. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Continuing on this theme, Dr. Diane mentioned a 
recent instance where the prefect of Kankan reported to MATAP 
that his prefecture contained 32 administrative districts for 
voting purposes.  Dr. Diane said that in fact, the prefecture 
contains 41, and he and his party immediately spoke up to 
correct the discrepancy.  He considered this 
misrepresentation a possibly deliberate attempt on the part 
 
CONAKRY 00000486  002 OF 002 
 
 
of the government to introduce electoral fraud, an attempt 
that failed due to the RPG's vigilance. 
 
------------------- 
PREPARING THE FIELD 
------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) A/DCM noted hearing grumblings from individual 
party members about possibly boycotting the elections, and 
asked whether the RPG is still preparing its campaign.  Dr. 
Diane adamantly stated that the RPG "is absolutely going to 
participate in these elections because they are absolutely 
necessary."  He added that elections represent the only 
potentially democratic solution to Guinea's problems. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Dr. Diane said that the RPG has already started its 
electoral campaign process by conducting trainings for its 
members in the interior, which it has recently completed in 
Labe, Kankan, and N'Zerekore.  He clarified that the RPG is 
training its members on campaigning techniques as well as 
roles and responsibilities as observers on election day. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) A/DCM asked about the RPG's strength in terms of 
party leadership, pointing out that Alpha Conde has not 
visited Guinea for more than a year.  Dr. Diane said that 
Conde is currently in the U.S. for the democratic national 
convention, which he used as an opportunity to hold a meeting 
with the Guinean Diaspora in New York City last week.  A/DCM 
asked how Alpha Conde can effectively represent the party, 
let alone the country, when he spends so little time in 
country.  Dr. Diane said that Conde enjoys widespread popular 
support.  He added that Conde should be returning to Guinea 
in October or November and that the warm welcome he is sure 
to receive will clearly illustrate how popular he is. 
 
------------------------- 
ELECTIONS FOR CREDIBILITY 
------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Turning to recent political developments, A/DCM 
asked Dr. Diane for his impressions of the new government as 
well as the significance of recent changes.  Dr. Diane said 
that the system is broken because "as long as Conte is there, 
it doesn't matter who the prime minister is."  He added that 
this leadership crisis is why elections are so important. 
"The National Assembly is illegitimate - credible elections 
will give us at least one credible institution, and then we 
can move forward," he said. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Although there is some concern about the timing, 
the RPG remains optimistic about the upcoming legislative 
elections.  However, the rash of new political appointments 
coming out of the presidency over the last few months could 
potentially undermine the electoral process.  The fact that 
the new MATAP minister has yet to meet with the political 
parties when elections should be his number one priority 
suggests a lack of political will.  On the issue of timing, 
the lengthy meeting between the political parties and the 
CENI illustrates exactly why preparations are behind 
schedule.  The participants spent hours discussing an issue 
that should be relatively clear, yet the matter remains 
unresolved.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
BROKENSHIRE