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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 001290 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV BR
SUBJECT: Brazil Municipal Elections: Belo Horizonte Race Will Test 
Presidential Waters 
 
REF: (A) Sao Paulo 285 (B) Sao Paulo 225 
(C) Sao Paulo 142(D) Sao Paulo 94 (D) Brasilia 674 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Although all Brazilian cities elect mayors and 
city councils on October 5, the municipal elections in Belo 
Horizonte and Sao Paulo have the most potential to affect the 
national political situation.  In Belo Horizonte, Brazil's sixth 
largest city located in the state of Minas Gerais, a controversial 
informal alliance between President Lula's PT party and the Social 
Democrat (PSDB) party (center-left party in opposition) has formed 
to back Marcio Lacerda, a Socialist (PSB, leftist party in the 
governing coalition).  This PT-PSDB alliance is significant because 
these parties are traditional national-level political rivals.  If, 
as projected, Lacerda wins easily--he might even do so without a 
second round run-off--the success of the PT-PSDB partnership in Belo 
Horizonte will bolster the prospects of its architect, Minas Gerais 
Governor Aecio Neves (PSDB) as a presidential candidate for 2010. 
Neves, who is clearly positioning himself as a candidate for 2010, 
has been carefully working with President Lula and other PT leaders 
in an effort to build his reputation as a politician who can work 
with rivals to get things done.  End summary. 
 
THE RACE IN BELO HORIZONTE 
 
¶2. (SBU) In a municipal election that is among two in Brazil (the 
other being Sao Paulo - see reftels) to have potential national 
implications, an alliance of the PT, PSB and informally, the PSDB, 
as well as other smaller parties, supports Marcio Lacerda, who leads 
in recent polls with 45%, twenty-five percentage points ahead of his 
nearest rival. Lacerda, a wealthy businessman, is the candidate of 
popular Belo Horizonte Mayor Fernando Pimentel, and the even more 
popular Minas Gerais Governor, Aecio Neves. Lacerda recently served 
as Neves's State Secretary for Economic Development. The locally 
popular, cooperative and productive relationship formed between 
Pimentel and Neves, despite their parties' national level rivalry, 
should easily carry Lacerda to victory, possibly without a run-off. 
Although Lacerda was running third in the polls with only 6% as 
recently as mid-August, Marcus Coimbra of the polling firm Vox 
Populii, predicted correctly to APPoff that as soon as the 
television campaigning started in late August and the public 
understood that Lacerda was the candidate of Pimentel and Neves, he 
would shoot up in the polls, as the public wants to continue their 
legacy. Although the national PT directorate forbade a formal 
alliance between the PT and the PSDB, despite public statements made 
in support of it by President Lula and his chief of staff, Dilma 
Rousseff, the informality of the alliance has not hurt Lacerda as 
the public clearly understands that Neves supports his candidacy. 
 
THE ORIGINS OF THE ALLIANCE AND NATIONAL INVOLVEMENT IN THE BELO 
HORIZONTE RACE 
 
¶3. (SBU) According to State Deputy and PSDB party leader in Minas 
Gerais, Lafayette de Andrade, the unusually cooperative relationship 
between the PT and the PSDB in Belo Horizonte is the result of both 
President Lula and Governor Neves having an interest in good 
relations that would facilitate implementation of their agendas. 
When elected in 2002, President Lula's governing coalition in the 
Brazilian Congress was fragile and Neves's standing as the former 
Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, and his good relations with many 
in Congress, made him a potentially useful resource to Lula, 
according to Andrade.  As the newly elected governor of Minas Gerais 
in 2002, Neves needed to form a good relationship with the federal 
government in order to obtain the resources needed to carry out his 
ambitious agenda. The good relationship that eventually developed 
naturally included PT Mayor Pimentel, especially given his close 
relationship with Dilma Rousseff, formed when they worked together 
to oppose the military dictatarship.  As a result, Neves has been 
able to obtain federal support for his projects, which he has 
implemented efficiently by cutting bureaucracy and focusing on a 
results-oriented style of management. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Political columnist Marcio Fagundes of Hoje Em Dia, Belo 
Horizonte's second-most read daily, told APPoff that when it came 
time to unite behind a candidate, Pimentel went to Brasilia to 
personally get the blessing of President Lula and Rousseff for the 
alliance. Luiz Dulci, Secretary General of the Presidency and a 
personal friend of Fagundes who is also from Minas Gerais, told 
Fagundes that Pimentel may have made a big mistake by not consulting 
two other key national PT figures also from Minas Gerais - Dulci 
himself and Minister of Social Development and the Fight Against 
Hunger, Patrus Ananias de Sousa, who runs President Lula's popular 
Bolsa Familia program.  According to Fagundes, Dulci and Ananias 
 
BRASILIA 00001290  002 OF 002 
 
 
were furious with Pimentel for not consulting with them. Despite 
Lula's and Rousseff's public support, the PT national party 
leadership eventually forbade the alliance with the PSDB, and the PT 
in Minas Gerais has split into a pro-Pimentel camp that is 
supporting Lacerda, and a pro-Ananias camp that is supporting 
current third-place candidate Maria do Socorro "Jo" Moraes, a 
federal deputy from the PCdoB (communist/leftist party in the 
governing coalition). Fagundes and others in Belo Horizonte believe 
that this situation could hurt Pimentel's prospects for being 
elected governor of Minas Gerais in 2010, despite the support he 
will undoubtedly receive from outgoing governor Neves. Ananias, as 
well as Minister of Communications Helio Costa, also from Minas 
Gerais, is also rumored to be interested in the governorship of 
Minas Gerais.  Although Lacerda's victory appears to be certain at 
this point, if he were to stumble as mayor, Ananias or Costa could 
use that against Pimentel, as well as the fact that for the first 
time in 16 years, a non-PT mayor was elected in Belo Horizonte. 
 
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR A NEVES PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDACY IN 2010? 
 
¶5. (SBU) In describing how the Belo Horizonte Mayor race may affect 
the 2010 Presidential race, sociologist Ruda Ricci recently quipped 
in a Veja (popular weekly news magazine) article on the race that 
"In Minas Gerais, we are already in 2010." According to Andrade, 
Lacerda's almost certain victory could bolster a Neves candidacy by 
showing him to be a candidate who can attract cross-over PT and 
other voters and one who unites diverse parties in order to get 
things done. Coimbra has dubbed Neves "a uniter, not a divider," and 
has suggested that this could make him an attractive candidate 
versus the more combative style of politics practiced by PSDB 
leadership in Sao Paulo. State deputy and leader of the PSB in Minas 
Gerais Wander Borges called Neves's style "a new form of politics in 
Brazil...that allows us to sit at the same table and talk and to be 
evaluated on the goods and services delivered."  According to 
Borges, this cooperative and results-oriented leadership style is 
spreading to other cities in Minas Gerais.  Borges believes that 
Brazilian society will eventually demand more consensus-based 
leadership on the national level and that this will help a Neves 
candidacy, particularly after a Lacerda victory. 
 
¶6. (SBU) As Sao Paulo Governor Jose Serra is currently the leading 
prospect for the PSDB in 2010, there is speculation that Neves will 
switch parties to run in 2010.  It is also possible that, if Lacerda 
wins, the PT/PSDB alliance could serve as a model for a similar 
alliance behind Neves in 2010.  Most commentators find the latter 
scenario highly unlikely, but the former scenario a strong 
possibility. Fagundas believes Neves may run as a PSB candidate with 
Ciro Gomes. Highly respected Globo columnist Miriam Leitao told 
APPoff that switching to the PMDB would be a natural for Neves, as 
his grandfather, Tancredo Neves, who was elected president in 1985 
but died before taking office, was one of the PMDB's founders. 
 
¶7. (SBU) COMMENT. Neves is definitely positioning himself to run for 
president in 2010, either as the PSDB candidate or possibly as the 
candidate of another party if he fails to win the PSDB nomination. 
Through his cooperative relationship with PT Mayor Pimentel and by 
backing Lacerda in an informal alliance with the PT, he is trying to 
portray himself as a new kind of candidate for Brazil who can work 
with rivals to get things done for the people.  By electing Lacerda, 
voters in Belo Horizonte will signal their support for this style of 
politics.  If this trend toward a less partisan, results-oriented 
style of politics catches on in other parts of Brazil, it would 
further bolster a Neves candidacy for president in 2010.  END 
COMMENT 
 
 
 
 
KUBISKE