VZCZCXRO8748
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0929/01 2531554
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 091554Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0399
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNS/NSC WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000929 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O.12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR
SUBJECT: SERBIAN PARLIAMENT APPROVES STABILIZATION AGREEMENT WITH EU 
AND ENERGY DEAL WITH RUSSIA 
 
REF:  A) BELGRADE 426, B) BELGRADE 773 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) On September 9, Serbia's Parliament approved both the 
Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU and its energy 
deal with Russia, ending months of gridlock over the two agreements. 
 Getting the SAA agreement approved was a priority of the new 
pro-European government led by the Democratic Party (DS).  Approving 
the energy deal favorable to Russia simultaneously with the SAA 
permitted the DS to protect its right flank from opposition 
criticism.  Now that Serbia has ratified the SAA, the government 
hopes that the EU will soon decide to implement the interim trade 
agreement, allowing Serbia to move one step closer toward its goal 
of European integration.  End Summary. 
 
Parliament Passes Agreements 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Serbia's parliament on September 9 approved the Law on 
Ratification of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA), 
as well as the Law on Ratification of the Interim Trade Agreement 
with the EU.  A total of 140 MPs voted in favor of the SAA and the 
interim agreement (out of 168 present).  Twenty-eight deputies from 
the Democratic Party of Serbia and New Serbia (DSS-NS) voted 
against.  Rather than highlighting the deepening cracks in their 
party (septel), deputies from the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) 
abstained.  The energy agreement with Russia, including the sale of 
51% of Serbia's national oil company NIS to Russia's Gazprom, passed 
with 214 votes in favor, 22 opposed, and one abstention.  The next 
step in implementing the energy agreement will be negotiations with 
Russia on the details of the NIS purchase (septel). 
 
Kosovo Resolution Withdrawn 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Unable to win political consensus from all parties in the 
parliament, on September 8 the government withdrew its draft 
resolution on the continuity of the state policy on Kosovo. Minister 
for Kosovo Goran Bogdanovic told local media on September 9 that the 
withdrawal of the government proposed resolution did not signify a 
change in the government's Kosovo policy, stating that Serbia will 
never recognize Kosovo's independence.  Instead of the resolution, 
an SRS - sponsored amendment which confirms Serbia's territorial 
integrity was added to the law ratifying the SAA.  "Serbia... 
understands the provisions of the SAA as confirmation that the SAA 
does not hamper the territorial integrity of Serbia, particularly 
the status of Kosovo-Metojiha (as part of Serbia), which is 
guaranteed in UNSC Resolution 1244," stated a government press 
release after the vote. 
 
Next Steps with the EU 
---------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Now that it has ratified the SAA and the Interim Trade 
Agreement, Serbia is hoping that the EU will decide to implement the 
latter when EU foreign ministers meet on September 15.  When the two 
EU agreements were signed in April 2008 (Ref A) in an effort to 
boost Serbia's pro-Western parties on the eve of parliamentary 
elections, the EU conditioned the implementation of the agreements 
upon Serbia's full cooperation with the Hague Tribunal (ICTY). 
Since the arrest of ICTY indictee Radovan Karadzic in late July (Ref 
B), Serbia's leaders have argued that implementing the interim trade 
agreement would show the EU's good faith toward Serbia and 
recognition of its ICTY cooperation efforts.  ICTY prosecutor Serge 
Brammertz is expected in Belgrade on September 10, and Serbia is 
hoping that he will issue a positive assessment of Serbia's 
cooperation with the Tribunal prior to the EU's September 15 
meeting.  "I hope that we will receive a positive evaluation from 
Prosecutor Brammertz on our cooperation with the Hague Tribunal, 
which is very important for implementation of  the trade agreement," 
President Boris Tadic said on September 3 while in Brussels lobbying 
on Serbia's behalf. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Despite protracted obstruction from opposition parties in 
parliament, Serbia's new government succeeded in passing the SAA by 
linking it to the controversial Russian energy deal as a shield 
against opposition criticism.  As a result, the government has 
successfully delivered on one of its major campaign promises from 
the spring.  Less certain, however, is whether the EU will consider 
Serbia's efforts to cooperate with The Hague sufficient to implement 
the interim trade agreement.  Without a positive assessment from 
Brammertz or the quick arrest of ICTY indictee Ratko Mladic, Serbia 
has little ability to influence the EU decision.    End Comment. 
 
BELGRADE 00000929  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
MUNTER