VZCZCXRO8735
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0928/01 2531546
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 091546Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0397
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNS/NSC WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000928 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O.12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: RADICAL LEADER RESIGNS 
 
REF:  BELGRADE 913 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Acting head of the Serbian Radical Party Tomislav Nikolic 
resigned from his party leadership positions on September 5 and 
created a new parliamentary caucus of 19 members on September 8. 
Although it was widely known that Nikolic was frequently in conflict 
with party president and ICTY indictee Vojislav Seselj, most 
observers did not expect the split, which was triggered by 
disagreement over the Stabilization and Association Agreement with 
the European Union, to happen so soon.  If Nikolic succeeds in 
creating a new opposition grouping in Parliament, Seselj's Radical 
Party could become even more of an anachronism.  End Summary. 
 
Nikolic Resigns Over SAA 
------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (U) Tomislav Nikolic, acting head of the Serbian Radical Party 
(SRS), resigned his positions as party leader and head of the 
parliamentary caucus during a high-level party meeting held the 
night of September 5.  SRS leader Vojislav Seselj reportedly 
participated by phone from The Hague where he is standing trial on 
war crimes charges.  Tensions between Seselj and Nikolic, who came 
close to defeating Boris Tadic in February's presidential election, 
have been simmering for years; the proximate cause of the break was 
Nikolic's announcement last week that the SRS would vote in favor of 
the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU.  (The 
SAA has the necessary votes to pass without SRS support.) 
 
Nikolic Keeps Seat, Forms New Caucus 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶3.  (U) In his first public comments after resigning, Nikolic said 
he might form a new party.  In a September 8 statement to reporters 
in the Parliament building, Nikolic said "currently, I am a member 
of SRS, but the next few days will determine my political fate.  I 
continue to see myself in politics."  He emphasized that his 
political activity was based on certain principles, and "if I cannot 
realize these principles in my party, I will have to realize them in 
a new one."  Nikolic also said that his resignation had "lowered the 
curtain on the SRS as such, and it could rise for either one or two 
new parties ... the old SRS no longer exists." 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Later on September 8, Speaker of Parliament Slavica 
Djukic-Dejanovic (SPS) announced that Nikolic had created a new 
caucus called "Forward Serbia." (In a meeting earlier that day 
Djukic-Dejanovic had told us to "wait and see" what Nikolic would 
do, noting that some SRS members might choose to take a constructive 
approach to Parliament's work.)  B-92 reported that as of September 
8, 11 SRS members had already joined the caucus:  Bozidar Delic, 
Gojko Radic, Mileta Poskurica, Dobrislav Prelic-Doki, Oto Kis 
Marton, Predrag Mijatovic, Jorgovanka Tabakovic, Mico Rogovic, 
Vuceta Toskovis, Zoran Babic, and Nikolic.  As of September 9, the 
number had grown to 19.  There is speculation that other SRS 
members, such as Secretary General Aleksandar Vucic or MP Zoran 
Krasic could eventually follow Nikolic, although both are reportedly 
hesitant to lose the income they receive from serving on Seselj's 
legal defense team. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Dragan Todorovic, president of the SRS Executive Board, 
immediately announced that everyone who joined Nikolic's caucus 
would be expelled from the SRS and Parliament.  Nikolic told the 
press on September 8 that he had "lost the MPs' blank resignation 
letters," implying that the new SRS leadership would be unable to 
expel members.  He also asserted that the expulsion of an MP was 
decided by the Parliament's Administrative Committee, which he 
chairs, rather than a party.  (It appears that the Constitution and 
the Law on Elections are somewhat contradictory on the question of 
when an MP's mandate ends; a 2003 Constitutional Court decision said 
that MPs rather than parties "own" their mandate.) 
 
Split Expected, Timing a Surprise 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Knowledgeable observers expected an eventual 
Nikolic-Seselj split but were nonetheless surprised by the timing, 
having expected no movement until after Seselj's trial.  VIP editor 
Braca Grubacic, who has broad contacts within the SRS, told us on 
September 6 that Nikolic had been forced to act earlier than planned 
when Seselj directed his hard-line followers in Parliament to attack 
Nikolic on September 2 for meeting with Tadic. (SRS MPs Natasa 
Jovanovic, Vjerica Radeta and Gordana Pop Lazic used vulgar language 
to curse President Tadic and "anyone from the party who meets with 
him.")  Grubabic claimed that Nikolic had decided to support the SAA 
after a late August meeting with President Tadic rumored to have 
been arranged by Delta owner Miroslav Miskovic. 
 
 
BELGRADE 00000928  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Belgrade Mayor Dragan Djilas told us on September 5, 
before Nikolic's resignation, that the SRS was taking a far more 
constructive, pro-European approach than former PM Kostunica's 
Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS, reftel).  Djilas said that he had 
good, "normal" relations with Nikolic, and thought that former 
Radical and Novi Sad Mayor Maya Gojkovic might rejoin the SRS if it 
continued on a more moderate course.  (Others such as Customs Agency 
head Predrag Petronijevic have warned us, however, that Nikolic and 
his loyalists are just as unredeemable as Seselj's hardliners.) 
 
¶8.  (SBU) A contact in the international community who met with 
Nikolic on September 1 reported that he expressed frustration with 
the SRS and spoke of plans to form a new party once Seselj returned 
from The Hague.  Our contact concluded that the dispute with Seselj 
over the SAA was the last straw for Nikolic; his resignation was 
proof that Seselj was destroying his own party from the inside. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) SRS's opposition "partner," the DSS, is keeping its 
distance from the dispute.  DSS Vice President Alexandar Popovic 
told us on September 9 that DSS had limited knowledge of SRS inner 
machinations.  "We have joint issues as an opposition, but we 
disagree on much more," he said.  When asked if a Nikolic splinter 
group would be more appealing to the DSS as an opposition partner, 
Popovic sniped, "ask your SRS experts in Washington, they know more 
about the Radicals than we do."  (Comment:  Popovic was referring to 
the widely spread rumor during the May 11 elections that the United 
States was funding the Radicals in order to encourage European 
recognitions of Kosovo.  The logic to this was that if the Radicals 
came to power, Kosovo would gain more sympathy for its independence. 
 End Comment.) 
 
SRS: Leaner and Meaner? 
----------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Nikolic's departure from his leadership positions leaves 
hardliners loyal to Seselj firmly in control of the Radical Party. 
Dragan Todorovic, president of the SRS Executive Board, was elected 
on September 8 to replace Nikolic as head of the SRS parliamentary 
caucus.  Gordana Pop Lazic will be his deputy whip.  The SRS does 
not want to give Nikolic the opportunity to challenge Seselj at a 
party congress; SRS vice president Milorad Mircic announced that the 
position of deputy president would remain vacant until the party's 
next regularly-scheduled congress in 2010.  (The party's statute 
permits the calling of extraordinary congresses at the request of 
the party president, the Executive Committee, or one-fifth of local 
committees; Nikolic might be able to use the third option if he 
chose to challenge Seselj directly.) 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Grubacic predicted that the SRS's popularity would fall 
in the wake of Nikolic's resignation.  The hardliners' virulently 
nationalist, anti-European approach is out of step with the vast 
majority of the Serbian public; a recent poll showed that 61% of 
Serbs favor joining the EU.  (Although some observers claim that 
Seselj's fiery statements rather than Nikolic's relatively moderate 
approach are responsible, it is clear that support for the SRS has 
increased since Nikolic became the acting head in 2003; in 2008 he 
came within 120,000 votes of defeating Tadic for the presidency, and 
the SRS secured 77 seats in Parliament.)  Grubacic said he expected 
that in one to two months Nikolic would form a new political 
grouping with former SRS leader Maja Gojkovic (who left the party in 
November 2007) and/or Velimir Ilic of New Serbia, followed by a 
wholesale reshuffling of the political right in six months to a 
year. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Based on his September 8 move to create a new 
parliamentary caucus, Nikolic has clearly decided to fight to remain 
in politics rather than quietly stepping aside.  If he succeeds in 
creating a more moderate and constructive opposition group, there 
could be an opening for engagement.  Conversely, failure would leave 
the SRS with its full strength in Parliament and no moderating 
influence in its top leadership, creating the risk of further 
polarization and obstruction of Serbia's European aspirations.  End 
Comment. 
 
MUNTER