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PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHKUK RUEHLZ RUEHROV
DE RUEHLB #1413/01 2701459
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 261459Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3178
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 2983
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 3196
RHMFISS/USCENTCOM SPECIAL HANDLING MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 BEIRUT 001413 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, NEA/PI 
ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S HOOK AND PDAS WARLICK 
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY 
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER 
NSC FOR ABRAMS/YERGER/MCDERMOTT/RAMCHAND 
OSD FOR EDELMAN/LONG/STRAUB/DALTON 
AID/ME FOR LAUDATO/BEVER/SCOTT 
DRL FOR DAS BARKS-RUGGLES/BARGHOUT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINS LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: ELECTION LAW DRAFT GOES TO PARLIAMENT 
WITH SOME, NOT ALL, REFORMS INTACT 
 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) IFES officials briefed PolOff on last minute 
changes to the draft electoral law submitted by the 
Parliament's Administration and Justice Committee to 
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on September 24.  The draft 
law states that elections should take place in one day but 
notes that elections could occur on two days for "security 
reasons."  In addition, the draft law allows for certain 
civil society groups to participate in monitoring the 
elections, but does not mention allowing international 
observers.  IFES officials thought an EU mission would 
probably be allowed in, while any U.S. mission would not. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The Committee did not offer a recommendation on the 
issue of reducing the voter age from 21 to 18 and allowing 
municipal mayors to run for parliament without having to wait 
for a two year period before running to become an MP, instead 
wanting parliament to make its own decision on these items. 
Out-of-country voting will have to wait until the 2013 
parliamentary elections, according to the Committee.  In 
addition, the following recommendations made it into the 
draft law:  creation of an supervisory body to monitor 
candidates' campaigns; pre-printed ballots; campaign finance 
and media regulations; and use of ID cards or passports for 
voting.  The parliament will begin considering the draft law 
on September 27.  End Summary. 
 
SUPERVISORY COMMISSION ON 
ELECTION CAMPAIGNING 
------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) In a September 25 meeting, International Foundation 
for Electoral Systems (IFES) Researcher Chantal Sarkis and 
Policy Analyst Karma Ekmekji briefed PolOff on last minute 
changes to the draft electoral law which was submitted to 
Parliament on September 24.  Concerning the establishment of 
an Independent Election Commission (IEC), Sarkis said the 
draft law calls for the creation of a Supervisory Commission 
on Election Campaigning (SCEC).  The SCEC would focus on 
regulating candidates' campaigns, as opposed to facilitating 
the entire election which would have been the role of an IEC. 
 The overall coordination responsibility will remain with the 
Ministry of Interior. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Sarkis noted that Minister of Interior Ziyad Baroud 
asked that the Committee add a requirement that the 
Supervisor Commission regulate the dissemination of electoral 
polling information.  According to Sarkis, Baroud wants the 
SCEC to establish guidelines for how polls are conducted and 
how they are reported in the media.  Baroud also wants a 
deadline to be set beyond which polling information could not 
be publicized.  Baroud also asked that a clause requiring the 
SCEC to provide voter education, be removed from the text, 
instead placing the responsibility in the hands of the 
Ministry of Interior. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The Independent Electoral Commission was supposed 
to be headed by the Minister of Interior.  Baroud asked that 
a retired appellate judge head the Supervisory Commission, 
Sarkis added.  The rest of the commission would be composed 
of two additional retired judges, three former heads of 
Beirut and Tripoli Bar Associations, two media experts and 
three "senior experts in election-related matters."  The 
Minister will be allowed to attend meetings but will not 
vote.  Decisions will be made by an absolute majority and the 
cabinet is required to appoint commission members within 
thirty days of the law's passage. 
 
ONE DAY ELECTIONS, 
NOT LIKELY 
------------------- 
¶6.  (SBU) According to Sarkis, the draft law would require 
that elections be held on one day countrywide (past elections 
have been held on four consecutive weekends).  However, the 
draft law also includes a caveat that the cabinet can decide 
to hold elections over two days for "security reasons." 
Sarkis noted that "security reasons," could range from an 
large scale outbreak of violence to a lack of resources on 
the parts of the Internal Security Forces (ISF) or the 
Lebanese Armed forces (LAF) to provide security for the over 
five thousand polling stations.  Sarkis said one-day 
elections would be key for fair elections to occur and urged 
the USG to persuade GOL security agencies to come up with a 
plan to provide security.  (Comment.  The head of the ISF has 
told us that he does not have sufficient personnel for 
one-day elections for all of the ISF's responsibilities, 
which include guarding ballot boxes.  By contrast, the 
Defense Minister has told us it can be done, with the LAF 
assisting the ISF with security duties.  End comment.) 
 
RIGHTS OF OBSERVERS 
------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Only civil society groups that have been active in 
election observation for at least three years can apply for 
accreditation to observe the 2009 elections.  However, there 
is ambiguity about the participation of international 
observers.  Sarkis noted that the cabinet will have to 
approve international monitoring missions, as their presence 
is considered a matter of national sovereignty.  The EU has 
already notified Baroud that it wants to send a monitoring 
mission to Lebanon, and the cabinet likely will approve that. 
 The GOL is in need of EU funding to help facilitate the 
elections and the EU sent a mission to Lebanon in 2005, 
according to Sarkis.  She said it would be unlikely for the 
cabinet to approve any U.S. observation missions, noting that 
the March 8/Aoun opposition would try to block such a 
request. 
 
MAYORS RUNNING FOR 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS? 
------------------------ 
 
¶8.  (SBU) The controversial issue of whether municipal mayors 
can run for parliament was not addressed in the draft law. 
The current law states that municipal officials and mayors 
must have been out of those positions for a minimum of two 
years before running for parliament, Ekmekji said.  A waiting 
period is also placed on other public officials, but the wait 
time is less than six months. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Sarkis said the Committee wants parliamet to 
decide whether or not to include this provision.  Sarkis 
noted that Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun has said 
he would boycott the national dialogue sessions if this rule 
was amended.  Aoun opposes this reform because popular March 
14 mayors would pose a challenge to some of his MPs currently 
representing key districts in parliament, Sarkis said.  In 
addition, at least one March 14 leader, Samir Geagea 
(Lebanese Forces) is thought to oppose this measure because 
one of his MPs would be challenged, and likely defeated, by a 
popular current mayor. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Baroud publicly criticized the existing restriction 
in the press on September 25, saying that such a clause was 
discriminatory, and if maintained, should apply to cabinet 
ministers as well. 
 
PRE-PRINTED BALLOTS 
------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) In a significant change from current practice, the 
law calls for pre-printed ballots.  Ballots will be designed 
and printed by the Ministry of Interior and will show the 
names and photographs of candidates running in each district. 
 Ballot papers will allow candidates to be included in a 
"list."  As lists can be organized as late as thirty days 
before an election, the Ministry of Interior will have a 30 
day time-frame for the printing of ballots.  Ballot papers 
will be placed into transparent ballot boxes, and voters' 
fingers will be marked with indelible ink and voting to 
prevent fraud. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Candidates would also be required to nominate 
themselves sixty days before an election, and can withdraw 
their names 45 days before election day.  Candidates can also 
choose to be included in a party list no later than 30 days 
before election.  Sarkis said this would be good requirement 
because it would ban politicians from forming last minute 
alliances. 
 
¶13. (SBU) Sarkis noted that most of the political parties 
have already asked the Ministry of Interior for copies of the 
ballots ahead of time to distribute to their constituents in 
order to "train" them on completing the new ballot.  The 
Ministry has refused and if this provision of the law is 
approved, Lebanese voters will not see their ballots until 
they enter the voting booth to cast their vote, according to 
Sarkis.  (Note:  In past elections parties distributed to 
voters ballots with their lists as they entered the polling 
stations.  The voter would take the completed list from the 
person outside the polling station identified with a certain 
party he or she favored, and would deposit the list in the 
voting box.  End Note.) 
 
OUT-OF-COUNTRY VOTING, 
NOT THIS ELECTION 
--------------------- 
 
¶14. (SBU) The draft law recommends that out-of-country voting 
take place in 2013, rather than 2009, and dodged the issue of 
reducing the voter age from 21 to 18, instead stating that 
voters must meet the voting age as it is in the Constitution. 
 (Note:  Unless there is a change to the Constitution, the 
voting age will stay at 21.  End Note.)  Therefore, the 
voting age will remain 21 for the 2009 elections, unless the 
parliament chooses to amend the Constitution to allow voting 
at 18. 
 
¶15. (SBU) Sarkis said in some swing key districts where the 
confessional balance is mixed between Shia and Christian 
voters, reducing the voter age would benefit the March 8/Aoun 
alliance, because younger Shia voters would supposedly back 
Aoun.  However, in predominantly Christian districts, 
reducing the voter age may benefit March 14, because, 
according to Sarkis, the majority of younger Christian voters 
tend to support Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces (LF) over 
Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM).  Sarkis noted that in 
the university elections (an important political indicator in 
Lebanon), LF candidates beat out their FPM rivals by 
significant margins. 
 
CAMPAIGN FINANCE 
AND MEDIA REGULATIONS 
--------------------- 
 
¶16. (SBU) Sarkis added that candidates will be required to 
open a "campaign bank account."  In addition, there will be 
restrictions on funding sources, restrictions on items of 
expenditure, and a requirement to report their accounts to 
the Supervisor Committee.  Candidates will have the right to 
spend around $100,000, plus $2 per voter in their district. 
Media outlets will be required to provide equitable access to 
candidates and there will be restrictions on "media 
endorsements" of candidates and a prohibition of hate speech. 
The SCEC will monitor compliance with the regulations and 
has the power to refer a case to the Court, which could issue 
a fine, suspend broadcasting or even close an outlet. 
 
MINISTERIAL BICKERING 
AT CABINET MEETING 
--------------------- 
 
¶17. (SBU)  Minister of State Wael Abu Faour told us that 
during the September 25 cabinet session a heated debate took 
place, as Minister Ibrahim Shameseddin expressed his 
opposition to the electoral law that will be discussed in 
parliament on September 27.  Shameseddin argued that the GOL 
was not involved in the preparation of the draft law and, 
thus, cannot defend its position in parliament.  According to 
Abu Faour, SSNP minister Ali Qanso expressed a similar 
position. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶18. (SBU) Parliament is expected to take up the issue of the 
draft electoral law on September 27.  A number of contacts 
tell us that a vote on the law will most likely occur on 
Monday, September 29, as Speaker Berri has indicated that he 
wants the new law voted on and passed before the Eid.  We do 
not expect some of the more controversial issues to make it 
into the law that is passed, such as out-of-country voting, 
lowering the voter age, and decreasing the wait period for 
municipal mayors.  In addition, the mandate for one-day 
voting seems unlikely to pass due to a lack of resources 
within the Ministry of Interior and its inability to provide 
security.  It is encouraging that some issues, such as the 
creation of the SCEC, allowing voters to show their ID cards 
and passports to vote, and pre-printed ballot papers have a 
good chance of making it into the law, as do a number of the 
reforms regulating campaign spending and the media.  However, 
we expect parliament to water down several of these articles 
before approving it. 
 
¶19. (SBU) From a political standpoint, it appears that each 
of the two blocs got some of what they wanted in the draft 
law.  It is a hopeful sign that the Committee was actually 
able to finish its work by its deadline and produce a draft 
for parliament to consider.  Now there will be pressure for 
parliament to approve a law by the Eid deadline and not 
disrupt the prevailing positive political atmosphere by 
postponing action on the electoral law, the last remaining 
item from the Doha Accord.  For that reason, we would expect 
that key controversial measures will not be changed now, but 
will be left for consideration at another time.  End Comment. 
 
GRANT