VZCZCXRO2126
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHBP #0812/01 2700709
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 260709Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY BAMAKO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9664
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BAMAKO 000812 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ML
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION NEWSPAPER'S TALLY OF PUBLIC OPINION IN 
MALI 
 
¶1. Summary:  On September 18 Info-Matin, a Malian daily often 
highly critical of President Amadou Toumani Toure, published 
the results of its annual pseudo-scientific public opinion 
poll.  The poll asked readers' opinions on a variety of 
issues including President Toure's management of the Tuareg 
crisis, the oft-postponed Head of State security summit, the 
Government of Mali's response to rising food prices, and 
perceptions of individual government Ministers.  The 1800 
respondents who participated in "Malian on the street" 
interviews generally proved more critical of the Malian 
government and its policies.  The 4400 individuals who either 
telephoned in or delivered written responses directly to 
Info-Matin's office, however, overwhelmingly supported key 
government initiatives, including negotiations with Tuareg 
rebels and price controls on rice, raising some suspicions of 
a write-in attempt to influence the survey results.  End 
Summary. 
 
----------------------------- 
Opinions on Northern Security 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2.  Although not specifically aligned with the opposition 
Rally for Mali (RPM) party led by former National Assembly 
president Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, Info-Matin often stakes out 
positions in line with RPM perspectives.  Info-Matin's daily 
circulation is estimated at somewhere between 3000 to 5000 
copies, limited to the capital city of Bamako.  The 
newspaper's 2008 opinion poll focused on perceptions of the 
Malian Prime Minister, Modibo Sidibe, and key government 
initiatives including President Toure's support for a 
negotiated solution with Tuareg rebels. 
 
¶3.  Nearly 80 percent of the 1800 individuals questioned 
during on the street interviews said they did not believe 
President Toure's oft-discussed and more oft-delayed Head of 
State summit on Sahel-Saharan security would bring peace to 
northern Mali.  Conversely, more than 75 percent of the 4400 
who submitted write-in responses said they believed the 
summit would result in peace.  More than 80 percent of on the 
street respondents opposed any "new" peace agreement with 
Tuareg rebels; only 26 percent of write-in respondents shared 
this view.  On the street and write-in respondents proved 
equally skeptical of the current round of Algerian mediated 
negotiations with the rebels, with a majority of each group 
rating the likelihood of success as low.  More than 77 
percent of street respondents rated Mali's policy of dialogue 
with the rebels as "bad", an opinion shared by only 18 
percent of write-in respondents. 
 
------------------------------------- 
Views of President Toure's Ministers 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶4.  The poll coincided with the one year anniversary of 
President Toure's nomination of Modibo Sidibe as Prime 
Minister and Sidibe bore the brunt of most respondents' 
frustrations with their government.  More than 78 percent of 
street respondents said they were not satisfied with Sidibe's 
performance as PM and 75 percent said Sidibe should be 
removed during the next Ministerial reshuffle.  Almost 82 
percent of write in respondents declared themselves 
dissatisfied with Sidibe, but only 41 percent of this group 
thought Sidibe's performance merited removal from office. 
 
¶5.  Sidibe's low popularity level could be linked to his 
apparently equally unpopular program, dubbed the "rice 
initiative", to lessen the impact of rising cereal prices for 
average Malians.  The rice project seeks to increase rice 
production by subsidizing inputs for rice farmers.  More than 
70 percent of street respondents said they thought the rice 
initiative was not a good solution to the rising cost of 
living.  However, these percentages were reversed by write in 
respondents, with 86 percent rating the rice initiative as 
good and only 11 percent assessing it as bad. 
 
¶6.  Opinions varied on which of Mali's other 26 Ministers 
most deserved to remain in place.  Minister of Energy and 
Mines, Ahmed Sow, despite being under a cloud of allegations 
of corruption stemming from his previous job overseeing an 
African investment project funded by the European Union, won 
the most votes from the street with a little more than 15 
percent. In the write-in ballots Minister Sow finished a 
close second to Minister of Urbanism Salimata Gakou Fofana. 
Foreign Minister Moctar Ouane finished a respectable fourth. 
The least popular, or perhaps simply the most unknown, 
Minister was Justice Minister Maharafa Traore. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
Comment: A Measure of Public Opinion or Private Ingenuity? 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
 
BAMAKO 00000812  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶7.  Info-Matin's poll seems to reflect a general skepticism 
over President Toure's decision to negotiate with Tuareg 
rebels and Prime Minister Modibo Sidibe's first year in 
office.  Dissatisfaction with the Malian government, however, 
does not seem to be as pronounced as other issues and 
headlines of Info-Matin would lead one to believe.  Perhaps 
the poll's most interesting result, however, was the swing 
between the 1800 individuals who participated in street 
interviews and the 4400 responses submitted directly to 
Info-Matin.  In so far as statistics go, the 1800 responses 
from street interviews probably provide a more reliable 
measure of Malian public opinion.  However, the ratio of 
write-in responses to street interviews was more than two to 
one - a fact which significantly altered the poll's overall 
result.  The overwhelming number of write-ins raised 
suspicion of a possible attempt by a resourceful individual 
to influence the direction of the poll's findings by flooding 
Info-Matin's offices with written responses; or it could 
simply reflect a genuine divergence of opinion separating 
those willing to send in written ballots as opposed to the 
average citizen on the street whose literacy and education 
level is likely somewhat lower than that of the average 
Info-Matin subscriber. 
LEONARD