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INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002756 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON KDEM JO
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENT'S FALL SESSION: A PREVIEW 
 
REF: A. AMMAN 2171 
     ¶B. AMMAN 2585 
     ¶C. AMMAN 2716 
     ¶D. AMMAN 1571 
 
AMMAN 00002756  001.4 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: Jordan's parliament will return for its 
ordinary session on October 5.  The first order of business 
will be the election of the speaker, a vote that current 
speaker Abdulhadi Al-Majali seems to have clinched already. 
Economic issues are set to dominate the agenda, with 
complicated (and controversial) measures on social security, 
real estate, and taxation at the fore.  Amendments to the Law 
on Associations and the establishment of a Chamber of 
Agriculture are also on the docket.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) On September 18, King Abdullah signed a proclamation 
summoning parliament into session on October 5.  This will be 
the second ordinary session of Jordan's 15th parliament, and 
will open with the King's annual "speech from the throne." 
Unlike the extraordinary session of parliament which 
concluded in July (Ref A), ordinary sessions do not have a 
fixed legislative agenda or a set format for debate.  MPs 
will be allowed to question ministers and debate topics of 
the day as they see fit.  While the pace of ordinary sessions 
often slows to a crawl due to parliamentary maneuvers and 
speechifying on the part of MPs, the open format can also 
allow for quick movement on issues that require parliament's 
immediate attention. 
 
Majali Likely To Stay On As Speaker 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The first item of business will be the annual 
election of the speaker.  Incumbent Abdulhadi Al-Majali seems 
poised to retain his position, in spite of continual 
grumbling among those who are not a part of his patronage 
network.  Media reports say that Majali's National Democratic 
Trend bloc, currently in the process of becoming a political 
party (Ref B), struck a deal with the National Fraternal Bloc 
(Al-Ikha) in which the latter would support Majali for the 
speakership in return for appointment of some of its members 
to committee chairmanships - a shrewd bargain which will 
allow the Ikha to punch above its weight class.  Falak 
Jemani, the only female MP to be elected outside of the quota 
for women, has again announced her intention to run, but has 
few supporters.  There are rumors that some other senior MPs 
(Mamdouh Al-Abbadi, Sa'ad Srour, Abdulrauf Rawabdeh) are 
considering throwing their hats into the ring, but unlike 
Majali they lack an established machine to amass the needed 
votes and are unlikely to be successful. 
 
The Agenda 
---------- 
 
¶4.  (U) The ordinary session will be dominated by economic 
legislation, with the notable exception of amendments to the 
Law on Associations.  Many of these laws, such as changes to 
Jordan's social security system and tax regime, are omnibus 
reforms which have been in the works for some time.  These 
are bread and butter issues which matter to ordinary 
Jordanians, and as such they will likely provoke long and 
acrimonious debate. 
 
Amendments to the Law on Associations 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The controversial Law on Associations, passed by 
parliament during the extraordinary session, was signed by 
the King with the understanding that amendments would soften 
some of the harsher elements of the new system (Ref C and 
previous).  Once input from civil society and the government 
is synthesized, PM Dahabi has indicated that he will give the 
amendments "urgent status" so they can be considered during 
the window between the King's signature and the entry of the 
law into force.  The government will have to stay focused and 
keep the pressure on the MPs to move quickly; having passed 
the original law in July in haste, MPs may seek to drag out 
the proceedings or tack on more changes this time around. 
 
Social Security Law 
 
¶6.  (U) This law is at the top of the government's agenda, 
having been delayed several times due to last-minute changes. 
 The bill would increase the age of retirement, require 
twenty-three years of service before retirement (up from the 
current fifteen), combine two separate social security 
mechanisms into one overarching system, and cap outlays at 
5000 JD (USD 7000) for wealthier Jordanians who benefit 
disproportionately in the current system.  The law is 
certainly on the radar screen of MPs, who will likely attach 
many amendments and prolong debate on the measure. 
 
Landlords and Tenants Law 
 
AMMAN 00002756  002.6 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) This is a broad-ranging law, originally passed in 
2000 but set to go into effect in 2010, that will change the 
face of the real estate market in Jordan.  It re-writes the 
book on the rights and responsibilities of landlords and 
tenants, ends rent control, and allows formal subletting for 
the first time.  The bill covers not only the rental of 
housing, but also other rental goods such as cars and 
equipment.  In anticipation of the law's taking force, the 
recent changes in the economy have led to a growing consensus 
that further amendments are needed before it takes effect. 
Many Jordanians worry about volatility in real estate prices 
that the law may produce, and fret that rich landowners will 
gain huge windfall profits at the expense of the working 
class.  Despite the public concern, the government has not 
done much to prepare public opinion or members of parliament 
for the enactment of these changes, which may make it 
difficult for the bill to pass through the lower house 
without significant amendments or delays. 
 
Tax Law 
 
¶8.  (SBU) This long-awaited reform would unify Jordan's 
scattered tax legislation into a uniform code.  The law is 
designed to be revenue neutral; it will abolish some taxes 
and raise others.  The bill has experienced a bumpy ride so 
far in the media: reports that the law would contain taxes on 
remittances and capital markets sparked public outrage and 
vehement denials from the Minister of Finance.  There is also 
concern that a recently-added provision which would allow the 
cabinet to offer "special tax incentives" to companies of its 
choosing would open the door to corruption.  USAID contacts 
indicate that a consensus on this law remains elusive at the 
cabinet level, and expect it to appear later in the ordinary 
session. 
 
Chamber of Agriculture Law 
 
¶9.  (SBU) This law was considered by parliament in the 
extraordinary session, but was delayed when MPs realized that 
further debate was needed.  The bill was sent back to a 
committee for further amendment and discussion.  As mentioned 
Ref D, the law would create a new Chamber of Agriculture to 
promote agri-business and the credibility of Jordanian 
agricultural producers.  Currently, an agricultural office 
exists within the Chamber of Commerce, but its role is fee 
collection, not oversight.  Jordan's agricultural community 
has been lobbying for this action for some time, as 
agricultural issues have languished in the current chamber. 
Several previous attempts have been made to pass similar 
versions of this law, but all were either delayed or blocked 
by the Chamber of Commerce. 
Beecroft