VZCZCXRO9661
RR RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHYE #0674/01 2401306
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 271306Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7939
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 0652
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1613

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000674 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/PPD AND EUR/CARC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL OPRC KPAO KMDR AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIAN MEDIA REACTION TO RUSSIAN RECOGNITION OF ABKHAZIA 
AND SOUTH OSSETIA INDEPENDENCE 
 
YEREVAN 00000674  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  SUMMARY: Armenian media widely covered Russian President Dmitry 
Medvedev's August 26 decision to recognize the independence of South 
Ossetia and Abkhazia.  While first reports were strictly factual, by 
August 27 Armenian media offered lengthy editorials.  Most Armenian 
press focused on how this decision will affect Armenian-Russian, 
Armenian-Georgian and Armenian-Turkish relations, as well as drawing 
parallels between South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh (NK). 
 The following presents a summary of local press reports and 
reaction, as well as CDA's response to local press on the issue. 
Official GOAM reaction to Russia's move is reported septel.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
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RUSSIA CROSSED THE RUBICON 
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¶2. Pro-government HAYOTS ASHKHAR (circulation 3,500) writes that by 
recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Russia 
has "repeated what the U.S. and its allies accomplished in Iraq and 
Kosovo."  The newspaper asserts that, at present, Russia has assumed 
the role of a "student who repeats the actions of the United States" 
and that the U.S. has "assumed the role of a critic who criticizes 
the actions that they themselves took several years ago." 
 
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A WAVE OF REGIONAL CHANGE 
------------------------- 
 
¶3. Centrist daily AZG (circulation 3,000) notes that Medvedev's 
decision to recognize these self-declared states will start a wave 
of change both in the CIS and in world politics.  "Obviously," it 
states, "neither the EU nor the United States will follow Russia's 
example in recognizing independence, although Medvedev advised them 
to do so."  According to the paper, it is also obvious that a "new 
phenomenon has begun in international relations, that of the 
'semi-recognized' state."  The paper states that, "Regardless of 
Europe and America's position, it is they who started it.  It is 
they who, breaking with international protocol of recognizing new 
sovereign states, recognized the independence of Kosovo."  The 
newspaper further notes that there is "still something positive 
about this matter for Armenia: From now on Armenia's recognition of 
Nagorno-Karabakh's independence will not be as strange as it might 
have been before these events.  However, in such circumstances the 
role of Armenia in the region is growing.  Armenia will become more 
important not only because of being the only stable state in the 
South Caucasus, but also because of becoming an alternative way for 
the West to reach the energy sources of the Caspian.  This is why 
the opening of the border with Armenia is becoming more and more 
important for Turkey, as transportation through Georgia will not be 
reliable any more.  Two days ago George W. Bush made a statement 
urging Russia not to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia.  The 
decision of Dmitry Medvedev showed the world that statements from 
the White House are not as influential as they used to be." 
 
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RUSSIAN POLITICAL LEVERAGE 
-------------------------- 
 
¶4. Opposition daily ARAVOT (circulation 4,100) editorializes, "It is 
obvious that no Western country will follow the example of Russia; 
moreover, the relations of influential countries with Russia will 
drastically worsen.  Let's put aside the analysis of this whole 
development and try to understand what Armenia should do in this 
situation:  It goes without saying that Russia will try to force its 
allies to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. 
Russia has a number of leverages it can use on Armenia.  If you 
don't recognize independence we will cut your gas, will deprive you 
of gasoline and will arm Azerbaijan."  The article adds, "Ignoring 
Russia's coercive measures will bring disastrous consequences.  But 
it will be equally dangerous for Armenia to recognize the 
independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as it will mean spoiling 
relations with Georgia.  Georgia might even close all its roads with 
Armenia.  By recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South 
Ossetia we will not be able to maintain our relations with Europe 
and the United States.  And last but not least, by recognizing the 
independence of these two countries and not recognizing the 
independence of NK, Armenia will put itself in an awkward situation. 
 Recognizing NK's independence will mean stopping the Minsk Group 
process and preparing for military action.  The only thing Armenia 
can do is to beg Russian authorities to understand them and not to 
impose anything on them.  But the Russians will hardly respect this 
request." 
 
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YEREVAN 00000674  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
ARMENIA BETWEEN TWO ROCKS AND A HARD PLACE 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. Opposition daily HAYKAKAN ZHAMANAK (circulation 4,840) states 
that on August 26, the Armenian Foreign Ministry refused to comment 
on the decision of the Russian president, saying that Armenia's 
position on the recognition of Abkhazia's and South Ossetia's 
independence will be announced at a later time.  In this situation, 
the newspaper concludes, Armenia appears to be between "three 
stones," stating, "On the one hand it cannot welcome the decision of 
Russia, as it will mean spoiling relations with Georgia.  On the 
other hand, Armenia cannot criticize the decision of the Kremlin and 
in addition, it will be hard for Armenia not to welcome the 
recognition of these two unrecognized states as NK is on the same 
level with South Ossetia and Abkhazia."  The paper then notes, "This 
situation is complicated for the most experienced diplomats, but for 
an MFA with diplomats of the Shavarsh-Kocharian type this issue is 
unsolvable."  The newspaper also quotes political scientist Aghasi 
Yenokian, who describes the decision of Russia as "desperate" and 
adds that this will "deepen the confrontation of Russia with the 
rest of the world."  According to Yenokian, the recognition of NK's 
independence will mean a resumption of military action.  The head of 
the Caucasus Institute and political scientist Aleksandr Iskandarian 
opined that "the recognition of independence of Abkhazia and South 
Ossetia by Russia does not mean that these states will be recognized 
internationally."  He noted that he believes that Armenia's 
recognition of NK would not change the settlement process. 
 
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JOURNALISTS EAGER FOR U.S. EMBASSY RESPONSE 
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¶6.  Official government paper HAYASTANI HANRAPETUTIUN (circulation 
6,000) reports that yesterday, during an event, journalists 
questioned CDA Pennington on the U.S. response to the conflict.  The 
paper quotes the CDA as stating that, "The latest crisis in the 
region shows the importance of opening the border and restoring 
economic and diplomatic ties between Armenia and Turkey," adding 
that, "The U.S. supports Georgia's territorial integrity.  The 
conflicting sides, especially Russia, must meet the commitments of 
the cease-fire regime."  Asked whether the recent events in the 
region may affect Armenian-Azeri relations, CDA said, "We saw the 
tragic outcome of the Georgian-Russian conflict, which should serve 
as a good lesson that there is nothing to be gained from military 
actions."  HAYOTS ASHKHAR, AZG and ARAVOT also covered CDA's 
comments. 
 
PENNINGTON