VZCZCXRO5255
RR RUEHDT RUEHPB
DE RUEHWL #0259/01 2340448
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 210448Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5370
INFO RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND 1718
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 5231
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY 0701
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000259 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR STATE FOR EAP/ANP 
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NZ
SUBJECT: POLLS SHOW THAT NATIONAL STILL ON TARGET FOR ELECTION WIN 
 
WELLINGTON 00000259  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Political polls released over the August 15-17 
weekend showed that National maintained its strong lead over Labour 
despite some missteps by senior National MPs that threatened its 
popularity.  While Labour is struggling to turn the tide, National 
appears impervious to much change in its support levels.  The polls 
also showed that Labour's support parties may struggle to survive 
the election.  The poll results were followed by the release of 
National's party list, which revealed significant emphasis on 
introducing much-needed diversity to National's ranks.  End 
Summary. 
 
Polls Show Crisis No Hindrance to National's Popularity 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  Three political polls released over the weekend of August 
15-17 showed that the opposition National Party maintained its clear 
lead over the governing Labour Party. These poll findings come after 
a difficult period for National, which was accused by Labour of 
harboring a hidden agenda after the media released taped recordings 
of private comments by senior National MPs at its annual conference 
of August 2-3. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  The comments, made by National's Deputy Leader Bill 
English and senior MPs Lockwood Smith and Nick Smith, were secretly 
recorded , and later released to the media for publication.  The 
comments hinted at a deviation from current National policy once it 
gets into government and greatly embarrassed those who made the 
comments and National's party leader, John Key. 
 
¶4. (SBU)  Labour had hoped that voters would react negatively 
towards National as a result of the published comments and thus 
punish it at the next polling round.  Indeed, a special August 19 
poll asking whether National is being open with its plans found that 
50 percent believed it wasn't, with only 37 percent saying the party 
was being open. However, the polls which gauged party support showed 
that despite this suspicion voters did not desert National but 
continued to express its support for it. 
 
National's Dominance Over Labour Continues 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU)  The Roy Morgan Poll of August 15 found National ahead of 
Labour 48 percent to 34 percent.  On August 16, the Fairfax-Nielsen 
Media survey showed National at 54 percent trumped Labour at 35 
percent.  The August 17 Colmar Brunton poll, New Zealand's most 
recognized political poll, had National at 51 percent and Labour at 
37%.  In the Fairfax poll, Key extended his lead over Prime Minister 
Helen Clark in the preferred prime minister polling by 5 points 
overall from previous polling to have a 43 to 31 percent advantage. 
The Colmar Brunton poll had a narrower margin, but still showed Key 
ahead of Clark, 36-33 percent. 
 
Labour's Support Parties Wither 
------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU)  Notable in the Fairfax-Nielsen Media and Colmar Brunton, 
considered more mainstream that the Roy Morgan poll, were the low 
levels of support for the minor parties, particularly Labour's 
current support parties, the Green Party and New Zealand First. 
Neither the Fairfax nor the Colmar Brunton poll found any third 
party had breached the 5 percent threshold needed for a party to 
return MPs to parliament.  On these findings, the Maori Party, 
United Future, ACT and the Progressives, all likely to win 
electorate seats, will be the only minor parties in the next 
parliament in small numbers.  On this basis, the Greens and New 
Zealand First, together with its leader Foreign Minister Winston 
Peters who is also unlikely to win a seat in a local constituency 
could be absent. 
 
National Party List Re-Shapes Image 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU)  On August 17, National also released its long awaited 
party list, which provided party rankings for its sitting MPs and 
candidates alike in the upcoming election.  Based on current 
polling, National is likely to secure a substantial percentage of 
the party vote which would allow for a large proportion of the 
ranked list to enter parliament, whether they win a seat or not. 
 
¶8. (SBU)  Noteworthy in National's new list was the high placement 
given to ethnic minorities.  On becoming National's leader in 2006, 
Key promised to bring into his party a greater ethnic mix.  National 
has previously faced criticism for being dominated by wealthy, white 
males.  The new list not only has more candidates from Polynesian, 
Asian and Maori background, it also has them placed in positions 
 
WELLINGTON 00000259  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
which virtually guarantee their entry into parliament at the next 
election.  These particular candidates do not appear to have been 
awarded these high rankings by virtue of their ethnicity alone. 
They are each highly qualified and educated in their own right, 
including the Samoan-born and Cambridge educated Peseta Sam 
Lotu-Iiga and Hekia Parata, a Maori woman, Harvard alumna and former 
New Zealand diplomat who has served in Washington. 
 
¶9. (SBU)  Comment.  Clark and her colleagues will be frustrated that 
Labour did not get a better bounce from this on a period of crisis 
for National.  These polls suggest that Labour's unrelenting 
strategy portraying National as untrustworthy and Key as unfit to 
lead is not working.  Labour will need to consider a different tack 
to address National's consistently elevated popularity as the 
election looms; November 8 as the most commonly predicted date.  Yet 
without a major misstep from National that would seriously erode its 
support, there appears little Clark can do to change the public's 
view that National is the government-in-waiting.  National's newly 
released party list places pressure on Labour to put forth some 
fresh faces, as its party list is expected on August 30.  End 
Comment. 
 
McCormick