VZCZCXRO7984
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV
DE RUEHVI #1146/01 2241526
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 111526Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY VIENNA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0744
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENNA 001146 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV AU
 
SUBJECT: AUSTRIAN YOUTUBE GENERATION VIEWS NATIONAL ELECTIONS 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. Young voters will provide a critical boost for smaller parties 
such as the Greens, the Liberal Forum, and, to a lesser extent, the 
far-right Freedom Party (FPO) in Austria's September 28 national 
elections.  The two governing parties, the Social Democrats (SPO) 
and the conservative People's Party (OVP), will gain the least from 
young voters, as confidence in both has plummeted after the collapse 
of the Grand Coalition.  Major election themes for young voters will 
mirror those of the general population, with priority issues being 
internal security, inflation, employment, pensions, tax policy and 
the social welfare system.  Education is an area of additional 
concern to young voters.  The stance taken by young politicians on 
issues like EU politics and military spending provide insight into 
the direction that future Austrian politicians may pursue, with 
pan-Europeanism and neutrality to remain core parts of the Austrian 
identity.  Despite the minimum voting age being lowered to 16 and an 
additional 184,000 first-time voters expected, the youth vote in 
Austria will not likely play a decisive role in the upcoming 
election.  Overall numbers are not large enough, a trend compounded 
by predictions that many young voters will abstain from voting out 
of protest against the Austrian government.  The findings in this 
report are based on a series of interviews with young politicians as 
well as representatives from politically-engaged youth 
organizations. End Summary. 
 
 
New Voting Age of 16 
-------------------- 
 
¶2. For the first time in a national election, Austrians can vote at 
the age of sixteen, one of the most generous minimum age 
requirements in the world.  This will usher in an estimated 184,000 
additional first-time voters.  Sixteen has been the minimum age in a 
few provincial elections, including Vienna in 2005 and Lower Austria 
earlier this year.  Contrary to fears that young voters would 
support more extreme right- or left-wing parties, most young 
Austrians voted in line with the general population.  Participation 
rates of young and first-time voters were also in line with the 
general population, typically between 60 and 80 percent, relatively 
high among European democracies.  At the national level, this group 
of young voters remains an unknown.  Most experts agree that they 
will be influenced by their parents, although to what degree remains 
open to debate.  Nonetheless, the relatively small size of this 
voting group limits its ability to impact the election outcome. 
 
Young Voters Less Engaged 
------------------------- 
 
¶3. Political engagement of Austria's youth remains limited and, by 
some measures, is decreasing.  While Austria boasts several large 
political youth organizations - the Socialist Youth with 63,000 
members and the Young OVP with 100,000 members - most political 
activity remains limited to existing members and membership has 
stagnated since the 1980s.  According to a study by the Center for 
Youth Research in Vienna, young people have become less politically 
active.  In 1990, 47 percent of people ages 14 to 24 considered 
themselves to be "very" or "somewhat" active; by 2006, this number 
had dropped to 30 percent. 
 
¶4. According political youth expert Bernhard Heinzlmaier, the 
decreased political engagement reflects a growing skepticism among 
Austrian youth about the country's politicians.  Young people have 
become disillusioned with politics as previous governments have 
produced few concrete results that benefit young voters 
(particularly evident with the current Grand Coalition). 
Representatives from political youth organizations speculate that 
this could lead to an increasing number of people who choose either 
not to vote or give "protest votes" done with the sole purpose of 
making coalition configurations difficult. 
 
Emphasis on Education 
--------------------- 
 
¶5. Education and socioeconomic background play a far greater role 
than age in determining election issue priorities, particularly in 
areas like immigration, tax policy, and social welfare.  For adults 
and young voters alike, key issues in the upcoming election will 
include internal security, inflation, employment, tax policy and the 
social welfare system.  In addition, young voters will concentrate 
on education policy, seeking improvements in apprenticeship and 
training program opportunities and better alignment of certification 
programs throughout the EU.  As in the previous election, the 
elimination of student fees is on the agenda for some parties (SPO 
and the Greens), although this will remain difficult to implement in 
light of recent government budget concerns. 
 
¶6. Other areas of concern for Austria's youth include EU policy and 
"peace" (anti-war) policy.  EU policy is a fairly uncontroversial 
 
VIENNA 00001146  002 OF 002 
 
 
issue for young voters as most accept Austria's continued 
participation in the EU, albeit with some reforms deemed necessary 
(according to the SPO view in particular).  Likewise, there is 
nearly universal agreement by young politicians across all parties 
that military spending should be reduced and allocated toward social 
programs.  Both issues provide insight into the direction that 
future Austrian politicians might pursue, with pan-Europeanism and 
neutrality to remain core parts of the Austrian identity. 
 
¶7. More than with adult voters, political parties are appealing to 
emotions and values to attract young voters.  According to Tina 
Tauss, president of the SPO-affiliate Young Generation, the large 
number of undecided young voters means that the election campaign 
will be intense, emotional, and personal. Both the SPO and the 
Greens are running anti-racism campaigns in response to the rise of 
anti-immigration sentiment and right-wing ideas embodied by the FPO. 
 The Greens are also using the theme of "justice" in their outreach 
campaigns while the SPO will promote themes like "equality of 
opportunity" and "solidarity."  The Liberal Forum party will appeal 
to young voters' affinity for independence.  In contrast to the 
other parties, the OVP has a more pragmatic agenda with an emphasis 
on concrete issues and fewer abstract voting themes, according to 
Young OVP member Sven Poellauer. 
 
Low Youth Turnout Expected 
-------------------------- 
 
¶8. As levels of dissatisfaction with Austrian politics are at a 
nearly all-time high, voting behavior is difficult to predict, 
particularly for young voters.  Dissatisfaction may drive young 
voters toward protest votes (abstaining or voting for smaller 
parties, regardless of political views) or more earnest 
participation.  Most young politicians believe that the first option 
is more likely, particularly with students.  Samir Al-Mobayyed from 
the Austrian Higher Education Youth Council noted that the timing of 
the elections, shortly before the beginning of the academic year, 
means that participation rates for students may be lower than in 
past years.  This may impact parties that receive a higher share of 
the vote from educated youth, particularly the Greens and the OVP, 
but will not have dramatic consequences. 
 
Smaller Parties Likely to Gain 
------------------------------ 
 
¶9. Smaller parties are expected to profit from the youth vote.  The 
Liberal Forum's more libertarian approach appeals to many young 
voters, as does the Green party's emphasis on youth-friendly topics 
like education, mobility, and environmental issues.  Thomas 
Geldmacher of the Greens feels that an additional strength is the 
party's grassroots organizational structure, which has proven 
effective in engaging young voters.  Of the two right-wing parties, 
the relatively small Future of Austria party (BZO) is not expected 
to gain much from young voters while the more popular FPO is 
expected to pick up votes, particularly from young voters with lower 
levels of education. 
 
¶10. The two governing parties are not likely to gain as much from 
the youth vote.  The SPO is expected to suffer the largest losses 
among young voters.  This is partly due to its failure to follow 
through on campaign promises to young voters - most notably, the 
abolishment of student university fees.  The SPO has also struggled 
to connect with young voters in recent years, as it is increasingly 
seen as an aging party for blue collar workers.  The OVP enjoys a 
slightly higher status among young people but is still likely to be 
affected by protest votes. It may also lose to parties like the 
Greens and the Liberal Forum, which have the same voter base of 
educated young people.