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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ULAANBAATAR 000373 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/CM, DRL AND INR/EAP 
 
E.O.: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KCOR SENV EMIN ENRG SOCI MG
SUBJECT: ONE MONTH AFTER MONGOLIAN RIOTING, POLITICAL IMPASSE 
CONTINUES 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: One month after post-election violence left five 
people dead, hundreds injured and the ruling party's HQ destroyed, 
Mongolia's two biggest parties remained locked in a stalemate over 
election results and the legitimacy of the new Parliament. 
Allegations of fraud against the ruling party continue, but no 
physical evidence has been produced.  While 10 seats remain 
contested, the ruling party has been awarded a majority, with at 
least 39 seats.  182 people continue to be detained by authorities 
in the July 1 violence, with demands for release, indictments and/or 
or bail becoming increasingly vocal by the public. END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Mongolia's opposition Democratic Party (DP) continues to 
allege election fraud by the ruling Mongolian People's Revolutionary 
Party (MPRP) in the June 29 Parliamentary elections, but the 
Democrats have declined to make public any physical evidence in 
support of this claim.  The Democrats say they have, however, 
presented evidence of election fraud to the General Election 
Commission (GEC).  The MPRP speaks quietly of election fraud by the 
DP, and attributes the MPRP's strong showing to a popular desire for 
stability, and to a flawed election strategy by the DP.  The 
Democrats, who according to one survey enjoyed a 4-percentage-point 
lead over the MPRP as little as seven weeks before the elections, 
were greatly surpassed by the MPRP at the polls, according to formal 
results announced by the GEC's Chairman.  In response to allegations 
of fraud in the latest elections, electoral authorities are 
reviewing results in three of the country's 26 electoral districts. 
With this in mind, the GEC has confirmed the winners of only 66 
Parliamentary seats; the 10 remaining seats are still contested. 
 
DEMOCRATS TARGET GEC CHIEF 
-------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) The 10 remaining seats are not all that is disputed.  The 
opposition DP says that although it accepts the first batch of 
election results announced on July 10 by GEC Chairman Battulga (a 
former MPRP MP) -- which gave the MPRP 36 seats and the DP 25 - the 
Democrats do not accept Battulga's July 14 announcement of more 
election results.  The DP maintains that Battulga violated the law 
by making this announcement without first consulting with other GEC 
members.  (Note: According to the July 14 results, the MPRP won 39 
seats, enough for a slim majority in the 76-seat Parliament. End 
Note.) 
 
¶4. On July 23, all 66 GEC-recognized newly elected MPs gathered at 
Government house for the new Parliament's opening session. 
Following a speech by President Enkhbayar and a statement by 
Battulga, the GEC chief faced a lengthy and vitriolic grilling by DP 
MPs who accused him of ineptitude, MPRP favoritism and worse. 
(Note: The Constitutional Court, or at least one of its judges - B. 
Purevnyam - has since deemed Battulga's July 14 statement 
"unlawful."  End Note.) 
 
PARLIAMENTARY WALKOUT 
--------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Three hours into the July 23 "session" at Parliament, all 
25 GEC-recognized newly elected Democratic MPs walked out before 
taking the oath of office, saying, among other things, that the 
entire nine-commissioner GEC should resign, along with the chief of 
police.  They insisted that the July 10 results be recognized. 
(Note: On July 29, President Enkhbayar called anew for newly elected 
MPs to gather in Parliament, but 23 of the 25 Democratic MPs failed 
to appear. End Note.)  Since then, two five-member so-called 
"consensus-building" teams from the MPRP and DP have held on-again, 
off-again talks aimed at finding a way out of the impasse.  The two 
parties have not even been able to agree on whether the new 
Parliament has technically opened its first session; the MPRP 
maintains that in the absence of oath-taking, Parliament is not in 
session.  The DP, on the other hand, points out that the President 
and the GEC Chairman addressed the newly elected MPs, as required by 
law, and that the session has commenced even without the swearing in 
of new lawmakers.  There were indications on July 31 that the MPRP 
was moving toward acceptance of the DP's demand that 62 MPs - the 
number cited by the GEC in Battulga's July 10 statement - would be 
sworn in on August 4; however, post has not yet been able to confirm 
this with the MPRP. 
 
 
ULAANBAATA 00000373  002 OF 003 
 
 
SMALL PARTIES, BIG LOSERS 
------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The big losers were not the Democrats, who appear poised to 
slightly increase their seat total in Parliament (once the final 
election results are completed), but the smaller parties and 
independents.  (Note: Seven parties gained seats in Parliament in 
the 2004 elections - the MPRP, DP, New National, Motherland, Civil 
Will, Republican and People's parties.  In 2008, however, members of 
only three parties - the MPRP, DP and Civil Will - along with one 
independent, were elected to Parliament, according to the current 
GEC results.  End Note.)  On July 30, Secretary General Tsogtgerel 
of the New National Party (NNP), which went from four Parliamentary 
seats to four years in the political wilderness, met with Emboffs 
and expressed exasperation over recent political developments. 
Tsogtgerel called the level of recent election fraud "shameless" and 
said the MPRP and DP had conspired to rig the elections at the 
expense of smaller parties.  (Note: Tsogtgerel did not provide any 
material evidence to support this allegation.  End Note.) 
 
¶7. (SBU) Tsogtgerel asked why international organizations and 
observers had called the elections "free and fair."  (Note: Emboffs 
responded that the USG had never characterized the June 29 elections 
as "free and fair," stating instead that the Embassy's Election 
Monitoring Team did not, on Election Day, see any indication of 
systematic or widespread fraud. End Note.) Republican Party chief 
Zorigoo, whose party lost its sole seat in Parliament, met the same 
day with Emboffs and said the election fraud was "obvious," with 
open transfers of money and goods occurring.  (Note: Like the DP, 
the NNP and other parties, including the Social Democrats, Civil 
Movement and the Green Party, the Republican Party was either 
unwilling or unable to provide any physical evidence of election 
fraud.  End Note.) 
 
INDEPENDENTS LIVID 
------------------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) Although 56 independents ran for Parliament in the recent 
elections, only one - popular journalist Z. Altai - has been 
confirmed as winning office.  On July 29, Emboffs met with one of 
the other 55: J. Zanaa, a prominent human rights activist and 
leading figure in the women's rights movement in Mongolia.  She 
said, without elaboration, that she had faced "deep harassment" 
during the campaign season, adding that there was no way 
independents could compete with candidates from the MPRP and DP, 
which she said spent up to $2 million in support of each candidate. 
Zanaa said that the two Civil Movement leaders currently in 
detention in connection with the July 1 mayhem did not take part in 
the violence and are being held merely for exercising freedom of 
speech.  Zanaa said election fraud was widespread on June 29, but 
conceded that she had no evidence to support this assertion.  She 
also blamed law-enforcement officials for "agitating" the 
demonstrators outside of the MPRP HQ on July 1, adding that these 
officials are responsible for the shooting deaths that occurred. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) The prospects for a near-term solution to Mongolia's 
political impasse seem bleak.  To review only some of the problems: 
 
-- The ruling MPRP and opposition DP disagree over whether the 
latest (July 14) elections results are valid; 
 
-- The MPRP and DP disagree over whether the 182 detainees who 
remain behind bars in connection with the July 1 violence should be 
released or not; 
 
-- The MPRP and DP disagree over whether the new Parliament has held 
its opening session, as required by law within 30 days of the 
national elections.  (This may open the door for intervention by the 
Supreme Court or the entire Constitutional Court, bodies not always 
known for efficiency or impartiality); 
 
-- The GOM has not announced any public steps to address allegations 
that detainees have been mistreated or tortured; 
 
-- Law enforcement has not named any suspects or announced any 
arrests of suspects responsible for the July 1 killings; 
 
ULAANBAATA 00000373  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶11. (SBU) As usual, the rumor mill is firing on all turbines.  Some 
say a coalition government will be formed, although we see this as 
difficult for the MPRP to stomach.  Others say the DP will agree to 
recognize Battulga's July 14 election results, but only if the MPRP 
gives it wide latitude in the rewriting of the Election Law and 
amendment of the Constitution (with regard to elections).  (Note: We 
have heard that the MPRP and DP are in general agreement that both 
the Election Law and the Constitution are in need of amendment.  We 
also hear that both parties agree that the new Parliament should 
focus, as its first priority, on amendment of the Law on Mineral 
Resources.  End Note.) 
 
¶12. (SBU) Post believes that time is on the side of the MPRP, and 
that the Democrats will lose public support the longer they continue 
their boycott of Parliamentary proceedings.  In the absence of 
unified action by the entire political opposition -- which, like 
more violent demonstrations, cannot be ruled out -- the MPRP is 
likely to continue its domination of Mongolia's political system. 
Post will continue to urge peaceful reconciliation to end the 
current impasse.  We hope, however, that all of those responsible 
for bloodshed or destruction -- civilians or public servants -- will 
be held accountable.  If Mongolia fails to take meaningful action in 
support of rule of law at this critical juncture, the wrong message 
will be sent to hooligans and their political patrons, and the 
rioting of July 1 could be repeated on a larger scale. 
MINTON