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PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSQ #0507/01 2200550
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 070550Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7590
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 0390
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RUEHSQ/USDAO SKOPJE MK
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2328
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000507 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ANGRY SDSM RETURNS TO PARLIAMENT AS 
VMRO-DUI COALITION MAINTAINS MOMENTUM 
 
REF: A. SKOPJE 464 
     ¶B. SKOPJE 496 
 
SUMMARY 
 
¶1. (C) President Crvenkovski reached agreement August 1 with 
the main opposition party SDSM to end its boycott of 
parliament and the Association of Local Self-Government Units 
(ZELS).  The party returned in exchange for a presidential 
pardon on all charges against SDSM VP and Strumica mayor 
Zoran Zaev and the President's refusal to sign all laws 
passed by the VMRO-DUI coalition under emergency procedures 
in the previous weeks.  (The "veto" has no real effect; 
parliament has already re-passed these and Crvenkovski is 
obliged to sign them the second time around.)  The President 
also sought to broker eAlbanian party DPA,s return by 
sending back the language law;  there are indications that 
DPA will return to Parliament after the recess to present 
their language law proposal, but it is not certain this will 
occur.  Parliament is now in recess, but there is no real 
modus vivendi between VMRO and SDSM, so the opposition's 
continued participation is hardly guaranteed.  Meanwhile, the 
VMRO-DUI coalition will likely hold at least until next 
spring.  End Summary. 
 
The President Makes a Deal 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) On Aug. 1, President Crvenkovski crafted a 
controversial two part deal, seeking to secure the return to 
Parliament of boycotting opposition parties.  His own party 
SDSM agreed to return to Parliament following his pardon of 
SDSM VP Zoran Zaev, initially arrested July 17 on corruption 
charges in a manner that raised questions about the VMRO 
Government's political motivations (reftel A). To attempt to 
secure the return of e-Albanian opposition party DPA, 
Crvenkovski used his "soft veto," refusing to sign the laws 
rushed through Parliament in the last three weeks in the 
absence of the opposition, including the language law (reftel 
B), which DPA criticized as weak and regressive on the 
official use of the Albanian language.  Note: The President 
is required by the Constitution to sign any laws re-passed by 
a simple majority of Parliament following a veto.  End note. 
 
¶3. (U) SDSM's return to Parliament came sooner than expected, 
as some dozen SDSM MPs returned from an official recess for 
an August 4 "emergency session" convened to 
re-pass the language law in order to overcome the President's 
veto.  With the opposition still absent, 
Parliament also re-passed 58 laws on August 1 and 2, before 
declaring a recess until August 25.  SDSM's coalition 
partners LDP, LP and NSDP did not participate in the August 
4 session, but are expected to return after the recess. 
 
¶4. (SBU) DPA did not return to Parliament for the August 4 
emergency session, and in a concurrent press conference party 
leaders called the session "the height of arrogance and a 
violation of all democratic procedures." DPA's Imer Aliu told 
us that they will return to Parliament after the 
recess, and will bring to the table their own draft language 
law.  However, DPA has not officially announced this, and 
other DPA contacts would not say definitively whether the 
party would indeed return. 
 
Constitutional Crisis Averted: The Laws Will Stand 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶5. (SBU) The President's Chief of Staff, Natasha Savova, told 
us August 5 that the President will sign the re-passed laws, 
including the Language Law, upon his return from vacation in 
Turkey.  There has been speculation that he would refuse to 
do so, since re-passage of many of the laws occurred before 
he formally notified the Parliament of his initial intent not 
to sign.  A refusal to sign the re-passed laws could have 
sparked a constitutional crisis, and a lengthy delay of 
Parliamentary activities for a constitutional court review. 
 
SDSM: No Problem with the Language Law, But Problems with 
Procedures 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
 
SKOPJE 00000507  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶6. (U) In the August 4 emergency session, SDSM MPs present 
voted with the VMRO-DUI coalition in favor of the language 
law, passing it with a vote of 75-0.  Prior to their return, 
SDSM leaders had indicated that they did not have a problem 
with the substance of the law, but with the Parliamentary 
procedures.  Most of SDSM's floor time in the August 4 debate 
was devoted to criticizing the calling of 
an emergency session during the recess, and noting that they 
were not informed of the 3:00 pm session until 12:30 pm, 
making it impossible for many MPs to return from vacation. 
SDSM MPs repeatedly called the new Parliamentary rulebook 
passed in their absence "your rulebook" in addressing 
Parliamentary President Trajko Veljanovski.  The session was 
procedurally challenging, and a visibly irritated Veljanovski 
called for two recesses to "coordinate." 
 
 
VMRO-DUI Coalition to Hold...For Now 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶7. (C) In the short run, it is unlikely that either SDSM or 
DPA will be able to use often tense VMRO-DUI dynamics as a 
wedge to increase their influence.  DUI MP Teuta Arifi 
confirmed to us the existence of a much-rumored secret 
document outlining the coalition agreement between DUI 
and VMRO, calling for many of the same elements as in the May 
29 agreement: the language law, benefits for victims -- 
including eAlbanians -- of the 2001 violence; and equitable 
representation in state institutions.  Additionally, the 
document notes VMRO,s commitment to recognize Kosovo, but 
only after the successful demarcation of key areas of the 
border (the same line the GOM has taken with us on this 
issue).  DUI will also support its VMRO partner in the name 
dispute with Greece, as long as any new name does not contain 
a reference to the  Slavic, or  Yugoslav, character of 
the country.  She added that the VRMO-DUI agreement is a 
one-year plan. 
 
¶8. (C) Senior DUI leader and Minister for Local 
Self-Government Musa Xhaferi also told us that he doesn't 
expect the period of DUI's peaceful coexistence in the 
VMRO-coalition to exceed this period without further 
concessions from VMRO, saying that while the party took the 
politically expedient course and agreed to incremental 
progress on the use of Albanian in the new language law, DUI 
plans to increase the pressure on the Government for more 
tangible progress on this and other issues important to the 
e-Albanian community following next spring's local elections 
(reftel B). 
 
DPA Out in the Cold? 
-------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) As for DPA, its demands for returning to parliament 
are not all that different from what VMRO and DUI reportedly 
agreed to, though DPA is pushing harder on issues such as the 
uses of flags and the recently-returned ICTY cases (DPA wants 
all charges dropped).  Should VMRO-DUI dynamics remain on 
track, it would seem to give DPA increasingly less traction 
in its claim to be the genuine standard-bearer for the 
interests of the eAlbanian community. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10. (C) Crvenkovski's actions produced a rhetorical outburst 
from VMRO, and some concerns within SDSM regarding the 
lingering damage Zaev will suffer as a result of the pardon. 
But they did serve as a catalyst to end the Parliamentary 
crisis prior to the August recess.  SDSM has decided to 
change tactics vis-a-vis VMRO, by supporting Government 
proposals they agree with (e.g. language law, pension 
increases) and being more selective in their criticisms. 
Both VMRO and SDSM have an interest in a Parliament that 
appears to function.  We are encouraging a return to the 
practice of periodic leadership meetings as a means of 
maximizing prospects of success. 
Navratil