VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUL #1710/01 2410631
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 280631Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY SEOUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1399
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 4677
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 4803
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 8930
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUALSFJ/COMUSJAPAN YOKOTA AB JA
RUACAAA/COMUSKOREA INTEL SEOUL KOR
RHMFISS/COMUSKOREA J5 SEOUL KOR
RHMFISS/COMUSKOREA SCJS SEOUL KOR
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC//OSD/ISA/EAP//

UNCLAS SEOUL 001710 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KS KN
SUBJECT: LEE MYUNG-BAK'S OLYMPIC MOJO: POLL INCREASES 
LIKELY TEMPORARY 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Recent opinion polls conducted by various 
ROK media agencies show that President Lee Myung-bak's 
approval rating is recovering, reaching between 24 to 31 
percent in various polls taken from August 23.  Pundits note 
that the recent increase was mainly due to Korea's success at 
the Beijing Olympic Games and the gradual lull of the 
anti-U.S. beef protests.  However, public opinion of 
President Lee could change rapidly for the worse if his new 
policies to privatize state-run companies and to reform the 
real estate market and related tax system are not well 
received.  The policies are purportedly to overcome the 
stagnation of the Korean economy and to reduce the cost of 
living.  If they fail, however, his Olympic boost could be 
short-lived as dissatisfaction with Lee is still wide-spread. 
 End Summary. 
 
-------------- 
MB's Baby Bump 
-------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) President Lee Myung-bak's (MB) approval rate was 
74.4 percent on February 4, according to Korean Gallup, 
before the February 25 inauguration.  Since then, his 
approval rating gradually fall to approximately 50 percent in 
March -- due to public criticism of his personnel choices -- 
and then to approximately 30 percent at the end of April 
because of his decision to resume U.S. beef imports. 
According to Media Research, his approval rate plummeted to 
17.2 percent in early June as a result of the candlelight 
rallies against U.S. beef imports, and due to the increase of 
prices of oil and commodities.  The approval rate slightly 
increased to 22.7 percent in July according to the Korean 
Society Opinion Research Institution, but MB's public rating 
has faced multiple obstacles such as the perceived 
mishandling of a shooting death of a tourist at Mount Kumgang 
resort in North Korea and Japan's renewed public claims on 
the Liancourt Rocks (Dokdo/Takeshima). 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Specifically, Hangil Research carried out a survey 
on the President's diplomatic policies toward Japan and the 
U.S. on 19-20 July.  According to the survey, approximately 
72 percent of those polled responded negatively to President 
Lee's attitude and policies on Japan compared to only 15.4 
percent who responded positively. Also, approximately 67 
percent responded negatively to President Lee's diplomatic 
policies on the U.S. while 23.9 percent answered positively. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) According to recent media reports and opinion 
polls, President Lee Myung-bak's popularity is recovering. 
Korea Gallup said President Lee's approval rate reached 24.1 
percent, up 3.4 percentage points from the previous survey on 
June 28. The survey of 1,005 adults was conducted on August 
¶23.  Also, according to Korean Research, Lee's approval rate 
reached 31.2 percent, up 4.3 percentage points from the 
previous survey on July 14.  The survey of 1,000 adults was 
also conducted on August 23.  In the same vein, the ruling 
Grand National Party's (GNP) approval rating increased from 
29.8 percent in June to 38.2 percent in August while that for 
DP plunged from 18.3 percent to 16.5 percent over the same 
period of time, according to Korean Gallup.  Korean Research 
also said the approval rating for the GNP rose from 30 
percent to 35.1 percent. 
 
--------------- 
Gold Medal Glow 
--------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Most pundits attribute the recovering approval rate 
to Korea's better-than-expected performance in the Beijing 
Olympic Games and the gradual settlement of the beef row. 
The Olympics, in particular, moved public attention from 
economic difficulties and thorny issues like the bribery 
scandal involving the first lady's sister.  GNP and Blue 
House sources cited in the press pointed out that the 
President has been regaining popularity since the disputes 
over U.S. beef imports, public appointments and Japan's claim 
to the Liancourt Rocks have mellowed.  Thanks to this and the 
normalization of the National Assembly, the government is now 
pursuing economic reforms more aggressively. On the other 
hand, multiple sources argue that the recovering approval 
rate is merely due to "return of tame rabbits," meaning that 
 
the return of MB's traditional support base does not spell an 
end to criticism. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The uptick in support is a move in the right 
direction.  Lee's recently renewed support, however, might 
not last for several reasons.  First, the appointment of 
heads of state-run companies and research institutions as 
well as broadcaster KBS is likely to rekindle political and 
social anger.  Second, the stagnant economy and rising prices 
of commodities are burdens for all Koreans and the "economic" 
President Lee, right or wrong, gets blamed for not easing 
this pain.  Even though his staff claim that the president's 
commitment to economic reform will enhance his ratings, the 
array of policies regarding the real estate market, the 
public sector, the tax system, plus energy and financial 
industries are also controversial and many claim they are 
either wrong-headed, only help the wealthy, or worse, both. 
VERSHBOW