VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSO #0458 2420831
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 290831Z AUG 08
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8479
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 9615
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 8823
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 3157

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000458 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD 
 
DEPT PASS USTR 
 
USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: GEORGIA-RUSSIA CRISIS; U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN 
 
In Transition 
 
Editorial in liberal Folha de S. Paulo (08/28) says: "The crisis in 
Georgia exposes limits of the Western reaction (to the crisis) and 
shows a need in adapting diplomacy to a new reality. ... Russia 
affirms to the world that the attempt in promoting Georgia's 
territorial reintegration might detonate a conflict between the two 
major nuclear superpowers.... Russian President Dimitri Medvedev 
bets on a cold calculus between the Western superpowers: support to 
Georgia does not compensate for all the risks associated with a 
confrontational dispute with Russia.  And it is not only a matter of 
military argument... The Americans themselves have no interest in 
breaking bridges with the Kremlin, it is important to deal with 
sensitive issues for Washington, such as Iran's ascension.... By 
coincidence, this transition in the rules of the international game 
finds the U.S. in the middle of a presidential campaign.  If the 
U.S. is aware of this new reality, both John McCain and Barack Obama 
will understand that they will need to turn the page of the foreign 
policy conducted during eight years by George W. Bush." 
 
The Russian Climb In the Caucasus's 
 
Editorial in center-right O Estado de S. Paulo (08/28) comments: 
"Aware of the foreseeable protests against the decision of 
recognizing unilaterally the independence of Georgian separatist 
provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia...the U.S. and European 
Union try to persuade Moscow that the tensions incited against the 
West are against their best interests...Russia's disproportionate 
reaction to Saakashvilli's adventure...might lead Russia into 
isolationism, bringing political and economic damage, whose 
importance should not be underestimated by their leaders... The fact 
is the European Union is reluctant to go further than words before 
Russian aggressiveness." 
 
Obama tries to captivate the center to beat McCain 
 
Editorial in business daily Valor Econtmico (08/28) says: "...In the 
last months, Obama showed himself to a good part of the electorate 
as an inexperienced, hesitating politician, who defends an ambiguous 
program with vague ideas but brilliant rhetoric.  After Hilary gave 
up, Obama did what every politician would do, no matter how he 
clamored for change -he moved to the center.  Part of this is pure 
political calculus and defensive action. ... However, there is a 
price to be paid, which is the disappointment to part of this 
electorate, who believed that the renewing campaign of Obama would 
be maintained until the end...  By Obama winning the battle to be 
the Democratic candidate and dragging millions of voters to 
previously apathetic primaries shows that important transformations 
are under way in the country.  We need to see if they are strong 
enough to overcome prejudices and the conservatism of a great part 
of the electorate." 
White