VZCZCXRO2982
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHSA #1831/01 2311337
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 181337Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5441
INFO RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN IMMEDIATE 5933
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN IMMEDIATE 0092
RUEHJO/AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG IMMEDIATE 8298
RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 001831 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/S (MARBURG), AF/RSA, H (AMACDERMOTT) 
DEPT PLEASE PASS TO HILL STAFFERS RKING, P-AMARSH, DBERAKA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM OVIP SF ZI
SUBJECT: SAG DEFENDS ZIMBABWE POLICY IN CODEL BERMAN MEETING 
 
PRETORIA 00001831  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
This is the second of three cables reporting on CODEL 
Berman's July 1-6, 2008 visit to South Africa.  This cable is 
Sensitive but Unclassified.  Not for Internet distribution. 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  On July 3, 2008, DepForMin Aziz Pahad 
thanked CODEL Berman for visiting South Africa and expressed 
appreciation for congressional funding to combat HIV/AIDS and 
support for legislation removing anti-apartheid activists 
from the U.S. terrorist list.  During a lively and at times 
pointed exchange on Zimbabwe, Pahad strongly defended South 
Africa's policy and urged the CODEL to support the African 
Union's call for a government of national unity, which Pahad 
claimed is "the only way out of the Zimbabwe crisis."  South 
Africa is focused on facilitating dialogue between ZANU-PF 
and the MDC and believes calls for new mediators and 
expansion of smart sanctions are not helpful.  On South 
Africa's domestic front, Pahad suggested that the recent 
shift in ANC leadership was "healthy," although he admitted 
that in his view the sweeping changes in the party were "too 
soon."  The South African Government (SAG) was doing its best 
to confront the country's challenges, many of which were 
inherited from the previous regime.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (U) CODEL Berman, accompanied by Ambassador, 
EconCounselor, and PolOff (notetaker), met with DepForMin 
Aziz Pahad on July 3 at the Union Building.  DFA DepDG for 
the Americas and Europe Gert Grobler and Americas Director 
Fadl Nacerodien joined Pahad.  Pahad warmly welcomed the 
CODEL to South Africa, and thanked the CODEL for their 
support for U.S. funding for HIV/AIDS in Africa and the 
recently-passed legislation that removed the "terrorist" 
designation from ANC and other anti-apartheid activists. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
National Unity "Only Solution" for Zimbabwe 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) On Zimbabwe, Pahad strongly defended President 
Mbeki's diplomatic approach.  The recent AU resolution on 
Zimbabwe, calling for a government of national unity, should 
serve as a "guideline" for the international community, Pahad 
argued.  "No one party can solve Zimbabwe's crisis," Pahad 
argued, "the challenges are too deep."  To promote the 
national unity government -- which Pahad claimed is "the only 
way forward" -- South Africa is trying to get ZANU-PF and the 
MDC to start meeting.  Despite the MDC's public preconditions 
on talks, Pahad believed that both parties will negotiate 
through the South African facilitation; "they have no option 
but serious dialogue." 
 
¶4. (SBU) Pressed by several congressman on the failure of 
South Africa's "quiet diplomacy" policy, Pahad pled for "a 
few months to solve the problem."  He stressed that the SAG 
is deeply concerned about the "urgent" situation, but is 
focused on negotiations to avoid the "Kenya situation." 
Zimbabwe is not an "academic exercise for us," he noted, 
adding that the region "cannot escape the negative backlash 
should a civil war erupt."  "Don't underestimate the level of 
concern," Pahad stressed, admitting that the economic 
situation has become "ridiculous" and a "disaster." 
 
¶5. (SBU) Pahad dismissed calls for a new Zimbabwe mediator, 
Q5. (SBU) Pahad dismissed calls for a new Zimbabwe mediator, 
suggesting that such a person would "have to start over" and 
would waste "limited time."  He also suggested the Mutumbara 
faction must be part of any transition.  On sanctions,  Pahad 
argued that "smart sanctions" are just an "illusion" and will 
achieve nothing.  The business community has "already imposed 
its economic sanctions" on Zimbabwe. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
ANC Leadership Changes Healthy; Confronting Challenges 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) On South Africa's political evolution, Pahad 
explained to the CODEL that the ruling African National 
Congress (ANC) had recently gone through a major transition, 
with most of the senior SAG leadership, including Pahad 
himself, "peacefully removed" from the party leadership at 
the December 2007 Polokwane conference.  Pahad mused that 
after 15 years "perhaps it is time for change."  In the 
long-run, Pahad argued that the transition will be "healthy" 
 
PRETORIA 00001831  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
for the party and the country, if "managed properly" -- 
adding, with a tinge of regret, that he personally believed 
it was "too soon" for a major shift in leadership.  He 
suggested that the party will unify before the April/May 2009 
elections and work for a common "manifesto." 
 
¶7. (SBU) While South Africa has made significant progress 
since the democratic transition in 1994, Pahad noted that the 
country faces many serious challenges.  South Africa 
inherited many deep-seated and complex problems, which will 
take decades to solve.  In addition, the press tends to 
exaggerate the negative, Pahad noted, without recognizing the 
SAG's achievements, such as the millions of new houses, free 
water and electricity, and expansion of 13 million social 
grants, including to orphaned children up to the age of 16. 
Commenting on current developments, Pahad observed that: 
 
-- South Africa's electricity crisis, brought about by 
larger-than-expected growth and the provision of free 
electricity to poor South Africans, was badly handled, 
although the situation has improved in recent months; 
 
-- the SAG does not expect to reach the IMF-projected growth 
rate of five percent for this year; 
 
-- the SAG is tackling unemployment through greater emphasis 
on basic and vocational skills (making the "unemployable" 
employable); and 
 
-- President Mbeki was committed to tackling the recent 
xenophobic attacks ("which shocked us all"), as evidenced by 
his public remarks at a July 3 memorial service for the 
victims. 
 
------------------------------------- 
Africa Major Focus for Foreign Policy 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Pahad stressed that South Africa cannot sustain its 
prosperity and democracy without "dealing with Africa." 
Repeating President Mbeki's mantra, Pahad noted that South 
Africa cannot be an "island of prosperity in a sea of 
poverty."  To promote Africa's development, South Africa is 
contributing significant troops to peace operations (the 
fourth largest troop contributor in the world); is focusing 
on post-conflict reconstruction in countries like Burundi, 
DRC and Rwanda; is trying to improve governance in Africa 
through the Africa Peer Review Mechanism and other fora; and 
is promoting trade liberalization at the WTO.  Africa needs 
the support of the international community to meet the 
Millennium Development Goals, a point President Mbeki will 
press at the G-8 summit. 
BOST