VZCZCXRO0851
OO RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHVC
DE RUEHOT #1142 2411536
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 281536Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8414
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS OTTAWA 001142 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL CA
SUBJECT: CANADIAN ELECTION SPECULATION HITS FEVER PITCH 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Prime Minister Harper decided on August 26 to 
keep Governor General Michaelle Jean in Ottawa through early 
September.  Local media and commentators interpret the move as the 
clearest sign yet that Harper may soon call an autumn snap election. 
 If Harper does make the announcement in early September, Election 
Day could be October 14 or October 20, according to our contacts. 
End summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) Under Canada's Constitution the Governor General, acting on 
the advice of the Prime Minister, has the authority to dissolve 
Parliament and order elections.  The Prime Minister must formally 
request a dissolution and election.  In practice, the Governor 
General accedes to the Prime Minister's request and his recommended 
date for new elections.  The two must meet face-to-face for the 
dissolution interview, however, suggesting a possible motive for the 
Governor General's truncated international travel plans, according 
to our contacts and media reports. 
 
KEEPING ALL OPTIONS OPEN 
 
¶3. (U) On August 22, the Prime Minister had announced that Governor 
General Michaelle Jean would lead Canada's delegation to the 
Paralympic Games in Beijing.  The trip would mean she would be out 
of the country from September 4 to 10.  However, barely four days 
later, on the evening of August 26, the Governor General's 
spokesperson announced that the Prime Minister had asked the 
Governor General to cancel the trip "because of the current 
political uncertainty."  The Prime Minister's press secretary denied 
an announcement was imminent and said only that it was "prudent" to 
ask the Governor General to stay in Canada.  The schedule change 
bolsters media reports that PM Harper may call a snap election in 
the first week of September for a possible Election Day on October 
14 or 20.  Observers see the development as the clearest sign yet 
that Harper may not wait to be defeated in Parliament after the 
House of Commons returns on September 15. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Officially, Prime Minister Harper says that he will make a 
decision whether to call an election "in the next few weeks," but 
his insistence that the "the country must have a government that can 
function" and the change in the Governor General's plans, strongly 
suggest that he has already made up his mind in favor of a snap 
election call.  The change also illustrates the fluidity of the 
present situation and the speed with which events are moving. 
Harper seems motivated to control the timing of the election and he 
would clearly prefer to trigger it on his own terms rather than wait 
for the opposition parties to defeat him in Parliament after 
September 15.  Harper appears to be reserving maximum flexibility on 
timing, and ensuring the availability of the Governor General in 
Canada is a crucial precaution to that end. End comment 
WILKINS