VZCZCXRO2481
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1250/01 2301540
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 171540Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1646
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0102
RUEHRN/USMISSION UN ROME
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0288
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS 0108
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC 0271

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KHARTOUM 001250 
 
AIDAC 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, PRM, AF SE WILLIAMSON 
NSC FOR PMARCHAM, MMAGAN, BPITTMAN AND CHUDSON 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SP, USAID/W DCHA SUDAN 
NAIROBI FOR USAID/DCHA/OFDA, USAID/REDSO, AND FAS 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
NAIROBI FOR SFO 
NEW YORK FOR FSHANKS 
BRUSSELS FOR PBROWN 
USMISSION UN ROME FOR RNEWBERG 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC EAID PREF PGOV PHUM SOCI UN SU
SUBJECT: SUMMER 2008: TRENDS ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION IN SUDAN 
 
REF: KHARTOUM 1121 
 
KHARTOUM 00001250  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (U) BEGIN SUMMARY: During July and August, USAID's field officers 
provided information and analysis on sector trends throughout Sudan. 
 Examining the issues of safety and insecurity, food security, 
nutrition, health, returns, integration, and political process on a 
broader scale offers a chance to recognize and support positive 
changes, as well as an opportunity to mitigate those that are 
negative.   Although the analysis offered few surprises, reports 
indicated unanticipated positive gains in the area of health 
interventions.  By continuing to track and support the international 
partnership with Sudanese efforts for progress, Embassy Khartoum and 
USAID programming continues to play an active role in helping Sudan 
establish peace and move towards relief and recovery activities. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
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SECURITY 
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¶2. (U) In early July, the UN raised the security levels to Phase III 
in non-Darfur Sudan and Phase IV in Darfur.  While such a shift 
continues to impact the work of UN agencies and USAID's implementing 
partners, prior to the Phase shift, USAID field officers captured 
additional causes for concern, including increased incidents of 
carjacking, ongoing conflict, subsequent displacement, and 
government clashes with rebel forces. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Throughout Darfur, carjacking has increased and the modes 
and locations of recent incidents indicate new disturbing trends. 
In addition to increased attacks in urban areas of Darfur, USAID 
field officers noted an increase in livestock theft, attacks on 
empty UN convoys, and carjackers dressed as UN employees.  In areas 
of West Darfur, the situation in nearby eastern Chad continues to 
impact local security.  As a result of cross-border incursions in 
mid June, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) remain cautious 
regarding operations in West Darfur, despite UN efforts to assure 
partners and restart programs.  Throughout West Darfur, incidents of 
banditry have increased.  (NOTE: Such an increase underscores a 
government security apparatus that is either unwilling or unable to 
establish law and order, though we suspect the latter. END NOTE.) 
Some areas of West Darfur's southern corridor, including Mukjar, 
continue to enjoy relative calm, although due to the proximity of 
instability and conflict, the situation could change at any time. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) In North Darfur, the early summer months witnessed 
regrouping of armed movements. According to the UN, military and 
political regrouping of alliances among rebel groups and Arab 
militias offered cause for anxiety for Darfuris in these chronically 
problematic areas.  In addition, field reports indicate a greater 
frequency of clashes among various factions of the Sudanese 
Liberation Army. 
 
¶5. (SBU) In South Darfur, insecurity and bureaucratic impediments 
continued to interfere with humanitarian access and assistance.  In 
June and July, security and humanitarian access deteriorated due to 
localized fighting between ethnic groups, as well as the tightening 
of government restrictions. As populations flee areas of conflict, 
subsequent displacements have compounded an already-critical 
humanitarian situation.  In addition, humanitarian agencies reported 
an increased incidence of government obstruction through denying or 
delaying critical supplies e.g. fuel, demanding new requirements 
without any forewarning, introducing unexplained flight bans, and 
restricting access.  The increasing list of bureaucratic impediments 
continues to complicate assistance efforts. 
 
¶6. (U) In other areas of Sudan, implementing partners and UN 
 
KHARTOUM 00001250  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
agencies await the impact of the recent change in UN security phases 
on humanitarian programs and actors. However, despite the shift by 
the UN, localized conflicts in Southern Kordofan and a shooting 
incident in Agok in early July have perpetuated an environment of 
heightened caution and tension. To date, relief agencies continue 
program implementation while maintaining a quiet caution and strict 
attention to changes in the situation. 
NGOS continued to react and adapt flexibly in June and July. 
Nevertheless, further deterioration in security in the coming months 
due to on-going conflict, reduction in passable roads due to the 
rainy season, and staff relocations owing to the UN security phase 
change, could result in a further decrease in access, and thus raise 
even higher the stakes for humanitarian agencies and beneficiaries. 
As of mid August, NGOs and UN agencies report continued normal 
operations overall; however, concerns remain for the long-term 
effects of reduced staffing and supplies. 
 
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FOOD SECURITY 
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¶7. (U) Throughout Sudan, humanitarians and UN agencies remain 
concerned about food security and increasing food prices.  In July, 
representatives from the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization 
(FAO) indicated that Darfur remains prone to a near doubling of some 
commodity prices since 2007, as well as poor harvest, cross-border 
movement of food supplies, and continued tribal conflict.  In 
addition, FAO reported incidents of people selling livestock to 
purchase food, one of the critical indicators for a food insecure 
situation.  Although FAO continues to provide seeds and the UN World 
Food Program has provided a reduced food ration since May, food 
insecurity remains an eminent threat in Darfur.  In addition, USAID 
staff report that some residents have refused assistance in the form 
of seeds and tools, believing erroneously that the seed donation 
program and WFP's recent ration cuts are indicative of the end of 
all food aid to Darfur. 
 
¶8. (U) In July, FAO raised concerns regarding the impact of 
increasing global food prices on markets in Southern and eastern 
Sudan.  Southern Sudan is dependent on food imports from neighboring 
countries, particularly Uganda and Kenya, and humanitarian agencies 
and the Sudanese government and implementing partners continue to 
monitor the situation closely. In addition, the food security 
problem in Northern Bahr el Ghazal State continues to affect 
returnees and host communities in the area. Food insecurity is also 
a concern in eastern Sudan, particularly Kassala State.  In early 
August, USAID staff visited Kassala and met with FAO, the 
Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC), UN agencies, and NGOs to discuss 
the situation in Kassala.  A recent report by the Ministry of 
Agriculture (MoA) reported worrisome indicators, including the 
delayed rainy season, an increase in cereal prices, a rise in animal 
feed prices, high rates of animal mortality, and the sharp decline 
of livestock prices in the local markets.  According to FAO, the 
cereal price for a 50 kg bag of sorghum in Kassala has increased 
from 30 SDG in summer 2007 to 118 SDG in summer 2008. Sorghum is the 
main staple in Kassala State and 30 percent of the quantities sold 
go for animal feed. According to field sources, during July locally 
produced animal feed prices doubled or tripled.  The MoA report 
indicates that Kassala typically needs 21,000 MT of cereals per 
month for human and animal consumption; however, as of July and 
August, the state is experiencing a monthly gap of at least 4,900 
MT. 
 
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HEALTH AND NUTRITION 
-------------------- 
 
¶9. (U) Overall, USAID staff noted positive indicators regarding the 
health situation in Sudan.  To date, many of the seasonal health 
concerns have been mitigated by increased coping mechanisms as well 
as targeted programming by humanitarian agencies.  In Darfur, 
 
KHARTOUM 00001250  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
overall, the endemic diseases including diarrhea, acute respiratory 
infections, and malaria continue to display the same seasonal trends 
as in June and July 2007.  Although, as of late July, partners had 
not documented any cases of acute watery diarrhea in South Darfur, 
humanitarian agencies continue to intensify hygiene-promotion 
activities to prevent a possible outbreak with the approach of the 
rainy season. 
 
¶10. (U) According to USAID field reports, the health situation in 
northern Sudan and the Three Areas remains stable, with only a few 
small suspected outbreaks occurring during the reporting period. 
With the onset of the rainy season, cases of acute watery diarrhea 
have risen in Southern Sudan and northern Sudan, particularly 
Gedaref State.  In addition, health agencies have responded to 
suspected acute watery diarrhea outbreaks in Juba and Magwi 
counties.  Since early August, rains in Aweil, Northern Bahr el 
Ghazal State have caused heavy flooding, displacement, and concerns 
regarding a potential cholera outbreak. UN agencies and NGOs have 
responded with health, water/sanitation, and hygiene services, and 
are monitoring the situation closely. In addition, the UN has 
activated a national flood awareness taskforce which has developed 
contingency plans and pre-positioned supplies in the event of 
floods. Although the situation remains fairly stable, the peak of 
the flood season is typically around mid-September. 
 
¶11. (U) Since June, NGOs have reported increasing levels of 
malnutrition among Abyei internally displaced persons (IDPs) 
sheltering in Agok, Northern Bahr el Ghazal State.  Since late June, 
humanitarian agencies have conducted a rapid assessment of the 
situation in Agok, followed by a nutritional survey among IDPs and 
the host community in Agok.  Health agency staff working in Agok 
expect that the results of the latest survey will confirm that the 
high rates of malnutrition in Agok are connected to poor sanitation 
conditions rather than lack of access to food. 
 
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RETURNS 
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¶12. (U) Due to the ongoing rainy season, the UN's organized returns 
programs concluded in late June, but limited spontaneous returns 
continued throughout June and July.  Accumulated returns reached 2.1 
million IDPs and refugees, 200,000 of which were organized returns 
as of the end of May.  According to the UN, approximately 27,000 
IDPs and refugees have returned since the beginning of 2008.  UNHCR 
reported that 2,411 persons reached Central and Eastern Equatoria 
states from Uganda under May's organized voluntary repatriation 
program.  The latest arrivals bring the total repatriation of 
Sudanese refugees, including spontaneous movement, to approximately 
288,002 persons since 2005. Of this number, 135,082 returned under 
the organized and assisted self-repatriation programs.  According to 
the organizers, the joint organized return unit assisted significant 
numbers of IDPs during the last two years, and organizers foresee 
fewer returns in 2009, as compared with previous years. 
 
¶13. (SBU) The UN is making preparations to support spontaneous 
returns to Abyei, but to date only a small number of IDPs have 
returned.  As of late July, the majority of the 27,000 IDPs 
displaced to Agok from Abyei continued to receive humanitarian 
assistance from U.N. agencies and NGOs.  As malnutrition remains a 
concern among the displaced population, humanitarian agencies have 
augmented efforts to increase access to latrines and safe drinking 
water in order to mitigate the causal factors of the malnutrition 
problem in Agok.  During an August 9 meeting with US Special Envoy 
Richard S. Williamson, UNMIS Regional Coordinator David Gressly 
predicted that future rains and flooding could push people back into 
Abyei town because the town's plateau location.  Gressly stated that 
people will return despite the lack of services (schools, health 
clinics, etc.) available in Abyei. Gressly added that the security 
concerns of relief agencies working in the area may be "overplayed" 
and that donors need to encourage implementing partners to return to 
 
KHARTOUM 00001250  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
Abyei (reftel).  According to Gressly's assessment, effective 
deployment of joint integrated police units (JIPUs) will be an 
essential element for avoiding future conflict, and UNMIS should 
provide protection to facilitate voluntary returns. 
 
ASQUINO