VZCZCXRO6326
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1204/01 2211009
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 081009Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1552
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001204 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/SPG, S/E WILLIAMSON, DRL - RSPRING 
NSC FOR BPITTMAN AND CHUDSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM SOCI SU
SUBJECT: COMING SOON: THE NATIONAL ELECTORAL COMMISSION 
 
REF: A. KHARTOUM 1198 
 
-------- 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
¶1. (SBU) The Presidency is due to announce the nine members of the 
National Electoral Commission (NEC) within one week.  Opposition 
parties have provided the Presidency with a solid list of 29 
candidates, which one NCP Parliamentarian close to the regime calls 
"excellent."  Once established, the NEC's first order of business 
will be to tie up loose ends not addressed in the electoral law. 
UNMIS Electoral Affairs Officer Ray Kennedy has hinted that he may 
not hang around for the elections due to his frustration with the 
slow pace of establishing a legal framework to conduct the 
elections.  Should this happen, it could severely affect UNMIS' 
ability to effectively manage its mandate to provide technical 
electoral assistance to the GNU and the GoSS. Finally, an NCP member 
has hinted that the regime might hold presidential elections in 2009 
and hold legislative elections later. End Summary. 
 
--------------------- 
FORMATION OF THE NEC 
--------------------- 
¶2. (SBU) On 4 August, opposition parties jointly provided the GNU 
Presidency with a list of 29 potential candidates for the National 
Electoral Commission.  Most of those on the list are well-respected 
Sudanese intellectuals and professionals, known for their 
impartiality.  None of those on the list is NCP, so it is unlikely 
that the Presidency will choose all nine members from the list.  On 
7 August, poloff spoke with NCP heavyweight Ibrahim Ghandour, 
parliamentarian and president of the Sudan Workers Trade Union 
Federation, who said that he had just met with opposition parties 
with regard to the list.  It is an "excellent, excellent" list, said 
Ghandour, "and we will use it."  He pointed out that both of the 
National Constitutional Review Commission Co-Chairs, Abdulla Idris 
and Abel Alier, who landed on the opposition parties' list, would be 
admirable choices because of their experience in drafting the 
electoral law and their ability to adeptly seek input from and work 
with all parties. The electoral law states that the Presidency must 
form the NEC within one month of the passage of the law.  Legally, 
the Presidency has until 14 August to do this; however, Ghandour 
said that the Commission will likely be announced before that date. 
[Note:  Candidate Abdulla Idris is a close contact of US Embassy 
Khartoum, as are other candidates such as ex-National Democratic 
Alliance Secretary Faroug Abu Eissa and Afad University for Women 
Lecturer Blgees Badri.  End Note.] 
 
----------- 
LOOSE ENDS 
----------- 
¶3. (SBU) Although an official GNU-translated English version of the 
electoral law has not yet been released from the Ministry of 
Justice, UNMIS Chief Electoral Officer Ray Kennedy has been able to 
draw several conclusions from the law.  Notable are the loose ends 
in the text that the NEC must deal with by issuing rules and 
regulations on a variety of issues (reftel).  Chief among these is 
how registration will be conducted, as well as whether Southern 
Sudanese in the diaspora will be able to vote for the President of 
Southern Sudan (diaspora voting for the GNU President is provided 
for in the law), and how fractions of seats will be dealt with among 
the parties.  UNMIS is ready and willing to offer capacity building 
and technical assistance to the NEC when it is established.  After 
tying down loose ends, the Commission must immediately turn its 
attention to "districting" when census results are revealed 
(estimated December 2008 or January 2009).  Kennedy said there will 
be more than 1,100 single-member districts and it will take teams of 
four people working in each state for six months to clearly define 
the districts.  If census results are rejected by the GNU or the 
GoSS, Kennedy said it is not impossible to use voter registration to 
determine districting. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
UNMIS ELECTORAL CHIEF HINTS AT DEPARTURE 
----------------------------------------- 
¶4. (SBU) Kennedy has hinted on a few occasions that he may depart 
Sudan in November 2008 when his one-year contract expires, despite 
the fact that UNMIS expects him to extend for at least an additional 
year to carry out the organization's mandate to provide technical 
assistance to the GNU and the GoSS in the upcoming elections. 
Frustrated by the extremely slow GNU progress on putting in place a 
legal framework to conduct elections, as well as the lack of an 
interlocutor (the NEC) and a formal GNU invite for UNMIS to provide 
electoral assistance, Kennedy is tempted by the greener pastures of 
more senior-level UN positions elsewhere.  When asked what it would 
take for him to stay, he responded that the establishment of a 
capable and open NEC would be a good start. 
 
KHARTOUM 00001204  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
------------------------------------ 
HOLD PRESIDENTIAL, DELAY LEGISLATIVE 
------------------------------------- 
¶5. (SBU) According to Kennedy, prominent NCP figure Mohamed Ahmed 
Salim, head of the Political Parties Registrar, has indicated to 
UNMIS that the GNU might hold presidential elections first and 
separate from legislative elections.  Presidential elections will 
only require two ballots (one for the President of the GNU, the 
second for the President of the GoSS), and hence less preparation 
time, unlike legislative elections that will entail seven ballots in 
the North and ten in the South.  Furthermore, presidential elections 
can be held without districting, while legislative elections require 
border delimitation.  Kennedy said this would be one way for the GNU 
to manageably hold elections in 2009, even if only partially. [Note: 
 Kennedy did not indicate whether he agreed or disagreed with this 
approach.  End note.] 
 
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COMMENT 
-------- 
¶6. (SBU) Although passage of the electoral law was dreadfully slow, 
all signals point to the rapid establishment of an NEC now that the 
law is in place.  Opposition party input to the Commission is an 
extreme plus, and the opposition's suggested candidates appear to be 
well-qualified national figures.  Although there is no way to know 
how many of these candidates the Presidency will select, NCP 
discussion with the opposition on their list suggests the regime is 
truly looking for a variety of qualified individuals.  If Kennedy 
departs in the fall, it will be a major loss to UNMIS, which will 
struggle to find someone who can fill Kennedy's shoes rather quickly 
in order to carry out the UNMIS mandate of providing electoral 
assistance to the GNU and GoSS. 
 
FERNANDEZ