VZCZCXRO7294
PP RUEHPW
DE RUEHBUL #2249/01 2370611
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 240611Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5219
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002249 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG 
NSC FOR JWOOD 
OSD FOR SHIVERS 
CG CJTF-82, POLAD, JICCENT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF
SUBJECT: NEW ELECTION LAW UNLIKELY, BUT ELECTIONS STILL ON 
 
REF: KABUL 1193 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY.  After lingering on the National Assembly's 
Lower House agenda for weeks, a proposed election bill is 
unlikely to come to a vote in time to impact next year's 
presidential elections.  Nonetheless, future candidates and 
election experts agree that the political consensus and legal 
framework to conduct presidential and provincial council 
elections next year are in place.  The Independent Electoral 
Commission (IEC) remains committed to the current timeline, 
with voter registration beginning October 6 and voting day 
planned for August 2009. 
 
Draft Law Going Nowhere for Now 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2.    (SBU) The proposed election bill has been caught in the 
middle of a dispute over National Assembly seats reserved for 
Kuchi nomads elected country-wide (reftel).  Ethnic Pashtun 
MPs support the status quo while many non-Pashtuns advocate 
returning the 10 seats in question to electoral districts 
(currently each province serves as a multi-seat district 
depending on population) or distributing half the seats to 
non-Pashtun nomads.  The Lower House created a 20-member 
bipartisan commission to find a compromise last spring, but 
it has been unsuccessful.  The commission did not meet during 
the 
June-July legislative recess and many of its members on both 
sides are among the most hard-line opinion holders on the 
issue and have stated publicly that they will not support a 
compromise solution. 
 
¶3.    (SBU) Saleh Mohammad Regestani (Panjshir, Tajik), 
chairman of the Legislation Committee and a member of the 
bipartisan commission, said he does not expect the proposed 
election law bill to reach the house floor, even though 
parliament staff continue to place it on the agenda.  He said 
disagreements between the two sides remain unresolved and 
some MPs have threatened to break quorum if a version of the 
bill they disagree with reaches a vote.  Regestani himself 
has a reputation for antagonizing his opponents and 
suggesting "compromises" he knows the other side will not 
accept, thereby drawing out disputes such as this with 
Pashtun nationalists.  His committee has tried to punt the 
dispute to the IEC, which has declined to opine on political 
matters. 
 
¶4.    (SBU) Parliament's inaction effectively runs out the 
clock on making changes to election law.  According to the 
Afghan Constitution's Article 109, the National Assembly 
cannot amend election law during the last year of its 
legislative agenda.  Most interpret this to mean the year 
preceding the presidential election, currently set for August 
¶2009.  MP Kabir Ranjbar (Kabul, Pashtun), Government Affairs 
Committee chairman, said he thought a new election law could 
slip in a few weeks past the constitutional one-year 
deadline, as most officials were already overlooking the 
Constitution's mandate for a presidential election no later 
May 2009, but that the Kuchi seats issue was so divisive, no 
solution would be possible for several months. 
 
Other Options on the Table, but Status Quo Likely 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶5.    (SBU) Haji Ibrahim, brother and chief of staff to Lower 
House Speaker Yunus Qanooni, said the Lower House would keep 
the elections law on its agenda in the hopes that a 
compromise will emerge.  However, he and others believe more 
likely outcomes in the coming months are (in descending order 
of probability): 
 
-     Nothing will happen.  If parliament does not pass a new 
election law, the previous law will stand and the election 
will operate under those rules. 
 
-     President Karzai will issue a decree authorizing 
changes in the election law while MPs are in recess in 
December.  Although these changes would effectively change 
 
KABUL 00002249  002 OF 002 
 
 
the law within 12 months of an election, most accept the 
Constitution only forbids the National Assembly from changing 
the election law within the one year, not the president. 
 
-     Parliament will draft a scaled-down version of the 
election law and pass it within the next few months, putting 
off issues related to the Kuchi seats and the 2010 National 
Assembly elections until next year.  The practical result of 
this action would be ratifying the present law, as absent 
changes for the 2010 parliamentary elections, the current 
bill proposes no major changes for carrying out the 
presidential elections. 
 
¶6.    (SBU) Leaders of the opposition United Front coalition 
support a comprehensive election law, but also recognize it 
is most likely unattainable in the near-term.  Neither the 
United Front nor any other major faction in parliament has 
called for delaying next year's election.  Instead, the 
United Front is  setting its sights on more minor changes to 
the country's elections system in an effort to reduce what 
they see as President Karzai's influence over the process. 
One member of the United Front's executive committee close to 
former president and Jamiat party leader Burhanuddin Rabbani 
(Badakhshan, Tajik) said the United Front would demand the 
resignation of the IEC chairman and seek parliamentary input 
into his replacement.  Political and legal experts differ on 
whether the legislature has the authority to do so, but the 
United Front,s objective is more to register its concern 
that Karzai, as incumbent and candidate, should remain 
outside decisions on the electoral process that could 
introduce bias. 
 
Elections Will Go On 
-------------------- 
 
¶7.    (SBU) A new election law promised two possible 
benefits: solidifying a political consensus behind elections, 
and demonstrating that Afghan democratic institutions, 
particularly the legislature, are moving beyond the 
transitional phase.  The legal provisions of the 2005 law and 
the present bill are largely similar, and the many small 
suggested changes relate to constituencies and representation 
(like the vexing Kuchi issue), the role of parties, and 
anti-fraud measures.  Caught between ethnic rivalries and 
political positioning, the new law is unlikely to come up for 
a vote any time soon.  The easiest course of action for all 
sides will be to let the issue pass; Karzai's predilection 
for avoiding difficult decisions in favor of interim 
solutions and parliament's inability to bring controversial 
issues to a final vote mean elections under the current law 
will be the likely outcome.  Because opposition and incumbent 
presidential contenders are publicly declaring their 
candidacies, and the IEC and the legislature accept the 
proposed electoral calendar, the sought-for political 
consensus seems certain.  As for consolidating democratic 
institutions, the elections themselves are the most important 
signal of progress. 
WOOD