VZCZCXRO9122
RR RUEHPW
DE RUEHBUL #2127/01 2260150
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 130150Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5083
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 5203
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KABUL 002127 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, EB/TPP/ATP, PRM 
DEPT PASS USAID/ASIA BUREAU, AID/ANE, DCHA/FFP, DCHA/OFDA 
NSC FOR JWOOD 
OSD FOR SHIVERS 
CG CJTF-82, POLAD, JICCENT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAGR EAID PHUM PREF PGOV PREL PK AF
SUBJECT:  Afghanistan: Refugee, Internally Displaced, Deportee, and 
Vulnerable Populations in Kabul City and Nationwide 
 
Refs: (A) Kabul 4006; (B) Kabul 568 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Continued security concerns in rural Afghanistan, 
notably in Helmand Province, have prompted an increase in internally 
displaced persons (IDPs) seeking a safe haven in Kabul city.  Press 
reports indicate that families who had taken temporary shelter 
around Lashkar Gah and Kandahar in the south are moving to Kabul 
because of growing insecurity.  In fact, this segment of 
in-migration to Kabul is a small part of a larger influx of 
individuals and families driven by a number of factors, including 
economics, urbanization, and food scarcity.  In addition, almost 
29,000 of the 208,317 refugees returning to Afghanistan so far this 
year have settled in Kabul Province.  In many cases, USG programs 
provide the only assistance to these generally poor and marginalized 
populations. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Historically, USAID's Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster 
Assistance (USAID/OFDA) focuses on IDP issues both in Kabul and 
across Afghanistan, and the State Department's Bureau of Population, 
Refugees, and Migration (PRM) focuses on refugees in areas outside 
of Kabul.  As IDPs and refugees put pressure on Afghanistan's 
(almost non-existent) infrastructure and absorption capacity, these 
programs remain critical tools for humanitarian relief.  The 
information below sets forth the challenges and the programs 
designed to address them. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Background: "I am a (Pick One) Refugee/IDP/Deportee/Vulnerable" 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Recognition of the different beneficiary populations is key 
to understanding humanitarian issues in Afghanistan.  The media 
often confuses these groups but the distinctions are important, as 
different international legal protections, assistance programs, and 
funding resources often apply. 
 
--Refugee: a person who left Afghanistan due to a well-founded fear 
of persecution because of race, religion, nationality, political 
opinion, or membership in a particular social group. 
 
-- IDP: a person who fled his/her home or place of residence due to 
armed conflict, generalized violence, human-made, or natural 
disasters, but who never crossed an international border. 
 
-- Deportee: in the Afghan context, usually an undocumented economic 
migrant (typically a young, single man) who was deported from Iran. 
Pakistan also deports undocumented Afghans but on a much smaller 
scale. 
 
-- Vulnerable individual: any refugee, IDP, or deportee who is also 
an unaccompanied woman or minor, or who is sick, elderly, disabled, 
or needs immediate humanitarian assistance. 
 
¶4. (U) In Afghanistan, the definitions and legal status of these 
different categories of people frequently overlap and refugees 
returning from Pakistan to the southern provinces may then become 
IDPs as they flee the violence there.  This past winter, male 
deportees from Iran were deemed vulnerable due to the harsh weather 
and their dire lack of resources.  [Comment:  While these men are 
generally not considered vulnerable from a humanitarian perspective, 
being set adrift without a job or family support makes them very 
vulnerable from a security perspective.] 
 
------------------------------------------ 
Recent IDP and Refugee Movement Into Kabul 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for 
Refugees (UNHCR)in Kabul reports assisting 685 new IDP families 
recently displaced from Helmand and Logar provinces due to fighting. 
 However, migration to urban areas is not solely driven by 
insecurity.  UNHCR has also confirmed the arrival of a group of 50 
predominantly semi-nomadic Pashtun/Baloch families in the beginning 
of August.  Further relocation of additional Pashtun/Baloch families 
to Kabul is likely due to the emergence of community ties.  In 
addition, 14 percent of all refugees returning from Pakistan so far 
this year are settling in their places of origin in Kabul province. 
 
KABUL 00002127  002 OF 004 
 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Other major reasons for migration to urban areas include 
increased economic prospects, family unification, the overall 
worldwide trend towards growing urbanization, and increasing food 
insecurity.  Some returning refugees have also become adept at 
appealing for government or international community assistance and 
know that high visibility in an urban environment can attract more 
aid than relative obscurity in their provinces of origin. 
 
¶7. (SBU) In a larger context, the recent influx of IDPs that has 
gained media attention only represents about 2.5 days worth of 
in-migration into Kabul, which has been ongoing since early 2002. 
The rapid growth of Kabul is leading to a very large concentration 
of displaced persons with very few resources.  This can lead in turn 
to increased instability in the urban area, as well as challenges to 
the implementation of parts of the Afghanistan National Development 
Strategy (ANDS), such as the goal of expanding piped water to 50 
percent of Kabul households by 2013. 
 
------------------------------------ 
One In Five Migrants Settle In Kabul 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶8. (U) Between 2001 and 2008, an estimated 5.6 million people have 
returned to Afghanistan.  The population of Kabul area rapidly 
expanded during this period from approximately 1.5 million to an 
estimated 4.5 million people due to an influx of returning refugees, 
IDPs, economic migrants, and those fleeing conflict areas, as well 
as net natural growth of the Kabul population.  This tripling of 
population has been accompanied by a four-fold increase in developed 
urban land.  Between 70 and 80 percent of Kabul's population live in 
squalid conditions in unauthorized, informal areas.  Residential 
densities of two and sometimes three families per housing unit are 
the norm.  To date, few emergency-response agencies have addressed 
the humanitarian needs generated by the confluence of returnee, IDP, 
migrant, and resident vulnerable groups in Afghan urban areas. 
[Comment: Humanitarian organizations have largely focused their 
resources on rural areas and Afghanistan has seen minimal national 
and international investment in urban development assistance.] 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
Internal Displacement Continues But Hard To Measure 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶9. (U) UNHCR reports that most of the estimated 1.2 million IDPs 
displaced under the Taliban regime have returned home.  As of early 
2007, UNHCR estimated that 130,000 people in Afghanistan were 
protracted IDPs, displaced due to insecurity, drought, landlessness, 
and tribal conflict.  An estimated 29,000 people were displaced 
during 2007, primarily from Kandahar, Helmand, Uruzgan, and Zabul 
provinces in the south, and Herat and Badghis provinces in the west. 
 No precise tallies of the number of current IDPs exist but UNHCR 
estimates there are approximately 250,000 IDPs in Afghanistan. 
 
¶10. (U) Although displacements often occur following outbreaks of 
fighting, UNHCR noted that most IDPs displaced by fighting return to 
areas of origin once the situation stabilizes.  Approximately 21 
percent of all IDPs and refugee returnees to Afghanistan since 2002 
have settled in the Kabul and Bagrami districts of Kabul Province. 
Thus, more than one of every five migrants in Afghanistan has moved 
to just two of the country's 398 provincial districts, both of which 
are located within Kabul Municipality. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Urban Refugees Drive Up 2008 Repatriation Numbers 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Refugee returns to Afghanistan this year have crossed the 
milestone threshold of 200,000, reaching 208,317 as of August 10. 
Returns crested in May after the closure of Jalozai camp in 
Pakistan, but between 8,000 and 10,000 individuals a week are still 
returning.  Repatriation will likely slow in September, with UNHCR 
repatriation assistance ending October 31.  Returns from camps are 
lower than UNHCR's predictions but higher overall due to more 
urban-based refugees returning than expected (Refs A and B). 
Initial predictions anticipated returns from the planned closure of 
 
KABUL 00002127  003 OF 004 
 
 
Jungle Pir Alizai and Girdi Jungle camps (46,000 residents) but the 
camps are likely to remain open.  For logistical and security 
reasons, the government of Pakistan has chosen not to close these 
camps this year. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Refugee Returns Likely To Hit 250,000 in 2008 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) While slightly over half of refugees returning from 
Pakistan come from other camps in North Western Frontier Provinces, 
the other half come from urban areas with rising food and rent 
prices and high unemployment.  UNHCR Kabul now predicts repatriation 
to reach between 250,000 and 260,000 this year, barring an unlikely 
late-season closure of Jungle Pir Alizai and Girdi Jungle that would 
drive the numbers higher.  These scenarios are within UNHCR's 
worst-case contingency planning exercise (Ref B) but could severely 
strain international community resources.  The likelihood of a mass 
return from Pakistan being completed by December 2009 is improbable 
and not feasible, given over 2 million refugees in Pakistan hold 
Proof of Registration cards and close to 400,000 more are 
potentially eligible for refugee status.  The Government of Pakistan 
is reviewing its current three-year policy on returns and may be 
amenable to modifications contingent upon adequate support from 
UNHCR, UNDP, and the international community. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
U.S. Humanitarian Assistance Channeled Through International and 
Non-Governmental Organizations 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶13. (U) The USG supports returning refugees and IDPs in Afghanistan 
through contributions to international organizations such as UNHCR, 
which is mandated to provide refugee and, in some cases, IDP 
protection and assistance, and the International Committee of the 
Red Cross (ICRC).  The International Organization for Migration 
(IOM) provides humanitarian assistance to vulnerable migrants, 
including refugees and IDPs.  Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) 
such as CARE International and the International Rescue Committee 
(IRC), as well as smaller, more local NGOs, also implement refugee 
reintegration projects and emergency assistance activities for 
displaced families and communities. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
USAID Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) 
Assistance Programs 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶14. (U) In FY 2008, USAID/OFDA is currently supporting two 
assistance programs specifically targeting IDPs and vulnerable 
persons in Afghanistan, valued at nearly $14 million.  USAID/OFDA 
has provided more than $1 million through IOM to procure and 
distribute emergency relief supplies to address the needs of Afghans 
affected by the severe 2007/2008 winter.  To address emergency needs 
of extremely vulnerable individuals in Kabul Municipality, 
USAID/OFDA is supporting the second phase of the Kabul Area Shelter 
and Settlements program (KASS-2), valued at $12.9 million. 
Implemented by three NGOs (CARE, CHF, and ACTED), the program will 
provide shelter assistance to more than 60,000 returnees, IDPs, and 
other vulnerable Kabul residents.  The KASS-2 program will also 
address associated water, sanitation, hygiene, and livelihoods needs 
for nearly 100,000 other residents. 
 
¶15. (U) Since 2001, USAID/OFDA has provided more than $183.8 million 
in humanitarian assistance programs addressing needs of returning 
populations, IDPs, and other vulnerable or drought-affected rural 
populations.  Activities have included the provision of emergency 
relief supplies; support for food and agricultural needs; 
improvements in shelter and water, sanitation, and hygiene 
infrastructure; improved coordination and information-sharing among 
humanitarian agencies; and the establishment of livelihoods 
opportunities and income generation projects.  USAID/OFDA assistance 
to Afghanistan is in addition to the Mission's emergency food aid 
efforts and  other agricultural programs that also include 
vulnerable populations. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
KABUL 00002127  004 OF 004 
 
 
State Department Bureau of Populations, Refugees, and Migration 
(PRM) Assistance Programs 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶16. (SBU) Since 2002, PRM has spent approximately $488 million 
helping over five million returning Afghan refugees reintegrate into 
their homeland.  PRM funds approximately 25 percent of UNHCR's 
Afghanistan program, which covers support in Afghanistan, Pakistan, 
and Iran.  To date in FY 2008, PRM has contributed $20.3 million to 
UNHCR for its Afghan programs and $22 million to the ICRC for the 
South Asia region, a portion of which would go to its Afghan 
program.  PRM has also programmed $10.4 million for NGO projects to 
provide reintegration support within Afghanistan and basic services 
to refugees and host communities in Pakistan.  Additional support is 
planned for UNHCR and a number of NGOs before the end of FY 2008. 
 
¶17. (SBU) PRM-funded projects focus on shelter, water and 
sanitation, primary and community education, basic and maternal 
health, and livelihoods programs.  One new initiative is the Afghan 
government's Land Allocation Scheme (LAS), where land is set aside 
for returning refugees, and donors fund shelter and community 
service projects to turn these areas into viable communities.  While 
50 percent of PRM's NGO project beneficiaries must be refugees, all 
activities are designed on community-based reintegration models so 
that project benefits flow to the rest of the community, including 
IDPs, vulnerable individuals, and families who never left their 
homes and are now hosting newly returned refugees and IDPs. 
 
¶18. (SBU) The historically fluid migration patterns within 
Afghanistan and to its neighboring countries, aggravated by 30 years 
of war and economic ruin, continue to present numerous humanitarian 
challenges.  As Afghanistan's ability to absorb new returnees and 
IDPs dwindles, USG programs are  some of the positive forces for 
change in Kabul city and rural areas in both Afghanistan and 
Pakistan. 
 
¶19.  (U) This cable has been cleared by Embassy Islamabad. 
 
WOOD