VZCZCXRO0185
RR RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #1107/01 2410220
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 280220Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0952
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0153

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001107 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PREL KMDR KPAO TI
SUBJECT: GEORGIA ON THEIR MIND: TAJIK MEDIA REACTS CAUTIOUSLY TO 
ABKHAZIA AND SOUTH OSSETIA 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: The Tajik media, in its coverage of Russian actions 
in Georgia, has mainly copied Russian media reports, or offered 
local opinion on the meaning of the dispute for Central Asia.  As 
could be expected, it has not criticized Russia, and has instead 
focused heavily on the role of the United States and multilateral 
organizations such as the Commonwealth of Independent States in the 
dispute.  Television news has either played down the incident or 
broadcast one-sided reporting by Russian stations.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) No Tajik newspaper has a correspondent in Georgia, so all 
reporting from Georgia consisted of reprints directly from Russian 
newspapers.  As the conflict wore on, the spot reporting dropped 
from about 90% to 50% of local coverage, with the rest of 
Georgia-related articles devoted to local analysis and speculation 
on how the dispute would affect Tajikistan and the region in 
general. 
 
JUST THIS SWEET OLD COLD WAR SONG 
 
¶3. (U) Newspapers relied heavily on interviews and roundtables with 
local pundits, including members of the government.  The experts 
overwhelmingly cited the United States' influence in Georgia as a 
cause of the conflict. Many pointed to evidence of a "new cold war" 
between Russia and the United States, and cited the proposed missile 
defense shield in Europe and the expansion of NATO to include 
Georgia and Ukraine as catalysts for the conflict.  One former Radio 
Free Liberty/Radio Europe reporter wrote that the conflict was a 
"dream" of the "imperialistic" United States, but cautioned that 
Russia might attack a Central Asian country in a similar fashion. 
 
 
¶4. (U) Russian opinion dominated the media, particularly television 
and radio, which carried statements by Russia's United Nations 
Ambassador live.  Local news continued to devote most of its airtime 
to the doings of President Rahmon, with occasional Russian reports 
from Georgia.  The Tajik edition of Argumenti I Fakti featured a 
front page photo illustration of President Sakashvilli nursing at 
the breast of Condoleezza Rice - this in a society where baring your 
knees is risque. 
 
OTHER ARMS REACH OUT TO ME... 
 
¶5. (U) On the eve of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) 
summit in Dushanbe, many journalists and commentators predicted that 
the Georgia situation would change the tone of the organization's 
discussions, and some urged SCO countries to express their support 
for Russia's actions during the summit. 
 
¶6. (U) Commentators made much of Georgia's withdrawal from the 
Commonwealth of Independent States, which inspired a debate as to 
the organization's relevance.  Some editorialists blamed the 
Commonwealth for not mediating the dispute earlier, but many 
commentators said that this proved its worthlessness as a mechanism 
for addressing disputes between member states.  Newspapers argued 
that Russia now would pressure former CIS states to decide whether 
"they are with Russia or with the United States." 
 
¶7. (SBU) Possibly in response to events in Georgia, the Government 
of Tajikistan made a point of showing SCO members that it had other 
friends too.  In the week before the summit the Government quickly 
agreed to hold two signing ceremonies for USG grant assistance in 
the areas of border security and energy resource development.  The 
Minister of Foreign Affairs personally attended one ceremony, 
offering champagne (and strong press coverage) to celebrate the 
event.  The other ceremony also featured television coverage and 
Ministerial attendance. 
 
...BUT THE ROAD LEADS BACK TO YOU 
 
 
¶7. (U) While most reports stopped short of expressing full support 
Q7. (U) While most reports stopped short of expressing full support 
for Russia's actions, many commentators pointed to Tajikistan's 
historical and contemporary ties to Russia as too important to 
sacrifice in an ideological debate.  One Parliamentarian told a 
reporter that former Soviet republics should not only accept 
Russia's assistance, but should actively promote and defend Russia's 
interests in tough situations.  Several commentators said that 
Tajikistan would face a "choice" between Russia and the United 
States, and they were unanimous in their opinion that Russia was the 
only choice. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment: The Tajik media interpret Georgia's fate as a 
warning to other former Soviet states who get too close to the 
United States.  With the SCO summit looming over Dushanbe, the 
events in Abkhazia and South Ossetia have inspired speculation in 
the press about the "right" path for Tajikistan and its neighbors - 
that is, a path that will appease Russia, but leave some room for 
maneuver.  End comment. 
 
 
DUSHANBE 00001107  002 OF 002 
 
 
JACOBSON