VZCZCXRO1563
RR RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHCG #0289/01 2420929
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 290929Z AUG 08
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1820
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 3250
RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000289 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN
 
SUBJECT: FILM STAR SHAKES UP ANDHRA PRADESH POLITICS 
 
REF: CHENNAI 081 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  After years of speculation about his intentions, 
Telugu film superstar Chiranjeevi finally formed a political party, 
which he dubbed the "Praja Rajayam" (People's Party).  Chiranjeevi, 
who aspires to be the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, unveiled the 
party's name at a mammoth rally on August 26 before more than 
400,000 supporters.  Since the announcement, a significant number of 
politicians have defected from other parties, especially the Telugu 
Desam Party, to join Chiranjeevi and talk has already begun about 
potential political alliances for Praja Rajayam.  Although it is too 
early to tell precisely what impact Praja Rajayam will have on the 
upcoming elections, it is clear that Chiranjeevi will shake things 
up in the state.  The Bharatiya Janata Party, which is in the 
political wilderness in Andhra Pradesh, stands the best chance of 
benefiting from the new developments there.  End summary. 
 
Chiranjeevi finally decides to form party 
---------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Chiranjeevi (actual name Konidella Sivasankara Varaprasad) 
is a long-time superstar in the Andhra Pradesh-based Telugu language 
film industry (reftel).  Rumors that the film star would enter 
politics have surfaced periodically for years.  The speculation 
intensified in 2007 when people close to Chiranjeevi, including his 
brother, confirmed that the actor was considering forming a 
political party.  By early 2008 analysts considered his entry into 
Andhra Pradesh politics a foregone conclusion.  The actor and his 
surrogates, for their part, kept the state in suspense, hinting at 
various dates that came and went without an announcement.  On August 
17, the actor finally and unequivocally said he was forming his own 
party, the name of which he planned to announce at an August 26 
rally. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Chiranjeevi unveiled the name of his new party: "Praja 
Rajayam" (Telugu for "People's Party") at a huge rally in Tirupati, 
a famous temple town in southern Andhra Pradesh.  A journalist that 
went to the event told post that he estimated that at least 400,000 
people attended the rally.  Media reports noted that there were 18 
special trains and more than 1,500 buses from locations throughout 
the state to help transport Chiranjeevi supporters to Tirupati.  The 
journalist contact initially cautioned against reading too much into 
the crowd size, saying that "in Andhra Pradesh huge crowds at 
political rallies are common."  He added that "about half" of the 
attendees were "a mobilized crowd," meaning that Chiranjeevi's party 
had gathered supporters from around the state and made arrangements 
to get them to the site.  But, after some discussion, he 
acknowledged that the rally was "an impressive start" for Praja 
Rajayam. 
 
Defections shows Chiranjeevi's appeal 
---------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The days between the August 17 announcement and the August 
26 rally saw a number of politicians leave other parties to join 
Praja Rajayam.  The defectors came from a wide range of parties, 
including the ruling Congress party, opposition Telugu Desam Party 
(TDP), the Communist Party of India, and the Bharatiya Janata Party. 
 The highest profile defector was Hariram Jogaiah, a sitting 
Congress party Member of Parliament.  Jogaiah's resignation did not 
come as a surprise as he had previously committed to doing so in the 
event that Chiranjeevi -- who hails from the same Kapu caste as 
Jogaiah -- entered politics.  Media reports, however, noted that the 
TDP suffered the largest number of defections.  Our journalist 
contact noted that many of the defectors are out of office right 
now.  As such, he said, they have less to risk by joining a new 
party. 
 
Alliance guessing game commences 
---------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Speculation about possible alliances began the moment 
Chiranjeevi announced his plans.  Newspapers ran stories linking 
Chiranjeevi's proposed party to virtually every party in Andhra 
Pradesh except Congress and the Telugu Desam.  Chiranjeevi's phone 
call to BJP leader LK Advani fueled speculation that he was planning 
to join with the BJP, though both the BJP and Chiranjeevi denied 
that the phone call was a first step towards an alliance.  At the 
August 26 rally, Chiranjeevi said that Praja Rajayam would be a 
"secular" party, which some reporters took as an indication that he 
would avoid pairing with the BJP.  The media contact who had 
attended the August 26 rally said that any talk of a BJP-Praja 
Rajayam alliance was "speculation," but acknowledged that joining 
with BJP would benefit Chiranjeevi by associating him with the BJP's 
prime ministerial candidate.  Several media outlets also guessed 
that Chiranjeevi will join forces with the Telangana Rashtra Samiti 
(TRS).  Chiranjeevi suggested that he would support a separate 
Telangana state in his August 26 speech, heightening the speculation 
of a potential TRS-Praja Rajayam alliance. 
 
CHENNAI 00000289  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The size of the Tirupati rally and the instant speculation 
about potential alliances demonstrate that Praja Rajayam has already 
made an impact on Andhra Pradesh politics.  But both the journalist 
and another analyst cautioned against reading too much into things 
at this point.  The journalist said that although Chiranjeevi is a 
very popular actor, "he is by no means" NT Rama Rao, the Telugu 
actor who swept to power in Andhra Pradesh in 1982 after forming the 
Telugu Desam Party.  The other analyst was quite dismissive, saying 
that "the overhyped entry into politics by a fading star" is 
unlikely to dramatically change the face of the state's politics. 
On the other hand, T. Devender Goud, who left the TDP and recently 
formed his own party -- the Nava Telangana Praja Party -- to 
advocate for Telangana statehood, told us that Chiranjeevi looks to 
be "a force to be reckoned with." 
 
Comment: Can Chiranjeevi turn his 
big splash into political tidal wave? 
---------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Comment:  Chiranjeevi has set the lofty goal of becoming 
Andhra Pradesh's next Chief Minister.  With less than a year before 
the state's elections, Chiranjeevi will need to generate a tidal 
wave of support to overturn the existing Congress/TDP-dominated 
order.  Congress Chief Minister YSR Reddy and TDP leader Chandrababu 
Naidu both have big political egos; it is virtually unimaginable 
that either would sublimate his ambitions to join with Chiranjeevi. 
As such, the actor will need to cobble together an alliance from the 
motley political remnants, which includes the two pro-Telangana 
parties, the left parties, BJP, and the fledgling Andhra Pradesh 
branch of Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party.  It is far too early to 
tell whether any combination of these parties could get Chiranjeevi 
over the top of Congress and the TDP, but he has made a very 
promising debut.  Even the long time it took for Chiranjeevi to 
decide, which some saw as a sign of the actor's indecisiveness, now 
looks like a deft effort to whip up enthusiasm among his potential 
supporters.   Notwithstanding the cautionary notes some of our 
contacts expressed about Chiranjeevi and Praja Rajayam, we think the 
new party is likely to shake up Andhra Pradesh's political order. 
 
Comment:  An opportunity for the BJP?  Or Mayawati? 
---------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Comment continued:  In terms of national politics, even 
though Chiranjeevi said Praja Rajayam will be a "secular" party, BJP 
strategists are probably happiest to see the new party in Andhra 
Pradesh.  The BJP's enthusiasm has nothing to do with ideology, but 
rather process of elimination and pure political calculus.  With 
Chiranjeevi focused on the Chief Ministership, he is unlikely to 
partner with Congress or TDP.  Nonetheless, he needs to associate 
his party with a national Prime Ministerial candidate to be viable 
in the parliamentary elections.  Partnering with BJP, which is 
relatively weak force in Andhra Pradesh, could be a win-win 
situation.  Chiranjeevi would have Andhra Pradesh's BJP voters 
supporting him for Chief Minister, and Praja Rajayam parliamentary 
candidates would stand a better chance running as part of the 
BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).  The NDA, in turn, could 
potentially take away some seats in Andhra Pradesh from the 
Congress.  So for now the talk centers on a potential BJP/Praja 
Rajayam alliance.  But the elections are still months away and the 
very same considerations that compel an alliance with BJP could be 
equally advanced in favor of Praja Rajayam linking up with 
Mayawati's BSP.  End comment. 
 
SIMKIN