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FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2299
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
INFO RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 2613
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 6511
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 8370
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0959
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 0554
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 BRASILIA 001122 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
ENERGY DEPARTMENT FOR ANDY BECK, BEN GETTO AND GARY WARD 
DEPT FOR MATT ROONEY, THOMAS HASTINGS, FAITH CORNEILLE, DEPT ALSO 
FOR MATT MCMANUS, GREG MANUAL, DAVID SCHNEIR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL ENRG EINV SENV KSCA BR IN
SUBJECT: EXPANDING THE ENERGY REALTIONSHIP WITH BRAZIL: KUPFER 
VISIT 
 
REF: A) Brasilia 910, B) Rio 138, C) Rio 135 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Acting Deputy Secretary of Energy Jeffery Kupfer 
and his delegation visited Brazil August 4 - 7.  They met with a 
wide variety of private sector and government officials to discuss a 
broad range of energy issues.  In Rio on August 4, Kupfer discussed 
primarily oil issues, in Brasilia on August 5 - 6, he explored 
options for bilateral cooperation and international issues, and on 
August 6 in Sao Paulo he focused primarily on developments in the 
biofuels sector.  As a result of the trip, the bilateral energy 
relationship is primed to expand beyond biofuels cooperation to a 
broader, more developed relationship that will benefit both nations' 
quests for energy security.  END SUMMARY 
 
¶2.  (U) THE PROGRAM:  A/DS Kupfer, along with Senior Advisor Ben 
Getto, Director of Public Affairs Andy Beck, Acting DOE Assistant 
Secretary for Fossil Energy Jim Slutz (through Brasilia), and DOE 
international program staff, Carolyn Gay and Rhia Davis, visited 
Brazil August 4 - 7 to meet with a variety of private sector and 
government officials. In Rio, Kupfer visited the Petrobras research 
center CENPES to focus on biofuels and emissions research.  He later 
met with Petrobras President Gabrielli, saw the head of the 
petroleum regulatory agency (ANP) Haroldo Lima, and had a dinner 
meeting with representatives of U.S. oil and gas industry.  He also 
heard a variety of perspectives on energy at a roundtable with 
independent analysts, the head of long term planning for the 
government, and other industry representatives.  In Brasilia on 
August 5, Kupfer had a luncheon meeting with a group of high level 
government representatives with interests in energy affairs, hosted 
by Minister of Mines and Energy (MME) Edison Lobao.  This was 
followed by a somewhat smaller meeting at MME and a one on one 
meeting with the Minister.  The next day he met with Ambassador 
Evarton Vargas at the Ministry of External Relations (MRE) to 
summarize his trip thus far and discuss bilateral cooperation and 
international energy agendas.  Kupfer then proceeded to Sao Paulo 
where he held two roundtables on biofuels: one on trends in the 
biofuels sector, the other on research and development 
opportunities.  Kupfer's visit received good press coverage; the 
result of an exclusive interview with O Globo, a press conference 
with Minister Lobao with a joint statement issued by Minister Lobao 
and Acting Deputy Secretary Kupfer, and a roundtable with 
international wire services. 
 
TALKING OIL - PRE-SALT RESTRUCTURING AND OPPORTUNITIES 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Discussing oil writ large and the bilateral context, MRE's 
Vargas urged the USG to look at the vast new off-shore oil 
discoveries (Note: over the course of the past year, Brazil has 
announced several discoveries of substantial reserves located in the 
pre-salt layer in the Santos Basin) from a political view, not just 
commercial.  He underscored that Brazil had no intention of 
"becoming a Venezuela, totally dependent on oil."  Kupfer 
acknowledged the GOB has to work through the issues associated with 
the new discoveries, but encouraged that clarity be provided to the 
global markets when practicable. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Haroldo Lima, Director-General of the National Petroleum 
Agency (ANP), assured A/DS Kupfer that Brazil would continue to have 
an efficient and transparent process for industry to seek new 
exploration and production opportunities.  While the national debate 
continues on how to regulate the pre-salt area (REFTELS), ANP is 
committed to ensuring a transparent process with clear rules that 
are uniformly applied, said Lima.  He described with pride Brazil's 
previous nine bid lease auctions and explained that ANP is preparing 
for the tenth bid round sometime in 2009.  The tenth round will not 
have pre-salt blocks for bid, but will have many other potentially 
lucrative off-shore and on-shore blocks.  In particular, ANP wants 
to encourage the involvement of small and medium size companies and 
hopes to raise the profile of opportunities in Brazil's marginal and 
on-shore reserves.  DOE Acting Assistant Secretary for Fossil Energy 
Jim Slutz agreed to follow-up with ANP on how to better promote 
opportunities for small and medium sized U.S. companies in Brazil. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) MME Minister Lobao told Kupfer that auctions for all 
pre-salt reserves had been suspended for the near term, because "we 
don't know what we're looking at in pre-salt yet." Lobao went on to 
confirm Lima's earlier comments about the upcoming tenth round and 
expressed a similar interest in attracting small and medium sized 
 
BRASILIA 00001122  002 OF 006 
 
 
companies.  He also unequivocally stated that no pre-existing, fully 
executed contract will be affected by the restructuring plans, 
although noted some potential for changes to contracts from the last 
bid round that are not yet fully executed.  Later in a private 
meeting with Kupfer, Lobao shared his plans to recommend the 
formation of a national company to hold the rights of the pre-salt 
reserves under a production sharing agreement structure. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Representatives of the U.S. oil and gas industry also 
suggested to Kupfer that they would benefit from a larger time 
window between the release of information from ANP and the deadline 
for submitting bids for bid rounds. Lobao responded to Kupfer's 
question on this topic the next day by saying that he would be 
willing to talk to ANP's Haroldo Lima to see if it was possible to 
grant broader time intervals, noting that the more bidders these 
auctions are able to attract, the better. 
 
¶7. (SBU) U.S. industry also mentioned delays in environmental 
licensing due to environmental regulator IBAMA's policy constraints; 
however, they expressed cautious optimism at the stated plans of 
newly appointed Minister of Environment, Carlos Minc, to increase 
IBAMA's efficiency and cut licensing time in half. (Note: despite 
what some see as intractable systemic issues such as the fact that 
employees can be held criminally liable for problems associated with 
projects for which they grant licenses, IBAMA has quickly issued 
licenses for other major energy projects, such as the Rio Madeira 
hydro electric projects, since Minc's arrival in May.) 
 
WHAT'S NEXT FOR PETROBRAS AND INDUSTRY? 
--------------------------------------- 
¶8.  (SBU)  When asked to forecast supply over the next twenty years, 
Petrobras' Gabrielli responded that he didn't see any big changes in 
the near term.  He noted transportation limitations in Russia, 
geological constraints for growth in the Middle East, time 
requirements to ramp-up offshore and oil sands production in Brazil 
and Canada, a general decline in Mexico, Venezuela, Norway and 
Nigeria, and tight refining capacity globally.  Despite enhanced 
recovery techniques, Gabrielli does not foresee any significant 
impact on production and supply.  He also does not foresee any big 
change on the demand side. He forecasts a generally tight market, 
with supply and demand each growing at 1.8 to two percent over the 
next five years. Beyond 2012, he predicts that Russia will build the 
necessary infrastructure and Canada and Brazil will increase 
production as new projects come online. He also noted that the use 
of renewables and flex-fuel technology will need to increase. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Petrobras President Gabrielli noted the global exploration 
bottleneck for equipment, but said that Petrobras is well positioned 
due to its aggressive equipment procurement strategy.  It has 27 new 
rigs under contract for delivery over the next five years.  Another 
28 new rigs will be built in Brazil from 2013-17.  This supply is 
enough to cover current operation plus potential new discoveries in 
the Santos Basin, Gabrielli said, and the size of the orders is 
comparable to expenditures under the U.S. Marshall Plan.  U.S. and 
other international oil companies will be stretched thin in Brazil, 
but U.S. service providers are well positioned, he added. 
Specifically, he mentioned opportunities for U.S. firms for shipyard 
services, flexible rise plants, compressors, and the development of 
detail engineering offices. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Petrobras is in the process of revising its international 
strategy to focus on domestic opportunities in the wake of the 
Santos Basin pre-salt discoveries, Gabrielli explained to A/DS 
Kupfer.  However, the United States will remain an important part of 
the company's operations as USD 4 billion, or one-third of the 
company's planned investments abroad, will be invested over the next 
five years into the 300-plus blocks that Petrobas has in the Gulf of 
Mexico.  Worldwide, Petrobras sees employee expertise and talent as 
a limitation on how extended it can be internationally. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Tangential to oil developments, Gabrielli said there were 
logistical constraints in piping the associated natural gas to be 
produced from the new pre-salt discoveries from 300 kilometers (km) 
offshore (existing pipeline infrastructure only reaches 150 km 
offshore where production currently takes place). Petrobras is 
considering floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) technology to be 
able to transport the gas inland or to export it.  LNG is 
advantageous since Petrobras doesn't need long-term contracts for 
LNG supply and can rely on purchasing spot cargos, as Brazil's peak 
 
BRASILIA 00001122  003 OF 006 
 
 
season for LNG use is opposite that of North America and is only 
dispatched when dry conditions affect the supply of hydropower to 
Brazil. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Downstream, Petrobras plans to add four new greenfield 
refineries to 2016, increasing refining capacity by 1.3 million 
barrels per day, build two large ethanol pipelines to move interior 
ethanol production to the ports of Sao Sebastiao and Paranagua for 
export, and build 72 tankers, all made in Brazil. 
 
¶13. (SBU) Finally, Gabrielli highlighted the importance of the 
Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum and of the development of 
sequestration technology. He mentioned the possibility of developing 
new technology for the Tupi field to inject CO2 to increase 
production. 
 
COOPERATION OPPORTUNITIES 
------------------------- 
 
¶14.  (SBU) During a luncheon meeting with Minister Lobao, his Deputy 
and all of his undersecretaries, as well as representatives from the 
Ministry of External Relations (MRE) and Ministry of the 
Environment, each of the attendees took a turn offering his opinion 
as to what might make fruitful areas for bilateral cooperation.  In 
general, the Deputy Secretary responded that these were all issues 
the USG spends a great deal of time thinking about as well and there 
might well be some natural areas of cooperation. 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Marcio Zimmermann, MME's Deputy Secretary equivalent, 
emphasized several areas of interest that were later echoed by 
others.  He said that cellulosic ethanol is a good area for 
collaboration, as are the alternative technologies of solar, wind, 
and thermal, since these are areas where the U.S. is fairly 
developed and Brazil is just revisiting, including by rejoining the 
IAEA group on alternative technologies since Minister Lobao took 
office.  Highlighting Brazil's intention to build 4 - 6 new nuclear 
reactors by 2030, Zimmermann suggested that civil nuclear programs 
might be another possibility for cooperation.  He also offered that 
large-scale transmission was an area in which Brazil might have some 
expertise to share.  The president of Electrobras, Jose Antonio 
Muniz Lopes, echoed the importance of many of these items and added 
energy conservation to the list. The MME Undersecretary for 
Strategic Planning, Altino Ventura Filho, also cited carbon capture 
and gasification of coal as ripe for cooperation. 
 
¶16.  (SBU) Rolando Schluck, MME Undersecretary for Electrification, 
suggested that the MOU of 2003 needs to be reactivated to 
incorporate these possibilities for cooperation.  He added to the 
list the monitoring of the safety of the energy supply as well as 
technologies of decentralized generation due to the challenge of the 
many far flung secluded regions in Brazil.  Paulo Roberto Costa, 
Director of Supply at Petrobras, discussed the ongoing cooperation 
with Japanese investor Mitsui and a Utah company in oil from shale 
as well as the need for U.S. commercial involvement in the 
development of oil infrastructure such as refineries.  Claudio 
Scliar, MME Undersecretary of Mines and Geology, pointed out that 
there has been ongoing cooperation in the coal area and that the 
1997 Implementing Agreement for Cooperation on Energy Technology was 
important to renew.  He also stressed the importance of identifying 
some concrete items for collaboration and setting up corresponding 
working groups.  During a meeting the next day, MRE's Vargas 
proposed that the 1997 Implementing Agreement be renewed.  Kupfer 
said that the USG did not need the Implementing Agreement to 
cooperate with Brazil.  However, if the GOB needed the renewal then 
"we could go forward on it." 
 
¶17.  (SBU) Minister Lobao summarized that there are many 
opportunities for us to pursue jointly and stressed that after 
Brazil's past experience with energy rationing, energy security is 
very important to the Brazilians.  A/DS Kupfer agreed, saying we 
have the same concerns and deepening the relationship makes sense. 
He suggested that concrete deliverables be identified and suggested 
that we develop a mechanism to follow up.  In the private meeting 
that followed, Kupfer invited Lobao to Washington and Lobao 
responded eagerly, ready to schedule a date, to which Kupfer replied 
that he would get back to him with specific timing after the visit. 
(Note: the Ambassador also passed a similar invitation from Commerce 
Secretary Gutierrez for a possible September visit.) 
 
 
BRASILIA 00001122  004 OF 006 
 
 
¶18.  (SBU) The suggestions offered during the luncheon and the 
follow up meeting comport with the Rio's energy experts' roundtable 
during which participants identified solar and wind technology and 
energy efficiency technology as good opportunities for U.S. 
companies in Brazil. They also highlighted the need to develop 
value-added industries, such as petrochemicals, around Brazil's 
existing energy-sector operations. 
 
INTERNATIONAL INTERESTS 
------------------------ 
 
¶19.  (SBU) GNEP - During the meeting with Lobao, Kupfer also pressed 
for Brazil to become a full member of the Global Nuclear Energy 
Partnership (GNEP), (Note: Brazil is currently an observer).  Lobao 
responded that he would consult with MRE and send a response via the 
Embassy.  Privately, Kupfer told Lobao that GNEP membership would 
not require giving up any sovereign rights, to which Lobao replied 
that the GOB does not plan to have nuclear weapons ever - now or in 
the future.  In a later conversation with MRE U/S Everton Vargas, 
MRE's Chief of the Department of International Organizations Carlos 
Duarte said the GOB has two major concerns:  (1) possibly curtailing 
the right to enrichment; and (2) possibly interfering with the 
international nuclear fuel market, but noted GOB agencies are 
meeting to consider GNEP membership.  Kupfer pointed out that other 
uranium exporters with similar concerns had joined GNEP, including 
Canada.  Duarte indicated a willingness to consider Amb. Sobel's 
suggestion that DOE send an expert to Brazil to meet with the 
appropriate officials to explain better how GNEP operates. 
¶20.  (SBU) Kupfer thanked Vargas for Brazil's supportive stance on 
India and nuclear energy.  Vargas requested that the USG provide his 
staff, as soon as possible, a draft of the proposal on India to the 
Nuclear Suppliers Group.  He added that he recently met with senior 
Indian officials and told them that Brazil wanted to help them on 
this issue. 
 
¶21.  (SBU) Kupfer also raised the G-8 International Partnership on 
Energy Efficiency Cooperation with Lobao and later with Vargas. 
Lobao was noncommittal.  Vargas explained that Brazil was 
interested, but miffed at not being invited to its launching in 
Japan in July.  Until it received a formal invitation to join from 
the G-8 Presidency, Brazil remains "agnostic."  Kupfer stressed that 
this initiative is just getting started and we would welcome 
Brazil's involvement on the ground floor.  Kupfer noted Brazil's 
expertise in the efficiency arena and explained that Brazil could 
help "put meat on the bones" of this important international 
initiative. 
 
BIOFUELS - COMMODITY AND FUTURES MARKETS NEEDED 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶22. (SBU) MRE's Vargas said Brazil is interested in research on 
second generation biofuels, but the costs are still too high with 
little additional benefits to sugar cane.  Thus, he urged the USG to 
work on making ethanol an international commodity:  a product traded 
on the Chicago and other commodity markets.  At the energy experts 
roundtable in Rio, Adilson de Oliveira (Institute of Economics) and 
Alvaro Teixeira (Brazilian Institute on Petroleum, Gas and 
Biofuels-IBP) concurred that ethanol should be an international 
commodity and that the U.S. and Brazil should work together towards 
that goal.  In particular, they mentioned the need for increased 
market access both in the context of Doha negotiations and U.S. 
tariff and non-tariff barriers.  More importantly, global production 
capacity needs to be increased, said Teixeira.  He explained that 
Brazil wants to help developing countries in Africa, Central America 
and Asia to become ethanol producers.  Increased U.S.-Brazil 
cooperation at the technical level will be necessary to achieve the 
necessary scientific breakthrough on second generation ethanol. 
 
¶23.  (SBU) In a roundtable discussion at the Sao Paulo American 
Chamber of Commerce (AmCham), participants were largely pessimistic 
about the short-term prospects for the commoditization of ethanol 
although recent shipments by the Brazilian company COSAN, one of the 
world's leading ethanol producers, of ethanol are already happening 
for manufacture of E-10 in Saudi Arabia.  They criticized the U.S. 
tariff on foreign ethanol as did UNICA's (Brazilian Sugarcane 
Industry Association) President Marcos Jank at a small reception at 
the Consul General's residence when he expressed his conviction that 
the Brazilian government will proceed with a WTO case against the 
U.S. ethanol program, and noted that UNICA would be supportive of 
 
BRASILIA 00001122  005 OF 006 
 
 
the GOB case.    The Sao Paulo Amcham business leaders noted however 
that a major impediment was also the US corn ethanol industry not 
being a more active/supportive international player to increase use 
of ethanol worldwide.  Joel Velasco of UNICA noted that the 
prospects for developing ethanol industries in Central America and 
the Caribbean is complicated by domestic subsidies and international 
tariffs that make it more profitable to export sugar. 
 
¶24.  (SBU) COSAN representatives noted that ethanol is still a 
"political" commodity, making it difficult to predict the market. 
Participants generally agreed that the existence of a more 
predictable and robust market would allow producers to plan ahead 
for capital-intensive projects. It was suggested that an effort be 
made to bring venture capitalists to the table in discussing the 
future of the ethanol industry and that stakeholders work to create 
a fund to provide for public education on the benefits of ethanol 
production and use. 
 
¶25.  (SBU) Sao Paulo's AmCham industry leaders also emphasized the 
need to create a viable futures market and to expedite the 
standardization of contracts and specifications.  The inability of 
investors to hedge themselves has reduced the availability of market 
liquidity, according to Joseph Tutundjian (Chairman of AmCham's 
Biofuels Task Force and head of the Brazilian firm Winner Comercio 
International).  This, combined with a lack of global ethanol 
standards and specifications, has limited the growth of the 
international ethanol market.  Tutundjian emphasized the need to 
negotiate a new standard contract for ethanol trading.  The 
participants generally agreed that Brazil's futures and commodities 
market (BM&F) did not have a sufficiently robust or useful market 
for trading ethanol and that on-going negotiations between the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and BM&F to agree to a standard contract 
were advancing slower than anticipated. 
 
BIOFUELS - R&D 
-------------- 
 
¶26.  (SBU) Vargas urged the development of one or two concrete 
projects to show that the MOU produced action.  He noted that the 
Brazilian private sector was very interested in seeing results from 
this cooperation.  Highlighting one area of ongoing cooperation Dr. 
Carlos Tadeu Fraga of Petrobras discussed cooperation with DOE's 
National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL), working to commercialize the 
process by which residual sugarcane biomass is processed for second 
generation ethanol.  Dr. Fraga explained that part of the bilateral 
cooperation between CENPES and NREL involves comparing research, 
harmonizing results, and eventually will include sharing test 
samples. 
 
¶27.  (SBU) In a roundtable discussion moderated by the Sao Paulo 
State Research Foundation (FAPESP), Brazilian scientists discussed 
the future of Brazilian biofuels from the scientific perspective. 
FAPESP's Glaucia de Souza discussed the Biomass Division program 
aiming to achieve transgenic advances in sugarcane in Brazil, 
described as analogous to corn in the U.S. 100 years ago. Current 
FAPESP-sponsored research is focused on creating insect resistant 
sugarcane and sequencing the entire sugarcane genome and the genetic 
structure of the cell wall, possibly leading to the discovery of an 
enzyme that can easily break down the wall, or improve on existing 
acid hydrolysis procedures to the same effect. FAPESP's BIOEN 
program is interested in collaborating with additional US 
researchers in the bilateral efforts. 
 
¶28.  (SBU) Souza emphasized that sugarcane uniquely offers both a 
high amount of sucrose for first generation ethanol production as 
well as an abundance of biomass for second generation use.  FAPESP's 
Marcos Buckeridge argued that unlocking the additional energy stored 
in the biomass could triple the amount of energy available from the 
same amount of sugarcane.  Jose Luiz Oliverio, Vice-President of 
capital-goods giant Dedini, expects to have the first commercially 
available products to process bagasse into second generation fuels 
by 2010. Given the high capital cost involved in second generation 
production, William Burnquist (Center for Sugarcane Technology, CTC) 
suggested that the U.S. and Brazil jointly invest in a binational 
second generation ethanol mill. (Note: Despite this research into 
second generation biofuels, over 80 percent of Brazilian R&D monies 
are spent on first generation technologies. End Note) 
 
¶29.  (SBU) While Souza praised the growing collaboration of 
 
BRASILIA 00001122  006 OF 006 
 
 
Brazilian and U.S. universities, biofuels consultant Plinio Nastari 
offered two practical suggestions for furthering bilateral 
cooperation on the R&D front.  Noting that U.S. grant funding laws 
prohibit grantees from conducting research outside of the United 
States, Nastari suggested that regulations be revised to allow for 
U.S. companies to conduct their research in Brazil where access to 
sugarcane feedstock is abundant.  He also suggested that the U.S. 
and Brazil jointly fund a small travel program to facilitate the 
travel of cash-strapped biofuel consultants with a view to 
accelerate biofuels R&D. 
 
¶30.  (SBU) Moderator Carlos Henrique de Brito Cruz mentioned that 
the U.S. participation in the InterAcademy Panel on International 
Issues (IAP) is inactive at a time when ethanol has come under 
strong attack from other countries.  He asked for U.S. 
representation from the National Academy of Sciences at the IAP's 
next meeting.  A/DS Kupfer called on the scientific community to 
weigh in on the food v. fuel debate and noted that the voice of the 
scientific community adds significant credibility to a debate that 
has been made largely inter-governmental. 
 
FOLLOW-UP 
--------- 
¶31.  (SBU) Post identifies the following areas for follow-up action: 
designating central points of contact, establishing working groups, 
arranging a Washington visit by MME Minister Lobao, helping to 
identify small and medium-sized U.S. firms with interest in on-shore 
and shallow water exploration, renewing 1997 Implementing Agreement 
for Cooperation on Energy Technology, pursuing nuclear cooperation, 
exploring the possibility of providing expert consultation on GNEP, 
and considering the possibility of U.S. participation at the 
Inter-academy panel on international issues. 
 
 
¶32.  (SBU) COMMENT:  The visit by A/DS Kupfer is the first of a 
series of 3 strategic high profile visits to Brazil focused on the 
energy sector.  State Department Undersecretary for Economic Affairs 
Reuben Jeffery is planning a visit in the coming months with a 
specific focus on the biofuels MOU, as well as the wider array of 
energy issues between our two countries.  In October, Commerce 
Secretary Gutierrez will visit for the CEO forum and will bring 
attention to opportunities for U.S. companies in Brazil's energy 
sector.  Kupfer's visit successfully started the process by 
highlighting U.S. interest in the sector and helping to identify 
opportunities for collaboration.  We have an opportunity to 
institutionalize these relationship-building and energy 
security-enhancing collaborations.  Designating central points of 
contact for each side and establishing working groups will be the 
first steps in ensuring that the results of this visit reach their 
full potential. 
 
 
¶33.  This message was produced jointly by Embassy Brasilia, Congen 
Rio and Congen Sao Paulo, and cleared with DOE. 
 
SOBEL