VZCZCXRO1497
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0818/01 2270535
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 140535Z AUG 08 ZDK CTG RUEHTC 7394
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0277
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNS/NSC WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUEHSI/AMEMBASSY TBILISI 0001
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 0001

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 000818 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O.12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR
SUBJECT: TFGGO1: SERBIAN GOVERNMENT SILENT ON GEORGIA, BUT RADICAL 
OPPOSITION SUPPORTS RUSSIA 
 
REF: A) STATE 86173, B) BELGRADE 772, C) BELGRADE 382 
 
BELGRADE 00000818  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) The Serbian government has not taken an official position 
on the Georgia situation (Ref A), hoping to avoid a diplomatic Catch 
22 with regard to Kosovo and aggravating either Russia or the West. 
Government officials, the local press, and Russia's ambassador to 
Serbia, however, have drawn comparisons between Ossetia and Kosovo, 
claiming that other similar conflicts will follow.  While the 
government has remained silent, Serbia's Radicals have openly 
supported Russia.  The pressure may mount on the government to make 
a public statement regarding Georgia, and Russia may call in its 
favors with Serbia to gain its support.  Serbia will try to remain 
on the sidelines, recognizing that Russian policy has painted it 
into a box.  End Summary. 
 
No Official Position, Despite Perceived Parallels 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Although the Serbian government has not taken an official 
position on the Georgia conflict, Serbia supports the August 8 
European Union statement and the EU's efforts to find a peaceful 
solution, Serbia's MFA Director for Russia and Euro-Asia Ambassador 
Vladimir Mirkovic told us on August 13.  Mirkovic said although 
there were "some parallels" between Georgia and Kosovo, he 
acknowledged that the situations had "different environments and 
circumstances."  (Serbia opposed Kosovo's unilateral declaration 
independence, seeing it as a violation of both the Serbian 
Constitution and international law.  Serbia continues to claim 
sovereignty over its former southern province, which is 
predominantly Albanian and which had been under UN administration 
since 1999.  Russia has continuously supported Serbia's position on 
Kosovo, particularly within the United Nations Security Council - 
Ref B.) 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Mirkovic said Serbia has good relations with Georgia, 
noting particulatly that Georgia had not recognized Kosovo's 
independence.  Serbia, he said, supported Georgia's territorial 
integrity, stating that "there should be no exceptions from 
international law."  Although there is some understanding for the 
Russian position, "for the moment, Serbia will refrain from any 
public position," Mirkovic said. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) In a separate conversation on August 13, MFA Americas Desk 
Director Dragana Filipovic told us that the Russians had tried to 
call in their chits with the Serbs by asking the latter to rally 
their "network" to support the Russian position.  Filipovic said she 
thought the MFA had politely declined. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) MOD State Secretary Dusan Spasojevic told us on August 13 
that he and others in the government recognized that the Russian 
aggression and use of Kosovo as "precedent" had painted Serbia into 
box.  Serbia of course respected Georgia's territorial integrity, he 
said, but was in no position to publicly either support Georgia or 
condemn Russia.  "I hope we can just stay silent," he said. 
Spasojevic assured us there was no genuine pro-Russian sentiment in 
Serbia, but that Russian support for Serbia in the UNSC had forced 
the government to treat Russia as friendly.  "But we all know our 
real history with Russia," he said, "and it has not been friendly." 
Spasojevic noted Soviet and Warsaw Pact plans to invade Yugoslavia 
after Tito's death in 1980. 
 
Kosovo Ministry Draws Parallels 
------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Others in the government have publicly drawn parallels 
between Georgia and Kosovo.  Oliver Ivanovic, State Secretary for 
the Serbian Ministry of Kosovo, said the situation in South Ossetia 
was a result of "unprincipaled stances on the part of various 
countries regarding the independence of Kosovo," B92 media reported 
on August 12.  The lesson to be learned from Kosovo, Ivanovic 
reportedly said, was that "international conflicts cannot be solved 
by force, violence and violations of international law," adding that 
he thought there would be additonal global consequences. (Ivanovic 
was traveling in Kosovo and unavailable to meet with us for further 
clarification of his remarks.) 
 
Opposition Equates Situation with Kosovo 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (U) Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) official and former State 
Secretary for Kosovo Dusan Prorokovic (DSS) told local media on 
August 12 that the situations in Kosovo and Georgia have two common 
 
BELGRADE 00000818  002 OF 003 
 
 
points: the attitude of the international community and the role of 
NATO.  Prorokovic said that without Kosovo's unilateral declaration 
of independence (UDI) and its recognition by some western countries, 
the problem of South Ossetia could have been resolved by diplomatic 
means.  Pushing the analogy further, Prorokovic said NATO had plans 
to build a giant military camp on the Black Sea near the Georgian 
city of Batumi, similar to the NATO military base in Kosovo, Camp 
Bondsteel.  The base preparations started two years ago and NATO 
would not give up that strategic goal, Prorokovic said. 
 
Russian Ambassador Draws Linkages 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Russia's Ambassador to Serbia, Aleksandr Konuzin, also 
publicly made the comparison to the situation in Kosovo.  On August 
12, Konuzin told Serbia's local news agency, Tanjug, that Georgia's 
"unilateral use of force should be placed in the the same category 
as other illegal unilateral steps such as the bombardment of Serbia, 
the invasion of Iraq, or the unilateral proclamation of the 
independence of Kosovo."  Mirkovic confirmed that the Russian 
Embassy in Serbia informed Serbia on August 8 of its actions in 
Georgia and "asked for Serbia's understanding." 
 
Radicals Openly Support Russia 
------------------------------ 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Only the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) has publicly 
supported Russia's actions in Georgia.  The SRS fully supported 
Russia's efforts to "preserve peace and protect the lives of Russian 
and other citizens living in South Ossetia," according to their 
August 8 press release.  The statement also said the SRS expected 
Russia would take back "all territories occupied by Georgian and 
American troops."  The SRS and Serbian nationalist groups marched on 
August 12 to the Russian embassy in Belgrade to show solidarity with 
Russia's actions in Georgia.  Embassy sources estimated the crowd at 
only 200. 
 
Media Sees Paradox 
------------------- 
 
¶10.  (U) Several independent political analysts have claimed in the 
media that the conflict in South Ossetia is a direct result of 
Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence, which opened a 
"Pandora's Box" in various troubled regions worldwide.  "Washington 
has long defended Kosovo Albanians' right to an independent state, 
but in the case of its ally Georgia, it is opposing secession," 
wrote "Politika's" columnist Bosko Jaksic in an August 12 op-ed. 
"Principles do not apply to Serbia or Georgia. They apply to the 
United States and Russia.  It is high time we finally understand 
that the mighty do as they please and the small do as they must. 
What should Serbia do now?  Whatever it ay say now [about the 
Georgian conflict], Serbiawill do to itself a disservice....The 
wise cours of action is (for Serbia) to keep out....  Everyboy 
protects their own interests," Jaksic wrote, ilustrating the 
Serbian public perception of the onflict. 
 
Serbia Silent, for Now.... 
------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) While Serbia is currntly silent on the issue, some 
analysts speculateit may need to publicly back Russia.  Serbia may 
ultimately take Russia's side in the conflict with Georgia, former 
MFA official and informal G-17 advisor Milan Pajevic told us on 
August 12.  Serbia may feel the need to do so in order to secure 
(paradoxically) continued Russian support for Kosovo.  Pajevic said 
Russia may also try to condition renegotiation of the terms of a 
bilateral Serbia-Russia energy deal (Ref C) on Serbia's public 
support for Russia.  As long as Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic is 
focused solely on Kosovo and Russia's support, Serbia "ultimately 
will make a connection in favor of Russia,"  Pajevic said, 
expressing his disagreement with the Government of Serbia's current 
hardline Kosovo policy. 
 
Kouchner and Shoygu Cancel Belgrade Visits 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Due to the Georgia crisis, French Foreign Minister Bernard 
Kouchner canceled a planned August 13 trip to Belgrade, according to 
the French Embassy.  Kouchner had planned to discuss Serbia's path 
to the EU and Serbia's plans to bring the Kosovo issue to the 
International Court of Justice.  Russia's Minister for Emergency 
Situations Sergey Shoygu also cancelled a Belgrade visit planned for 
this week in which he intended to discuss the pending bilateral 
energy deal.  The MFA's Mirkovic told us that the meeting would be 
rescheduled for next week. 
 
BELGRADE 00000818  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10. (SBU)  The situation in Georgia has placed Serbia in a 
diplomatic pickle.  While Serbia  asserts its own sovereignty over 
Kosovo, its Russian benefactor is concurrently supporting the 
Ossetians' attempt to secede from the democratically-elected 
government of Georgia.  While we recognize Kosovo as a sui generis 
case, for the Serbian government, the situation in Georgia has 
awkward similarities which could put it at odds with its UNSC ally 
Russia.  For now, the Serbian government is walking the tightrope by 
privately supporting EU efforts to find a peaceful solution in 
Georgia, while remaining quiet publicly.  The government hopes that 
both domestic and international actors will allow it to remain 
silent.    End Comment. 
 
BRUSH