VZCZCXYZ0009
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHGB #2605 2300608
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 170608Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8874
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS BAGHDAD 002605 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON ELAB IZ
SUBJECT: UNEMPLOYMENT IN FALLUJAH 
 
¶1. (U) THIS IS AN ANBAR EPRT REPORTING CABLE. 
 
¶2. (U) SUMMARY:  ACCORDING TO THE LOCAL BUSINESS SCHOOL AND 
THE GOI, FALLUJAH DISTRICT'S 15.9 PERCENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 
IS LOWER THAN EXPECTED, AND MAY REFLECT A NORMALIZING 
ECONOMY.  ON THE OTHER HAND, THE RATE ALSO REFLECTS A 15 
PERCENT INCREASE IN LOWER-PAYING AGRICULTURAL WORK IN RURAL 
AREAS AT THE EXPENSE OF URBAN INDUSTRIAL JOBS.  EPRT FALLUJAH 
HOPES TO HELP ADDRESS THIS IMBALANCE BY PROMOTING PRIVATE 
SECTOR-ORIENTED UNIVERSITY TRAINING.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶3. (U) SINCE EARLY MARCH, EPRT FALLUJAH HAS WORKED WITH DR. 
KHALIL KHALAF JASSAM, DEAN OF THE BUSINESS SCHOOL, AL ANBAR 
UNIVERSITY FALLUJAH CAMPUS AND HIS FACULTY ON QUANTIFYING THE 
LEVEL OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN FALLUJAH DISTRICT.  ASSISTANT 
LECTURER, GHAYDAA, SADIQ SALMAN AL-ASWAD, WHO WORKED CLOSELY 
WITH THE GOI TO GATHER INFORMATION ON THE UNEMPLOYMENT ISSUE, 
HAS BEEN INSTRUMENTAL IN THE STUDY. 
 
¶4. (U) FOR THE PURPOSE OF THIS STUDY, THE IRAQIS COMPARE 
THEIR ECONOMY TO ONE OF A DEVELOPED COUNTRY AND DEFINE 
UNEMPLOYMENT AS THE "STATUS OF AN INDIVIDUAL WHO IS PRESENTLY 
OUT OF WORK AND ACTIVELY LOOKING FOR WORK." FALLUJAH DISTRICT 
CONSISTS OF THE FOLLOWING CITIES AND TOWNS: FALLUJAH CITY, 
AMIRIYAH-FERRIS, KARMAH, SAQLAWIYAH AND HABBANIYAH TOURIST 
VILLAGE. 
 
¶5. (U) BASED ON THEIR PRELIMINARY DATA, FALLUJAH DISTRICT 
UNEMPLOYMENT WAS 15.9 PERCENT FOR THE FIRST QUARTER CALENDAR 
QUARTER OF 2008 SUGGESTING A NORMALIZING ECONOMY AND 
BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED JOB GROWTH.  FOR COMPARISON, JORDAN'S 
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WAS 13 PERCENT DURING THE LAST QUARTER OF 
CALENDAR YEAR 2007.  GIVEN THIS IS PRELIMINARY DATA, THE 
FINAL NUMBER WILL LIKELY DIFFER WHEN RELEASED AFTER THE 
MUSLIM HOLY MONTH OF RAMADAN (SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 08). 
 
¶6. (U) ACCORDING TO THE PRELIMINARY STUDY, THOSE BETWEEN THE 
AGES OF 15 AND 24 YEARS ACCOUNT FOR FIFTY-THREE PERCENT OF 
THE UNEMPLOYED.  MANY YOUNG IRAQIS IN FALLUJAH ARE EITHER OUT 
OF WORK OR UNDER-EMPLOYED BECAUSE THE EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM HAS 
FAILED TO PREPARE THEM FOR THE PRIVATE SECTOR. THIS PROBLEM 
IS MAGNIFIED BY THE FACT THAT IRAQ HAS ONE OF THE WORLD'S 
YOUNGEST AND FASTEST GROWING POPULATIONS.  THE EPRT IS 
CONCENTRATING EFFORTS AT THE UNIVERSITY LEVEL IN BUILDING 
CAPACITY TO TRAIN STUDENTS IN BUSINESS AND OTHER PRIVATE 
SECTOR SKILLS. 
 
¶7. (U) IN GEOGRAPHIC TERMS, UNEMPLOYMENT RANGES FROM 14.6 
PERCENT IN THE RURAL AREAS TO 16.9 PERCENT IN THE URBAN 
OUTSKIRTS TO 21.5 PERCENT IN THE URBAN CENTERS.  DR. KHALID 
EXPLAINED THE MIGRATION OF WORKERS AND BUSINESSES FROM THE 
CENTER OF THE CITIES TO THE RURAL AND OUTSKIRTS AREAS DUE TO 
SECURITY, ACCESS AND JOB GROWTH EXPLAINS THE DIFFERENCE AMONG 
THE AREAS.   THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE WITH INCOME AND 
NOT WORKING IS IN THE RURAL AREAS AND THAT NUMBER IS FIVE 
PERCENT, ACCORDING TO GHAYDAA,. 
 
¶8. (U) IRAQ'S TUMULTUOUS PAST THREE DECADES AND REDUCED RAW 
MATERIAL IMPORTS DUE TO INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS HAVE 
NEGATIVELY IMPACTED THE AREA, SHIFTING JOBS FROM INDUSTRY AND 
MANUFACTURING TO LOWER PAYING AGRICULTURE, ACCORDING TO DR. 
KHALID.  AS A RESULT, AGRIBUSINESS, WHICH HISTORICALLY 
ACCOUNTED FOR 15 PERCENT OF EMPLOYMENT, NOW EMPLOYS NEARLY 30 
PERCENT OF THE WORKING POPULATION. (GOI PAYMENT OF THE $87.45 
MILLION FOR APPROXIMATELY 3,000 INDIVIDUAL INDUSTRIAL 
COMPENSATION CLAIMS IN FALLUJAH WOULD GO FAR IN CORRECTING 
THIS IMBALANCE.) 
CROCKER