VZCZCXRO4833
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLH RUEHLN RUEHLZ
RUEHPW RUEHROV RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHAH #1094/01 2331405
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 201405Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1392
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 4187
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1999
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 1864
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 2435
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 2798

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 001094 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, PPD, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SCUL SOCI TX
SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN: EARTHQUAKE RUMOR SHOWS DANGER OF 
LIMITING ACCESS TO INFORMATION 
 
 ¶1.  (U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Not for public Internet. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) SUMMARY: The calm of the dead of night in Ashgabat 
was disturbed by residents flocking out to the streets and 
driving off to their country dachas in response to a rumor 
that an earthquake was imminent.  This rumor turned out to 
have absolutely no basis in fact, and it is difficult to 
understand how it started.  Nevertheless, it perfectly 
illustrates the problems caused when there is limited access 
to information and no free press.  In the absence of access 
to credible sources for local information, Turkmen rely on 
friends, neighbors, Russian TV, and rumint -- none of which 
is 100% reliable.  END SUMMARY. 
 
EARTHQUAKE'S A COMING 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The evening of August 19-20, a rumor spread like 
wildfire that an earthquake was imminent, setting off a 
city-wide panic in Ashgabat.  Around 1:00am August 19, RSO 
received a call from the local guard force commander, who 
said that he had heard from a friend, who claimed someone had 
told him, that Turkmen television had broadcast news that 
there would be an earthquake within an hour.  The local guard 
force commander added that when he looked outside, the street 
was filled with people and their belongings.  The mobile 
patrol also called RSO to say that people were filing out of 
their buildings in various sections of the city.  RSO 
initiated the cascade to alert American employees, and 
through CONS, local AmCits. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Although the response by locals varied by 
neighborhood, panic often ensued.  One Emboff left the elite 
apartment building where he lived to find his Turkmen 
neighbors fleeing in cars, saying that "Moscow" (Russian TV) 
had said an earthquake was coming.  Some local employees 
informed their employers that they were going to their dachas 
out of town.  Many Turkmen filed out into the streets based 
on what they had heard from a friend, neighbor or relative. 
One embassy night guard said that his family had called him 
to warn about the earthquake.  Another FSN employee said that 
his sister-in-law, who works nights in a hospital, called his 
family.  The "source" was variously, Turkmen TV, Russian TV 
or the Internet.  Several people told us that the news had 
said there had been an earthquake in China or Iran, which was 
the harbinger of one in Turkmenistan. (NOTE:  The only 
sizable seismic activity near Turkmenistan took place on the 
China-Myanmmar border at 2:35am Turkmenistan time -- long 
after the rumor started.  One FSN first heard about an 
impending earthquake at 10:00pm on August 19.  END NOTE.) 
One story told of soldiers knocking on doors, telling people 
to leave.  One rumor said that an Ashgabat-to-Turkmenabat 
train had been stopped by officials because of the impending 
earthquake, and passengers were made to disembark.  Following 
the threads back, it turned out that a passenger told her 
daughter that the train was delayed two hours because it had 
stopped in the night. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) While most people told of hearing about the 
earthquake from someone who heard of someone who supposedly 
heard it on TV, there was one account of possibly official 
involvement in contacting people about the impending 
earthquake.  The neighbor of one FSN told her that she had 
been awakened by the loudspeaker blaring from a car with 
official government plates.  The loudspeaker announced that 
people should get out of their homes at once. 
 
NEVERMIND 
 
¶6. (SBU) Although one group of residents insisted that the 
earthquake warning was on until 5:00am, by 2:30-3:00am, the 
police were taking steps to turn the rumor off.  Police cars 
went through several neighborhoods with loudspeakers 
announcing that everything was fine and people should go 
home.  The police told Embassy TDYers, who were standing 
 
ASHGABAT 00001094  002 OF 002 
 
 
outside of their hotel, that they should go back in.  One 
group of residents supposedly called the presidential 
apparat, who confirmed there was no impending earthquake. 
The mother of one FSN called a hospital, and hospital staff 
informed her that the rumor was not true. 
 
¶7. (SBU)  COMMENT:  The speed and intensity of this rumor 
highlights the power of rumors in a country where there is 
restricted access to information and no freedom of the press. 
 As there are no credible local sources of information, 
people rely heavily on "Moscow" or rumint.  And like many 
unsubstantiated rumors, this one took on a life of its own 
that was not hampered by the contraindicators.  Yes, 
Turkmenistan is in a seismic zone, has had devastating 
earthquakes in the past, and is due for one in the future. 
Nevertheless, probably no place on earth has the ability to 
predict an earthquake within an hour or even a day. 
Furthermore, animals, which are often the first to react when 
there is an impending natural disaster, were calm, cool, and 
collected.  If the government would like to avoid the 
problems and disruption caused by people reacting to 
wild-eyed rumors, it would be wise to stand up the proposed 
agency dealing with emergency situations and promote 
increased access to information.  END COMMENT. 
CURRAN