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RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
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RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL PRIORITY 2355
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RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
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RHMFISS/CMDCFLCC ARIFJAN KU PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/USATHIRD-3A COMMAND GROUP FT MCPHERSON GA PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 ASHGABAT 001007 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR EPET ECON SCUL SOCI SNAR KDEM
TX 
SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN:  SCENESETTER FOR THE VISIT OF CSTC-A 
DEPUTY COMMANDER FOR POL-MIL AFFAIRS BRIGADIER GENERAL 
WOLTERS 
 
ASHGABAT 00001007  001.2 OF 007 
 
 
¶1.  (U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Not for public Internet. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  Embassy Ashgabat warmly welcomes your 
visit to Turkmenistan as an important opportunity to continue 
our bilateral dialogue in the area of security cooperation. 
Your first visit to Turkmenistan follows the outgoing and 
incoming NAVCENT Commanders, visit in mid-June and the 
CENTCOM Deputy Commander,s visit in mid-August.  President 
Bush met briefly with President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov on 
April 3 at the NATO Summit in Bucharest.  Into the second 
year of his presidency, Berdimuhamedov is increasingly 
self-confident and will not hesitate to speak his mind.  We 
believe his instincts are generally right, even if his 
understanding is elementary and his implementation timelines 
unrealistically quick.  Turkmenistan will gradually bring its 
standards -- including educational and human rights -- in 
line with international levels.  But he's starting from 
almost zero with very few on his team who have the experience 
and capacity to implement the reforms he says he wants.  Like 
many ex-Soviet governments, Turkmenistan relies too heavily 
on presidential decrees and the power of law-on-paper.  The 
longer-term monumental task will be to change a century of 
national political psychology, the entrenched bureaucracy, 
and the culture of rent-seeking.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Over eighteen months into the post-Niyazov era, 
Turkmenistan is becoming significantly different from the 
international bad-joke pariah state it was under the late 
President-for-Life.  But precisely what Turkmenistan is 
becoming is still a work in progress.  Evidence increasingly 
suggests it could one day become a responsible partner for 
the United States and a normal international player. 
Berdimuhamedov's fundamental policies have been promising. 
However, he faces an uphill struggle against political 
traditions that favor autocratic governance models and a 
bureaucratic capacity stunted by 15 years of Niyazovian 
repression and complete egocentrism.  The challenge will not 
be to get new reforms on the books -- Berdimuhamedov is 
already beginning to do this -- but rather, to change the 
attitudes and modi operandi of those officials responsible 
for implementing the new policies. 
 
DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS 
 
¶4.  (SBU) President Berdimuhamedov has made a public 
commitment to bring Turkmenistan's laws and practices -- 
including in areas of human rights -- up to international 
standards.  At his order, the country's legal, human rights 
and legislative bodies are working overtime to rewrite or 
draft more than 30 laws and codes, including on religion and 
civic organizations, family, and criminal and criminal 
procedures codes.  The President on April 16 also ordered 
that the country's constitution -- revised four times since 
1992 -- be redrafted in time for a September meeting of the 
Halk Maslahaty -- the massively large, rubber-stamp People's 
Council, which is responsible for approving constitutional 
changes.  The first draft, made public in mid-July, offers 
some good and some shortcomings.  Most notably, it calls for 
the elimination of the Halk Maslahaty, whose powers will in 
future be split between the president and the Mejlis 
(Parliament).  While USAID, UNDP, the OSCE Center and other 
foreign donors are seeking to offer as much advice as 
possible, the president's ambitious timeline for 
constitutional reform provides only minimal opportunity for 
international comment. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) In seeking to promote democratic development and 
strengthened respect for human rights, the embassy is working 
with the newly empowered Institute of Democracy and Human 
Rights, which is one of the government bodies most open to 
 
ASHGABAT 00001007  002.2 OF 007 
 
 
and cooperative with foreign donors.  We believe that this 
body, which has a director who clearly enjoys the trust of 
the president, can play a significant role.  In January, the 
Ministry of Foreign Affairs agreed to USAID's proposal for 
cooperation with the institute.  Areas for cooperation 
include information exchange, the provision of legal and 
technical expertise, and support for increased access to 
information.  The institute has fully embraced USAID as a 
valued partner.  Together with the Institute, USAID's 
partner, the International Center for Not-for-Profit Law, has 
laid out an ambitious plan for cooperation over the next 
year.  Other USAID partners have made or are preparing to 
make other proposals based on feedback from the institute. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Although the president is making progress in 
overhauling Turkmenistan's laws, human rights practices 
continue to lag behind the president's intentions.  RFE/RL 
reporters continue to experience considerable harassment from 
security forces, including efforts to disrupt the wedding of 
one reporter's son.  Small evangelical Christian religious 
groups continue to experience problems with registration, and 
some unregistered groups have experienced harassment.  We 
have heard reports that some individuals are continuing to 
experience troubles with traveling abroad, including the 
daughter of an RFE/RL reporter who we previously had been 
told would be allowed to go overseas.  While the president 
last summer released Turkmenistan's former Grand Mufti, 
imprisoned since 2005 under charges of complicity in the 2002 
attack against former President Niyazov's motorcade, only a 
handful of other individuals who were also imprisoned for 
alleged involvement in the attack have been released. 
Despite these problems, the number of new cases -- and of 
individuals coming to the embassy seeking assistance with 
perceived human rights complaints -- is down sharply from 
previous years. 
 
MEDIA 
 
¶7.  (SBU) While most of Turkmenistan's media remains 
state-controlled, President Berdimuhamedov has emphasized the 
need for reform, calling for more creativity and more 
international and political news to better inform readers and 
viewers.  Simultaneously, however, he has noted that a 
principal role for the media is to stimulate patriotism and 
support for reform efforts, and there is no official 
discussion of allowing independent media to develop.  Within 
this context, state media have shown gradually increasing 
openness, but still much uncertainty and a lack of capacity 
in attempting to fulfill the president's demands.  In 
particular, the Ministry of Culture and Broadcasting has 
asked specifically for U.S. experts and assistance to further 
develop Turkmenistan's news media.  This has led to 
unprecedented embassy access to and contact with state media, 
but also so far to only minimal improvements in 
newsgathering, editing and production techniques.  Both 
broadcast and print media have started to cover a wider range 
of topics, but would not even think of challenging or 
criticizing government policies.  These limits are a result 
of strict self-censorship -- no one wants to be the first to 
try an "unapproved" innovation.  We believe there remains 
potential for coaxing Turkmenistan's media further along the 
road of providing more and better information.  A next step 
in this regard could be continued and expanded partnerships 
with U.S. and other foreign media outlets. 
 
EDUCATION 
 
¶8.  (SBU) President Berdimuhamedov and his officials 
repeatedly emphasize that reforming the education sector has 
been one of their top priorities, and he has said to U.S. 
 
ASHGABAT 00001007  003.2 OF 007 
 
 
visitors the hardest task is to change the mentality of a 
people.  Standard schooling has returned to the ten 
year-model of the Soviet era from Niyazov's nine-year 
standard.  University education has returned to the previous 
standard of five years, instead of Niyazov's model of two 
years of study and two years of work, and graduate programs 
are being reintroduced this September.  Many new university 
buildings have been constructed or are under construction. 
The country is opening "state of the art" grade schools and 
secondary schools.  Recently the president announced that any 
new school construction project will only be considered 
completed when the building has full Internet access. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) And yet, to date, the president's (and 
government's) focus has been more on improving the shell than 
on reforming the core of the educational system.  While there 
has been little emphasis placed up to now on retraining 
teachers or on modernizing the curricula, there have been 
some clear signs, during past visits of delegations from both 
Texas A&M and Chadron State College (Nebraska), that the 
government recognizes the links between human capacity and 
curricula and may be considering curricula changes for 
institutes of higher education.  In particular, the Minister 
of Education is eager to re-start a Texas A&M partnership 
that would reform Turkmenistan's sole business education 
program to American standards over the next 3-4 years (this 
project is being fine-tuned for review by the Government of 
Turkmenistan).  At lower levels, though, the system -- 
including some hard-core hold-outs like the infamous Nury 
Bayramov, the Ministry of Education's International Relations 
head -- continues to constrain individual initiative and 
block suggestions for improvements and reforms from reaching 
the Minister.  In particular, many return exchange 
participants are prevented or discouraged from returning to 
their places of work or study.  Despite these problems, there 
have been some murmurs of interest in a Bolashak-like program 
in which the government would provide scholarships to Turkmen 
students to attend U.S. universities. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Action on U.S.-sponsored educational programs is 
focused in USAID and the embassy's Public Diplomacy section. 
More than 100 Turkmenistan citizens are participating in 2008 
in the embassy's FLEX (high-school), UGRAD (college-level), 
Turkmenistan AUCA Scholarship program (TASP), Teachers 
Excellence and Achievement (TEA), Muskie, Fulbright and 
Humphrey exchange programs.  Through its Quality Learning 
Program, USAID is seeking to support efforts to improve 
teaching and student assessment methodologies, increase 
teachers' participation in curriculum and education policy 
development, and promote development of transparent and 
efficient school finance and management systems.  Most 
recently, USAID has proposed two new programs:  1) to assist 
Turkmenistan to take part in the upcoming Trends in 
International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMMS), a 
rigorous study of student skills and knowledge in math and 
science that will help Turkmenistan to bring its education 
system in line with international best practice, and 2) in 
coordination with UNICEF, to improve secondary math, science 
and advanced literacy skills in UNICEF pilot schools.  USAID 
discussed these proposals with Minister of Education 
Annaamanov May 15, and is working on a formal proposal for 
both projects. 
 
FOREIGN POLICY 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Despite his statements that he plans to continue 
the "neutrality" policies of his predecessor, Berdimuhamedov 
has put an unprecedented emphasis on foreign affairs to 
repair Turkmenistan's international and regional relations 
and to become a respected player on the international stage. 
 
ASHGABAT 00001007  004.2 OF 007 
 
 
Under the president's leadership, Turkmenistan has reached 
out to participate actively in regional organizations.  He 
has met with all the leaders in the region, as well as with 
those of other countries of importance to Turkmenistan. 
China has a strong and growing commercial presence in 
Turkmenistan, and continues to court the president through a 
series of high-level commercial and political visits, 
including a July 2007 Berdimuhamedov trip to Beijing focused 
on natural gas and pipeline deals.  Presidents Berdimuhamedov 
and Gul (Turkey) have exchanged visits, but bilateral 
relations continue to be colored more by the image of 
Turkey's lucrative trade and construction contracts that are 
eating up large amounts of money from the national budget. 
Berdimuhamedov has held positive meetings with high-level 
leaders of international organizations (including both the UN 
and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) 
and IFIs that have led to productive, cooperative 
relationships.  The UN High Commissioner on Human Rights, 
Louise Arbour, visited Turkmenistan in May 2007, and a 
Special Rapporteur on Religion will visit in September. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Berdimuhamedov has held positive meetings with 
high-level U.S. officials and is well-disposed toward the 
United States.  He made his first trip to the United States 
as president to participate in the UNGA session in September 
2007, where he also met with Secretary of State Rice.  In 
November 2007, Secretary of Energy Bodman met with 
Berdimuhamedov in Ashgabat, and Berdimuhamedov's meeting with 
President Bush during the April Bucharest NATO summit 
received extensive and very positive media coverage in 
Turkmenistan.  Berdimuhamedov made his first visit to EU and 
NATO headquarters in Brussels in November 2007. 
 
REGIONAL COOPERATION 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Accompanying the president's focus on reaching out 
to Turkmenistan's near and more distant neighbors has been an 
increased effort to participate in and cooperate with 
regional fora.  In part, this represents a recognition that 
Turkmenistan's interests in a number of areas -- including 
trade, energy, and combating narcotics trafficking -- are not 
well-served by continuing President Niyazov's go-it-alone 
approach.  Turkmenistan has become an increasingly active 
player in a number of regional fora, including the 
(counter-narcotics) Central Asian Regional Information and 
Coordination Center, the Central Asian Trade Investment 
Framework Agreement mechanism (TIFA), and the European 
Union's Central Asian Troika process (Turkmenistan hosted the 
troika meeting and wanted to host TIFA).  Cognizant of its 
neutral status, it has bolstered its previous participation 
in meetings of the Commonwealth of Independent States with 
participation -- but only as an observer -- in the Shanghai 
Cooperation Organization and (in its status as a 
Partnership-for-Peace country) NATO.  Turkmenistan is also 
participating in regional reconstruction efforts in 
Afghanistan, sponsoring a number of Afghan students at its 
universities and pedagogical institutes, and agreed in early 
April to bolster by 2010 the electricity it is already 
selling to Afghanistan by an additional 300 Megawatts.  The 
president also agreed to extend the current price at which 
Turkmenistan is selling electricity to Afghanistan -- 2 cents 
per kilowatt hour -- to 2010. 
 
ECONOMY AND FINANCE 
 
¶14.  (SBU) President Berdimuhamedov has stated repeatedly, in 
many fora, that he wants to develop an international-standard 
market economy and to promote foreign investment.  To those 
ends, he has placed a new priority over the past eight months 
on promoting economic and financial reform.  Turkmenistan has 
 
ASHGABAT 00001007  005.2 OF 007 
 
 
announced that it will redenominate its currency in 2009, 
lopping off three zeros, and has already unified the 
country's dual exchange rates.  The president has stated that 
some state enterprises will be privatized -- though not in 
"strategic" sectors like oil and gas, electricity, textiles, 
construction, transportation, and communications.  He has 
signed a new foreign investment law, which, among other 
things, guarantees resident foreign businessmen and their 
families one-year, multi-entry visas, and approved changes to 
the tax code.  The president divided the overworked Ministry 
of Economy and Finance into two bodies -- a Ministry of 
Economy and Development, and a Ministry of Finance, and he 
has created a Supreme Auditing Chamber with the goal of 
providing transparency in the budget process.  In a notable 
development, the president also announced that he will 
abolish the opaque extrabudgetary funds that were prone under 
his predecessor to misuse and corruption.  Finally, the state 
has slowly begun to raise the price of electricity and price 
of vehicle fuel.  These measures could be part of an early 
effort to phase out the state's extensive and tremendously 
expensive subsidies system. 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Even though the president has reshaped his 
bureaucracy, put in place the structures that theoretically 
should help promote a market economy, and opened Turkmenistan 
to cooperation with IFIs, the lack of basic understanding and 
bureaucratic capacity remains an enormous impediment to 
change.  New reforms are being rolled out with inadequate 
preparation, understanding of their consequences and 
explanation -- and are leading to increased public 
dissatisfaction.  USAID is working through its contractor, 
BearingPoint, to implement a new program to increase 
bureaucratic capacity and to support growth of private 
business in Turkmenistan.  Department of Treasury 
representatives will also visit Turkmenistan in June to 
identify areas where Treasury might play a role in promoting 
reform, should funding be available. 
 
ENERGY 
 
¶16.  (SBU) Turkmenistan has world-class natural gas reserves, 
but Russia's near monopoly of its energy exports has left 
Turkmenistan receiving much less than the world price and 
overly beholden to Russia, although Gazprom has agreed to pay 
"world price" starting in 2009.  (NOTE:  Despite this 
promise, Gazprom and Turkmenistan have yet to agree on 
precisely what this means and are still negotiating natural 
gas prices for 2009.  END NOTE.)  Pipeline diversification, 
including both a pipeline to China proposed for 2009 and the 
possibility of resurrecting plans for Trans-Caspian and 
Trans-Afghanistan pipelines that would avoid the Russian 
routes, and construction of high-voltage electricity lines to 
transport excess energy to Turkmenistan's neighbors, 
including Afghanistan, would not only enhance Turkmenistan's 
economic and political sovereignty, but also help fuel new 
levels of prosperity throughout the region.  Berdimuhamedov 
has told U.S. interlocutors he recognizes the need for more 
options and has taken the first steps to this end, but he 
also took the steps needed to increase the volume of gas 
exports to Russia, signing an agreement (with Russia and 
Kazakhstan) in Moscow in December 2007 to enlarge and rebuild 
a non-functioning Soviet-era Caspian littoral pipeline. 
(NOTE:  While little progress has been publicized on this 
project, government officials and some foreign oil company 
officials maintain that plans are on track, with construction 
to begin in 2009.  END NOTE.)  He will require encouragement 
and assistance from the international community if he is to 
maintain a course of diversification in the face of ongoing 
Russian efforts to keep Turkmenistan from weaning itself away 
from Russia. 
 
ASHGABAT 00001007  006.2 OF 007 
 
 
 
¶17.  (SBU) One of the biggest challenges that Turkmenistan's 
hydrocarbon sector will have to face, if it is to succeed in 
pipeline diversification, is the need for increased 
natural-gas production.  Turkmenistan produced a reported 
72.3 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2007, a figure that barely 
meets its existing domestic needs and export commitments. 
The president directed that production should increase to 
81.5 bcm in 2008.  Even larger increases will be needed as/if 
new pipelines come online.  While Turkmenistan has welcomed 
foreign companies to work its offshore (primarily oil) 
Caspian blocks, it has up to now largely rejected allowing 
foreign energy companies to work its onshore gas fields, 
maintaining that it can handle the drilling itself.  But 
onshore natural gas production offers some tough challenges, 
including ultra-deep, high-pressure, high-sulphur, sub-salt 
drilling, which requires special skills and technologies and 
massive investment.  One Western analyst suggested that costs 
could run as high as $100 billion over the next five years. 
No one outside of the Turkmen government believes 
Turkmenistan has either the skills or the financial resources 
needed.  U.S. policy has been to promote onshore production 
by major Western oil companies.  There has been strong debate 
within the government about this, and we have watched views 
evolve to the point that the government is now hinting 
strongly that it will consider Western firms' bids to work 
onshore.  We believe, in the end, there will be major Western 
companies working onshore -- but we aren't there yet. 
 
COUNTER-NARCOTICS COOPERATION 
 
¶18.  (SBU) Berdimuhamedov's efforts to distance himself 
gradually from Niyazov's "Golden Age," we-have-no-problems 
rhetoric have led him to acknowledge publicly that 
Turkmenistan has serious problems with narcotics trafficking 
and addiction, primarily opiates from Afghanistan.  In 
January 2008, he established and funded a new DEA-like State 
Counter-Narcotics Service that will be responsible for both 
interdiction and demand-reduction efforts, and he put in 
charge an activist official, Murat Islamov, that the 
international donor community both respects and trusts. 
While Islamov already has a headquarters building, he is 
literally building his new service from the ground up. 
During a meeting with embassy officers in April, he welcomed 
whatever training and equipment the United States can 
provide.  With a promised infusion of $20 million in CENTCOM 
counter-narcotics funds in FY 2009 and the possibility of a 
similar amount in 2010, the embassy country team is now 
discussing how the United States can most effectively respond 
to Islamov's request. 
 
SECURITY 
 
¶19.  (SBU) The U.S. security relationship with Turkmenistan 
continues to unfold, with slow but consistent cooperation. 
Although basing is not an option, Turkmenistan remains an 
important conduit for the U.S. military to Afghanistan. 
Maintaining blanket overflight permission and the military 
refueling operation at Ashgabat Airport remains a key U.S. 
goal.  CENTCOM and Turkmenistan's military maintain an active 
military-to-military cooperation plan, and CENTCOM and the 
Nevada National Guard (operating through the State 
Partnership Program and CENTCOM's military cooperation and 
counternarcotics programs) have a productive 
counter-narcotics program that has funded training and 
completion of two border-crossing stations on the Iranian and 
Afghan borders.  A third border-crossing station is under 
construction at Farap on the Uzbekistan border, with two more 
to follow.  With the assistance of the Embassy's Export 
Control and Border-related Security (EXBS) program, the 
 
ASHGABAT 00001007  007.2 OF 007 
 
 
Embassy works to strengthen Turkmenistan's border security 
and to increase its ability to interdict smuggling of weapons 
of mass destruction. 
 
¶20. (SBU) General of the Army Agageldi Mammetgeldiyev has 
remained the Minister of Defense since 2002.  Mammetgeldiyev 
is a trained medical doctor and previously was the Chief of 
the State Border Service (SBS).  His first deputy and acting 
Chief of the General Staff, COL Muhammetguly Atabayev, is 
also a medical doctor.  The only general officer in the 
ministry is the minister.  The Ministry of Defense (MOD) and 
Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) are in the process of 
transferring emergency response-related responsibilities to a 
new organization, the State Service for Emergency Situations, 
but for the time-being COL Atabayev is the head of this 
fledgling organization.  The military completed its one 
"major" annual battalion-level exercise on May 5th, which 
featured a hostage rescue scenario and defense against an 
attacking enemy force.  Military reforms are ongoing, but the 
extent, direction, and opportunities for international 
involvement -- including U.S. support -- remain ill-defined 
and limited.  Mammetgeldiyev visited NAVCENT headquarters in 
Bahrain in January 2008, participated in the CENTCOM 
Commander-hosted CHOD Conference in Tampa -- his first visit 
to the United States -- in February 2008, and has accepted a 
Secretary of Defense offer to visit the United States in late 
September 2008.  General-Major Alovov, who accompanied 
Mammetgeldiyev to Bahrain, remains the SBS Chief.  Both are 
familiar meeting with DoD visitors. 
 
¶21. (SBU) Current U.S. security assistance programs focus on 
improving the communications capability of the Turkmenistan 
armed forces in the areas of emergency response and border 
security, English language ability, and in building a future 
leadership with western principles.  The EXBS program has 
provided support for operational upkeep of the former USCG 
Cutter Point Jackson, a U.S. Excess Defense Article donation 
to the State Border Service in 2001, which is one of the few 
operational vessels in the Turkmenistan maritime security 
forces.  Turkmenistan has received FMF/IMET since 1997 and in 
FY08 received $0/$300K and in FY09 is projected to receive 
$150K/$300K. 
CURRAN