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Viewing cable 08ANTANANARIVO572, Fatigued Comorans Anxious About Ramadan

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08ANTANANARIVO572 2008-08-26 07:57 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Antananarivo
VZCZCXRO8534
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0572/01 2390757
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 260757Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1531
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000572 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SOCI PGOV PHUM PREL ENRG ASEC CN
SUBJECT:  Fatigued Comorans Anxious About Ramadan 
 
REF:  ANTAN 531 
 
1. (SBU)  SUMMARY:  Fuel stocks are dwindling without another 
shipment confirmed, leading Comorans to fear Ramadan celebrations 
will be affected.  President Sambi's popularity remains low and is 
not helped by his frequent absences.  In this context, the GOC will 
convene a planning meeting August 28-29 for the eventual 
inter-island constitutional conference.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Resident Diplomats Concerned 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
2. (SBU) The return to "normal" following the recent fuel delivery 
to the Comoros will be short-lived (REFTEL).  Operators in Moroni 
expect fuel stocks to run out before the end of August; no new fuel 
shipment is currently expected.  According to French Ambassador 
Hallande, the Kuwaiti investment group operating in the Comoros have 
made USD three million available as of August 25 (it is unclear if 
this is loan, grant, or advance on royalties).  While this financing 
may allow another stop-gap fuel shipment, the actual supply delivery 
could take weeks.  Ambassador Hallande noted that representatives 
from all three island governments had approached him about new 
supply contracts with TOTAL; he said he replied that only the Union 
government could restore the fuel agreement. 
 
3. (SBU)  UNDP ResRep Opia Kumah said he remains in humanitarian 
crisis response mode, concerned that fuel shortages, rising food 
prices, and potential social unrest could combine for a severe 
impact in the coming months.  African Union Resident Representative 
Mouran Taiti, focused on longstanding political questions, does not 
think better governance to improve social conditions will be 
possible before the inter-island constitutional conference 
delineates the roles and responsibilities of institutions. 
 
Comorans Near Their Breaking Point? 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
4. (SBU) Long lines at service stations, electricity rationed to 
four hours per day, and related inconveniences have been readily 
born by the resilient Comoran population.  Limited fuel can be 
tolerated, but as we saw last month, the end of supplies brings 
public outrage.  Civil servants and teachers have not been paid for 
months.  President Sambi has never before been less popular.  Many 
Comoran contacts are preoccupied by the coming of Ramadan at the 
beginning of September; a period when they traditionally gather as 
families and communities in the evenings to break the day-long fast. 
 With the prospect of having neither fuel for transportation or 
electricity, these traditions will be hard to maintain.  There is 
typically an increase in food prices during Ramadan, which will 
exacerbate already elevated prices.  There is no indication the 
Union Government has the resources to make salary payments before 
Ramadan; a period when Comorans often spend three-months salary on 
their religious observances. 
 
Preparing For Inter-Island Talks 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
5. (SBU) In the midst of recurring energy crises, the Union will 
hold preparatory meetings August 28-29 to attempt to determine the 
timing, attendance, and agenda of the long-awaited "inter-island 
dialogue" to address constitutional, federal, and institutional 
problems.  The emboldened island presidents, in light of President 
Sambi's "incompetence" handling the country's fuel supply, are 
expected to stand firm on island autonomy.  Ambassador Mourad 
reported that no less than 20 "political parties" have registered 
with his office, "they represent no one, but they hope get a seat at 
the table to share in the spoils." 
 
6. (SBU) AU Special Envoy Francisco Madeira, who has pressured the 
Comorans to take this step since the June Anjouan president 
election, will be in Moroni to attend the preparatory meetings. 
According to Ambassador Mourad, the AU believes President Sambi must 
accomplish some kind of clarification and reform of Comoran 
federalism during his presidency; even if changes are officially 
enacted by his successor in 2010. 
 
Comment: 
- - - - - 
 
7. (SBU) Several prominent political and civic leaders have already 
called on Sambi to resign.  His campaign promises on housing, 
education, and health have been largely unrealized - with the 
exception of several Iranian-funded Koranic schools.  Sambi's 
greatest accomplishment, deposing Bacar and restoring order in 
Anjouan, was closely followed by the ill-advised cancellation of the 
TOTAL fuel supply contract before any viable replacement was in 
place.  (He did this immediately after his May visit to Teheran, 
where he apparently saw the Iranian offer of unrefined crude - which 
the GOC was somehow to have refined in Aden -- as too good to pass 
up.)  Disenchanted Comorans now hold scant hope that Sambi will 
accomplish much in his 19 months left in office; some are openly 
suspicious that he will try to move the country toward Muslim 
 
ANTANANARI 00000572  002 OF 002 
 
 
fundamentalism or Shi'ism.  In 2010, they may not expect much 
better, with the notable exception of 40,000 Mohelians excited for 
their island's turn to run the country. 
 
MARQUARDT