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RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 ABUJA 001593 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA, H 
H PLEASE PASS TO CODEL JOHNSON 
DOE FOR GEORGE PERSON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EAID EPET NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL JOHNSON (AUGUST 
18-20, 2008) 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIFED.  PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
Introduction 
------------ 
¶1. (SBU) U.S. Mission Nigeria warmly welcomes Congressman 
Henry "Hank" Johnson, Jr. and his delegation to Abuja.  Your 
visit comes three months into President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua's 
second year in office.  Though the President came to power 
through deeply flawed elections, he was initially praised by 
many Nigerians and the international community for his 
pledges to reform Nigeria's political system, improve the 
economy, and instill a culture of respect for the rule of 
law.  However, after more than a year of his administration, 
observers have grown restless to see Yar'Adua's positive 
rhetoric translate into tangible results.  A May 2008 opinion 
poll indicated that President Yar'Adua's popularity had 
dropped to approximately 48% from its high of over 70% in 
September 2007.  The Yar'Adua government inherited many 
serious challenges.  Decades of unaccountable rule suppressed 
Nigeria's democratic institutions, eroded health and 
education infrastructure, failed to combat HIV/AIDS, allowed 
polio to reemerge as a transnational health threat, and 
impoverished the population.  Revenues from crude oil, by far 
the country's most significant export, amount to just a 
dollar a day for each of Nigeria's 145 million people, and 
most of this has disappeared into the hands of a very small, 
corrupt elite.  An ongoing crisis in electricity generation 
and delivery has crippled the tiny manufacturing sector. 
Despite successful macroeconomic reforms in recent years, 
most Nigerians live in poverty.  Stability and security in 
the North (where most of Nigeria's estimated 70 million 
Muslims live) and the oil and gas-producing Niger Delta 
region are challenged by poor governance, corruption, and 
communal conflict.  The people of Nigeria are starting to 
lose patience, and the Yar'Adua administration is under 
significant pressure to make needed reforms soon. 
 
Politics of the Moment 
---------------------- 
¶2.  (SBU) Nigeria had its third consecutive general election 
in April 2007, and in May 2007 President Yar'Adua of the 
ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) assumed office.  The 
transition from Olusegun Obasanjo to Umaru Yar'Adua was the 
first successful civilian-to-civilian transfer of power in 
Nigeria's history: a noteworthy achievement.  However, most 
independent foreign and domestic observers agreed that the 
election which brought Yar'Adua to power was deeply flawed. 
Two opposition candidates filed challenges to the outcome, 
and although President Yar'Adua's election was upheld in 
February 2008 by the Presidential Election Tribunal, his 
challengers have appealed that decision to the Supreme Court. 
 It is not certain when the Supreme Court will rule on the 
case, though many observers suggest it may be as late as 
October 2008.  Until the conclusion of the election 
challenge, President Yar'Adua's tenure in office is not truly 
secure, and this may be affecting his government's 
performance. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The President himself has admitted that his election 
was flawed, and in August 2007 he established a 22-member 
Electoral Reform Commission (ERC) which is charged with 
making recommendations to improve future elections in 
Nigeria.  The USG as well as several other donor partners 
have helped fund technical assistance workshops for the ERC. 
The ERC was somewhat quiet during its first six months, but 
has become more visible during the past four months and 
conducted a series of public hearings around the country in 
June.  The ERC is expected to present its findings this 
month.  However, many observers believe that even if the 
President is genuinely committed to electoral reform, he will 
not take any significant actions on that front until the 
challenge to his own election has concluded and his tenure is 
secured. 
 
¶4. (U) Both the National Assembly and the courts have enjoyed 
greater freedom from executive interference under Yar'Adua 
than his predecessor.  The National Assembly has used this 
freedom to hold hearings on areas of concern, including 
 
ABUJA 00001593  002 OF 005 
 
 
suspicious sales of land by the government in the Federal 
Capital Territory (FCT) and lack of improvement in the power 
supply despite the previous government's allocation of 
billions of dollars for power projects.  The National 
Assembly seems to be taking its oversight role more 
seriously, though the institution is still quite weak in 
comparison to the executive branch.  The Assembly is very 
interested in building relationships with the U.S. Congress 
as it looks to develop institutional capacity.  The Nigerian 
judiciary has been lauded by the public for its increasing 
independence.  Courageous judges have overturned ten 
(counting Cross River) gubernatorial elections and dozens of 
National Assembly seats.  However, some cases are still 
before the courts, and there are some credible allegations of 
bribery of certain judges in other cases; in addition, all of 
Nigeria's criminal courts are seriously backlogged. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Part of President Yar'Adua's pledge to instill 
respect for the rule of law is continuing Nigeria's 
anti-corruption efforts, which are most visibly led by the 
Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).  Though many 
observers were pleased that the EFCC seemed invigorated in 
the early days of the administration, bringing charges 
against six former governors and investigating many other 
former governors and high-ranking former public officials, 
progress has slowed since early 2008.  The government removed 
the internationally recognized head of the EFCC, Nuhu Ribadu, 
in late December 2007.  The President appointed a new EFCC 
Chairwoman, Farida Waziri, in May 2008.  Although two former 
governors under former President Obasanjo have been charged 
since Waziri took the helm, lack of action on some of the 
cases noted above have called into question the GON,s 
commitment to pursue corrupt officials. 
 
Nigeria's Role on the World Stage 
--------------------------------- 
¶6.  (U) Nigeria is a major contributor to African 
peacekeeping initiatives.  It currently has troops in Sudan 
and Liberia externally and internal deployments to the Chad 
border and Niger Delta areas.  The GON has also pledged to 
send a battalion to Somalia, though discussions on the 
modalities of making this happen continue.  Nigeria is the 
major African player in the Economic Community of West 
African States(ECOWAS), and the headquarters of the regional 
organization is in Abuja.  On the other hand, Nigeria is also 
the greatest impediment to ECOWAS-led trade liberalization. 
Nigeria has the largest population in Africa (current 
estimate: 145 million) and rightly sees itself as a leader 
not only in the continent but in world affairs.  Nigeria has 
campaigned for United Nations reform and believes it deserves 
a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.  President 
Yar'Adua had a very positive visit to Washington in December 
2007, which included a White House meeting with President 
Bush.  He visited France and South Africa in June 2008.  Both 
President Yar'Adua and Foreign Minister Maduekwe also 
traveled to Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt for an African Union 
Summit meeting at the end of June 2008.  Both the President 
and the Foreign Minister made public statements in June 2008 
calling for free and fair elections in Zimbabwe, and on July 
21, President Yar'Adua was quoted in press reports saying 
that Nigeria did not recognize the June 27 run-off election 
of Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe.  According to the 
media reports, Yar'Adua stated that Nigeria is committed to 
rule of law within the country and throughout the continent. 
 
Africa Command in Nigeria 
------------------------- 
¶7. (U) Press coverage of DoD's Africa Command (AFRICOM) in 
Nigeria was markedly negative until early this spring.  In 
the months immediately following the announced establishment 
of AFRICOM, local media repeatedly described the Command as a 
USG effort to militarize Africa, and more specifically, 
Nigeria.  AFRICOM was also described as a sort of security 
cooperation agreement similar to NATO.  On January 30, the 
Ambassador held a press briefing to engage the media and help 
clear up any misperceptions about AFRICOM. The response from 
the press was substantial, generating significant positive 
media coverage on the U.S. policy priorities of AFRICOM. 
 
ABUJA 00001593  003 OF 005 
 
 
Since the January 30 press briefing, there has been a 
positive shift in the media about the perception of AFRICOM's 
mission, from a view of the Command as solely for offensive 
military operations, to now seeing it as more of a 
cooperative engagement between partners on overall 
military-to-military activities, humanitarian assistance, 
capacity building and technical assistance programs. Although 
senior officials in the GON have quietly expressed support 
for AFRICOM; they also highlighted the need for the USG to 
educate the Nigerian public and other government officials on 
the specifics of the Command.  Members of the Nigerian House 
of Representatives Committee on Defense have shared similar 
misconceptions about AFRICOM, claiming approximately 85% of 
the legislators in the current National Assembly do not 
understand what the Command is intended to do.  The 
legislators, however, have expressed interest in a dialogue 
on the subject of AFRICOM and have urged the USG to build a 
stronger bilateral military relationship with Nigeria. 
 
Niger Delta 
----------- 
¶8. (U) For several years, armed groups have attacked 
individuals and property in the volatile Niger Delta region. 
Upon assuming office, President Yar'Adua pledged to make 
resolving the Niger Delta crisis a top priority.  He 
acknowledged the need for greater security, infrastructure 
development, and job creation in the oil-producing region and 
pledged to hold a Niger Delta summit early in his 
administration. One year later, that summit has not yet 
happened, though plans are under way for a "Consultative 
Steering Committee" to begin discussions on the Niger Delta. 
UN official Ibrahim Gambari, a Nigerian citizen who agreed to 
take leave from his position as UN Undersecretary General to 
lead the discussions,  ended up withdrawing from the position 
of Committee Chairman on July 10 due to pressure from Niger 
Delta stakeholders.  A new Chairman has yet to be appointed 
and it is unclear when this Committee will begin to meet.  In 
the meantime, attacks by criminals or armed groups (some of 
whom claim to be part of an amorphous umbrella group called 
MEND ) the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta) 
on pipelines, oil platforms, and other infrastructure as well 
as kidnappings of both Nigerians and expatriates continue to 
disrupt oil production.  On June 19, a group of militants 
attacked Shell's Bonga field 75 miles offshore of Bayelsa 
State.  The attack shut-in the field's production 
(approximately 200,000 barrels per day); in a related 
incident, the same group kidnapped an American citizen. 
(Note: The American was released by his captors the next day. 
 End Note.)  Another group blew up an oil pipeline near 
Chevron's Escravos terminal on June 21, temporarily halting 
120,000 barrels per day of production.  Reports are that 
Nigeria is losing approximately $84 million per day on 
shut-in oil production.  On June 23, a spokesman claiming to 
represent the fractious MEND sent a message to the press 
claiming it is ready to begin a "unilateral cease fire" until 
further notice. 
 
The Economy/Global Food Crisis 
------------------------------ 
¶9. (U) The Yar'Adua administration inherited solid 
macroeconomic figures and over the last 12 months those 
figures have stayed steady.  According to the International 
Monetary Fund (IMF), Nigeria's real GDP growth was 6% in 
2006, and 6.3% in 2007, with 9% forecast for 2008.  Inflation 
remained in the (high) single digits until last month, when 
it hit 12% due to increases in food and fuel prices.  The 
Central Bank and Finance Ministry are looking to an expected 
bumper harvest to dampen food prices and return inflation to 
below ten percent by the end of the year.  Fiscal restraint 
has been maintained in the 2008 budget. Despite strong 
macroeconomic figures, the trade regime and investment 
climate have not improved.  Nigeria has failed to uphold its 
commitments to the World Trade Organization and continues to 
have high tariffs and bans on a number of imports, including 
agricultural products and packaging materials.  Job creation 
and new investment are still hampered by infrastructure 
problems, legal barriers to market access, high interest 
rates and lack of investor confidence in the rule of law. 
 
ABUJA 00001593  004 OF 005 
 
 
 
¶10. (U) Though there have not yet been major food shortages 
in Nigeria, prices for staples such as rice, maize, and 
millet have doubled since December 2007.  High world prices 
for commodities are compounded by shrinking production in 
Nigeria due to lack of fertilizer, and trade policies that 
either ban outright the import of staple food items or impose 
high import tariffs on agricultural products.  However, in 
May 2008 the GON agreed to lift the duty on imported rice for 
a six month period and released funds for the purchase of 
500,000 metric tons of rice.  As expected, this has improved 
supply and at least temporarily reduced rice prices in the 
country. 
 
PEPFAR Nigeria 
-------------- 
¶11. (U) Nigeria is the third-largest focus country for the 
President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). 
PEPFAR/Nigeria is jointly directed by USAID, CDC, and DOD and 
the program is implemented by over 40 partners.  In 2008, 
PEPFAR/Nigeria is receiving nearly $450 million to increase 
access to anti-retroviral therapy, prevention activities, and 
HIV-related care throughout the country.  As of April 2008, 
USG-funded implementing partners are providing treatment to 
150,000 Nigerians.  Over the last 5 years, more than 2.5 
million Nigerians have received HIV counseling and testing 
services from PEPFAR-supported programs.  The PEPFAR/Nigeria 
team has put significant effort into building the capacity of 
local NGOs and proudly counts 10Nigerian NGOs among its 
partners. PEPFAR/Nigeria and its partners work in close 
collaboration with the GON to implement PEPFAR and helped 
prepare the recent submission of the country's Global Fund 
Round 8 proposal. 
 
Other Foreign Assistance Priorities and Activities 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
¶12. (U) The U.S. foreign assistance program in Nigeria is 
crafted to meet the strategic goals of accountable 
governance, economic growth and prosperity, a healthy and 
well-educated population, and peace and security through best 
practices development programs that enhance the image of the 
United States.  To establish firmer foundations for 
democratic governance in Nigeria, the USG promotes 
partnerships between state and local governments and civil 
society to improve public expenditure management, public 
procurement, and service delivery at the local level; 
strengthen legislative institutions and build their capacity 
to combat corruption; support the Electoral Reform Committee 
to consult with Nigerian stakeholders and draft electoral 
reform legislation; and increase the capacity of civil 
society organizations and the media to press for targeted 
policy reforms, focusing on extractive industries and 
anti-corruption.  To grow the economy and build livelihoods, 
the USG program promotes Intellectual Property Rights and 
strengthens the international framework that supports trade 
and investment.  The program expands the pool of credit and 
investment open to individuals and small enterprises; 
improves the policy environment for agriculture; increases 
market-driven agricultural productivity and rural incomes to 
reduce dependence on food imports; and supports policy 
reforms to ensure that constraints affecting micro and small 
enterprise operations and competitiveness are eased. 
 
¶13. (U) Given high child mortality rates, soaring population, 
and poor educational quality, assisting Nigeria to improve 
the lives of its people is central to the USG program. 
Tuberculosis and malaria prevention and treatment, routine 
immunizations against childhood illnesses, including polio, 
and increased access to maternal and newborn health 
interventions help reduce the annual burden of a million or 
more preventable young child deaths.  (Note: Nigeria is one 
of only four remaining countries with endemic polio, and this 
is of particular concern because Nigeria's rate of infection 
is growing, many transmissions are of the more virulent "type 
1" strain, and Nigeria is exporting cases to other African 
countries.  President Yar'Adua and many other political and 
traditional leaders are aware of the problems with polio 
eradication and are engaged on the issue.  In addition to 
 
ABUJA 00001593  005 OF 005 
 
 
supporting vaccination programs, the USG continues to engage 
the government and traditional leaders to encourage Nigeria's 
polio eradication efforts.  End Note.) USG programs expand 
access to quality voluntary family planning services to 
reduce population growth.  USG assistance improves the 
quality of basic education by training teachers, providing 
instructional materials, and engaging community institutions 
such as parent-teacher associations.  We also address poor 
enrollment and attendance rates for girls in Northern 
Nigeria, and support the integration of secular subjects into 
the curriculum of Qur'anic schools. 
 
¶14. (U) Nigeria plays a significant role in African regional 
affairs through its leadership in the African Union, ECOWAS, 
and other regional efforts.  USG investments in peace and 
security help Nigeria sustain oil production, conduct 
peacekeeping operations, and deal with potential and actual 
threats from terrorism, narcotics, and money laundering 
activities.  Conflict mitigation and reconciliation 
activities target vulnerable youth and provide for interfaith 
mediation, focusing on the volatile Northern and Niger Delta 
regions of the country. 
 
¶15. (U) Partnership and collaboration with the GON, the 
private sector, civil society, and the donor community is a 
cornerstone of the USG approach.  In the coming year, the 
U.S. Mission to Nigeria will sign Memoranda of Understanding 
with reform-minded states and will focus development 
interventions primarily in those states, integrating our 
efforts and our strategic approach with those of the World 
Bank and the UK's Department for International Development. 
Over the next five years, we expect to leverage both private 
sector resources and host country contributions to achieve 
our foreign assistance objectives in Nigeria. 
PIASCIK