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RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHVL #0564/01 2000725
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 180725Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY VILNIUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2533
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 VILNIUS 000564 
 
AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - July 18, 2008 
 
¶1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy 
Minsk. 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
- Opposition Youth Expelled (para. 2) 
- Demonstration Dispersed and Opposition Leader Beaten    (para. 3) 
- United Civic Party Youths Jailed (para. 4) 
- Human Rights Advocate Jailed (para. 5) 
- Chernobyl Initiatives Center Denied Registration (para. 6) 
- Opposition Members to Sit on Precinct Commissions (para. 7) 
- Three Opposition Activists Released (para. 8) 
- Opposition Activists Remain Jailed after Bombing (para. 9) 
 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
- Belarus May Temporarily Limit or Ban Food Exports (para. 10) 
- Belarus Partially Liberalizes Stock Market (para. 11) 
- Foreign Investment Insufficient to Meet Ambitious Goals (para. 
12) 
- Savings Accounts in Belarusian Banks Grow Rapidly (para. 13) 
 
International Trade 
------------------- 
 
- Gazprom Threatens to Sue Beltransgaz for Incomplete Payments 
(para. 14) 
- Belarus to Export $30 million in Fertilizers to U.S. (para. 15) 
 
Quote of the Week (para. 16) 
----------------- 
 
------------- 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
¶2.  Opposition Youth Expelled 
 
Baranovichy State University expelled fourth-year engineer student 
Ales Kravchenya on July 14.  The administration warned Kravchenya 
over his political activities after his administrative arrest and 
fine in March 2008.  In an interview with a local newspaper, the 
activist also vehemently criticized local authorities for their 
youth and civil policies. 
 
¶3.  Demonstration Dispersed and Opposition Leader Beaten 
 
On July 14, the special task forces dispersed a demonstration of 
approximately 50 opposition members in central Minsk and beat United 
Civic Party Leader Anatoly Lebedko.  The opposition was protesting 
the July 3 bombing-related searches and arrests of the democratic 
activists.  Lebedko sought medical assistance for his injuries and 
reported chest, abdominal, and leg haematomas.  The Interior 
Ministry dismissed the reports about Lebedko's beating maintaining 
he "fell and lay on the ground" and was dressed "a vagabond". 
 
¶4.  United Civic Party Youths Jailed 
 
On July 11, a Minsk district court sentenced United Civic Party 
youth activists Mikhail Pashkevich and Vitaly Stozharov to 15 days 
in jail and Kirill Pavlovskiy to 10 days in jail on minor 
hooliganism charges.  The police apprehended three activists on July 
11, and human rights advocates linked arrests with the July 3 
bombing as well as upcoming parliamentary elections. 
 
¶5.  Human Rights Advocate Jailed 
 
On July 16, the police forcefully transferred Vitebsk-based human 
rights lawyer Pavel Levinov from a hospital to a jail to serve a 
10-day sentence.  A judge sentenced Levinov on May 26 to 
imprisonment and a fine of 700,000 rubles (USD 330) for minor 
hooliganism and disobeying police orders.  Levinov unsuccessfully 
appealed the verdict and stated he was hospitalized July 15 after "a 
clash" with police officers. 
 
¶6.  Chernobyl Initiatives Center Denied Registration 
 
On July 16, the Justice Ministry (MOJ) denied registration to the 
Center for Chernobyl Initiatives Support.  The MOJ alleged the NGO's 
charter conflicted laws and not all of its members attended the 
founding convention.  Leader of the Center and National Academy of 
Sciences professor Ivan Nikitchenko dismissed all the claims and 
pledged to appeal the denial in the Supreme Court. 
 
¶7.  Opposition Members to Sit on Precinct Commissions 
 
Central Election Commission Secretary Nikolay Lozovik announced on 
 
VILNIUS 00000564  002 OF 003 
 
 
July 15 that 42 members of opposition groups, including 38 
representatives of political parties, were elected to the 110 
precinct electoral commissions.  Human rights groups and independent 
observers welcomed more opposition activists in commissions at 2008 
parliamentary elections than during the polls in 2004. 
Nevertheless, they expressed concern over the lack of transparency, 
as the meetings of local authorities and council members were held 
behind closed doors. 
 
¶8.  Three Opposition Activists Released 
 
The BKGB released Sergey Vysotskiy, ex-chair of the Belarusian 
Freedom Party, Aleksandr Sergiyenko, United Civic Party member, on 
July 13, and Pavel Kuryanovich, European Belarus campaign activist, 
on July 12 without formal charges or explanations.  The three were 
arrested July 10 for interrogations about the bombing in central 
Minsk during Belarusian Independence Day festivities on July 3.  The 
police also searched activists' residences.  All three are currently 
not allowed to leave Belarus and have to arrive promptly for further 
questioning, should police summon them to do so. 
 
¶9.  Opposition Activists Remain Jailed after Bombing 
 
Approximately eight opposition activists reportedly remain in jail 
on July 3 bombing suspicion.  Members of the defunct Belarusian 
Union of Military Servicemen Viktor Leshchinskiy, Igor Korsak, 
Miroslav Lozovskiy, Sergey Chislov, unregistered Right Alliance 
member Yuri Karetnikov, Belarusian Popular Front members Iliya 
Bogdan and Anton Koypish, and opposition youth Tatyana Pekun were 
arrested on various dates starting July 9.  All the suspects will be 
held in custody for 10 days until being officially charged or 
released.  Human rights lawyers stressed at a press conference on 
July 11 that more unreported individuals could be detained in 
relation to the bombing.  They also noted that the suspects had been 
pressured to respond to all the questions and sign all the papers to 
expedite their release.  The Interior Ministry did not confirm the 
number of the detained suspects in the bombing case. 
 
---------------- 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
¶10.  Belarus May Temporarily Limit or Ban Food Exports 
 
On July 10, Belarus' government issued resolution 1001, which may 
temporarily limit or ban food exports from the country.  The 
resolution also lists such products.  The list includes meat, milk 
and milk products, grain, flour, beans, rapeseed, vegetable oil and 
animal food. Their supplies on the domestic markets will be 
constantly monitored.  The government believes this will help ensure 
food stability and avoid food shortages in Belarus. 
 
¶11.  Belarus Partially Liberalizes Stock Market 
 
On July 10, Belarus' government passed resolution 1002, which 
partially liberalizes the country's stock market starting on July 
¶17.  According to Finance Ministry's comments given to Prime-Tass 
news service, the resolution only allows selling and buying stocks 
of minority shareholders on the stock exchange.  Also, this applies 
to the limited number of joint stocks and the list has not been 
publicized yet.  The document also established that the margin 
cannot exceed 20 percent. 
 
¶12.  Foreign Investment Insufficient to Meet Ambitious Goals 
 
Speaking to the members of the Belarusian Union of Entrepreneurs and 
Employers on July 11, the Economy Ministry official said the 
government is not happy with the volume of foreign investment the 
country received in the first quarter.  USD 2.1 billion foreign 
investment (of which USD 0.6 billion was FDI) made only 3.2 percent 
of the total volume of investment.  At present, Belarus ranks 110th 
on the list of economies most attractive to foreign investment. 
Seeking to improve the situation, as Lukashenko set the goal of 
joining top 30 in less than three years, the government drafts 
regulations on investment and venture funds.  It also plans to hold 
Belarus' investment forum in London in November. 
 
¶13.  Savings Accounts in Belarusian Banks Grow Rapidly 
 
According to the data received by Prime-Tass news service from 
Belarus' National Bank on July 16, money on Belarusians' savings 
accounts in domestic banks have grown through June by 19 percent to 
the record high USD 5.9 billion.  The plan set by the government for 
the country's banking system in 2008 is to secure a growth of up to 
USD 1.7 billion.  In the first six month the number was USD 940 
million.  On June 14, president Lukashenko signed into law a bill, 
which guarantees starting next year an offset of up to Euro 5 
thousand on a savings account in a Belarusian bank in case of its 
insolvency. 
 
------------------- 
 
VILNIUS 00000564  003 OF 003 
 
 
International Trade 
------------------- 
 
¶14.  Gazprom Threatens to Sue Beltransgaz for Incomplete Payments 
 
According to various news agencies, Russia's Gazprom threatened July 
16 to sue Belarus' Beltransgaz if it continues to pay USD 119 rather 
than USD 128 per one thousand cubic meters of natural gas supplied 
to Belarus. While Gazprom sticks to the price agreement signed by 
both sides in December 2006 and based on European prices, the 
Belarusian side seeks to negotiate prices for this and next year and 
threatens to increase transit prices for Gazprom.  The price, which 
had been USD 46 before January 2007, is expected to increase to USD 
200 in January 2009. 
 
¶15.  Belarus to Export $30 Million in Fertilizers to U.S. 
 
According to Prime-Tass news service, Belarusian Potassium Company 
"Belaruskaliy" signed an agreement earlier this month on the supply 
of 30,000 tons of fertilizers to the U.S. at a price of USD 1,000 
per ton.  The company also won tenders to supply 30,000 tons to 
Bangladesh and 40,000 tons to Sri Lanka. 
 
----------------- 
Quote of the Week 
----------------- 
 
¶16.  Speaking in Minsk at the reception in honor of the graduates of 
a few military academies on July 15, Lukashenko said: "Economic 
sanctions against our country, political pressure and speculations 
on freedom and democracy issues contradict the principles of good 
neighborhood and cooperation." 
 
He also said that "certain politicians in the West keep calling 
openly for the non-constitutional change of power in Belarus and 
imposition of the Western model of the so-called democracy." 
 
He believes "the goal of such activities is to destabilize the 
situation, annihilate the political system, subdue the sovereign 
state to the forces, which seek to establish a unipolar world." 
 
MOORE 
CLOUD