VZCZCXRO0558
PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #2000/01 2000809
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 180809Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5949
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAWJA/USDOJ WASHDC PRIORITY
RULSDMK/USDOT WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5//
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHMHBA/COMPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI
RHMFIUU/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI//CC/PA//
RHMFIUU/USFJ //J5/JO21//
RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA
RUAYJAA/CTF 72
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 1307
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 8933
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 2662
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 7143
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 9516
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 4445
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 0435
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0837

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 13 TOKYO 002000 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/18/08 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Poll on Fukuda cabinet, political parties, G-8 summit, North 
Korea (Asahi) 
 
(2) Poll on Fukuda cabinet, political parties, new healthcare system 
for elderly, North Korea delisting, G-8 summit, consumption tax 
(Yomiuri) 
 
(3) Poll on Fukuda cabinet, political parties, G-8 summit, 
consumption tax (Mainichi) 
 
(4) Sankei-FNN poll on Fukuda cabinet, political parties, G-8 summit 
(Sankei) 
 
(5) Competition for resources on its way: Foreign capital investment 
returns to Iraqi oil fields after hiatus of 36 years (Mainichi) 
 
(6) New Komeito in quandary over how to distance itself from prime 
minister, unhappy about low public support for cabinet, while 
falling in step on policies (Asahi) 
 
(7) Japan must rid itself of sense of dependence on the United 
States (Sankei) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Poll on Fukuda cabinet, political parties, G-8 summit, North 
Korea 
 
ASAHI (Page 4) (Full) 
July 15, 2008 
 
Questions & Answers 
(Figures shown in percentage, rounded off. Bracketed figures denote 
proportions to all respondents. Figures in parentheses denote the 
results of the last survey conducted June 14-15.) 
 
Q: Do you support the Fukuda cabinet? 
 
Yes 24 (23) 
No 58 (59) 
 
Q: Why? (One reason only. Left column for those marking "yes" on 
previous question, and right for those saying "no.") 
 
The prime minister is Mr. Fukuda 15(4) 5(3) 
It's an LDP-led cabinet 31(7) 21(12) 
From the aspect of policies 24(6) 61(36) 
No particular reason 26(6) 11(6) 
 
Q: Which political party do you support now? 
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 26 (22) 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 24 (22) 
New Komeito (NK) 2 (4) 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 2 (2) 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 1 (1) 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0 (0) 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0 (0) 
Other political parties 0 (0) 
None 40 (41) 
 
TOKYO 00002000  002 OF 013 
 
 
No answer (N/A) + don't know (D/K) 5 (8) 
 
Q: The Group of Eight (G-8) decided in its Hokkaido Toyako summit 
meeting this time to call on the world to halve by 2050 its CO2 and 
other greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming. The G-8 
and other countries, including China and India, held a meeting after 
that and then agreed to the necessity of setting a target for 
greenhouse gas emissions cuts without touching on how far to reduce 
greenhouse gas emissions. Do you support the outcome of the talks 
this time? 
 
Yes 32 
No 53 
 
Q: China, India, and other newly emerging countries were asked to 
take on the obligation to reduce their CO2 emissions, but they 
insisted that developing countries should first set a goal for 
substantial cuts in their CO2 emissions. Is this assertion 
convincing? 
 
Yes 37 
No 50 
 
Q: Prime Minister Fukuda presided over the G-8 summit this time. Do 
you think he displayed leadership as its chair? 
 
Yes 24 
No 60 
 
Q: North Korea declared its nuclear programs in response to requests 
from relevant countries. Do you appreciate this North Korean 
response? 
 
Yes 16 
No 76 
 
Q: In response to North Korea's nuclear declaration, the U.S. is now 
in the process of delisting North Korea as a state sponsor of 
terrorism. Do you appreciate this U.S. response? 
 
Yes 17 
No 71 
 
Q: How do you think delisting North Korea as a state sponsor of 
terrorism will affect the issue of Japanese nationals abducted to 
North Korea in resolving this issue? 
 
It will have a good impact 4 
It will have a negative impact 51 
It will have no impact 30 
 
Q: Raising the consumption tax is a major theme in discussing tax 
reform. Do you think it is necessary to raise the consumption tax? 
(Figures in parentheses are the results of a survey taken in 
November 2007.) 
 
Yes 44 (43) 
No 47 (49) 
 
Q: About raising the consumption tax, Prime Minister Fukuda said: 
"This is an important time when I must make up my mind." Later on, 
he explained, "I think it would take a couple of years or more." Do 
 
TOKYO 00002000  003 OF 013 
 
 
you appreciate this stance? 
 
Yes 24 
No 65 
 
Q: How much do you appreciate Mr. Ozawa for what he has said and 
done as DPJ president? (One choice only) 
 
Very much 1 
Somewhat 35 
Not very much 45 
Not at all 16 
 
Q: Which one between Prime Minister Ozawa and DPJ President Ozawa do 
you think is appropriate for prime minister? 
 
Mr. Fukuda 37 
Mr. Ozawa 28 
 
Polling methodology: The survey was conducted July 12-13 over the 
telephone on a computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD) basis. 
Respondents were chosen from among the nation's voting population on 
a three-stage random-sampling basis. Valid answers were obtained 
from 1,975 persons (57 PERCENT ). 
 
(2) Poll on Fukuda cabinet, political parties, new healthcare system 
for elderly, North Korea delisting, G-8 summit, consumption tax 
 
YOMIURI (Page 11) (Full) 
July 15, 2008 
 
Questions & Answers 
(Figures shown in percentage. Parentheses denote the results of a 
survey taken in June.) 
 
Q: Do you support the Fukuda cabinet? 
 
Yes 26.6 (25.1) 
No 61.3 (63.4) 
Other answers (O/A) 3.3 (2.7) 
No answer (N/A) 8.9 (8.8) 
 
Q: Which political party do you support now? Pick only one. 
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 27.2 (26.0) 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 18.8 (20.5) 
New Komeito (NK) 2.8 (2.8) 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 1.9 (2.6) 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 0.8 (0.9) 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0.1 (0.3) 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0.1 (---) 
Other political parties --- (0.1) 
None 47.8 (46.0) 
N/A 0.5 (0.7) 
 
Q: If an election were to be held now for the House of 
Representatives, which political party would you like to vote for in 
your proportional representation bloc? 
 
LDP 25.6 
DPJ 26.9 
NK 3.2 
 
TOKYO 00002000  004 OF 013 
 
 
JCP 2.3 
SDP 1.4 
PNP 0.5 
NPN 0.2 
Other political parties --- 
Undecided 38.9 
N/A 0.9 
 
Q: The government has now introduced a new healthcare system, under 
which elderly people are also asked to shoulder the burden of 
insurance premiums so that young generations will not be 
overburdened. Do you appreciate this system? 
 
Appreciate very much 9.2 
Appreciate somewhat 29.6 
Don't appreciate very much 32.9 
Don't appreciate at all 25.5 
N/A 2.7 
 
Q: What do you think the government should do about this new 
healthcare system? 
 
Maintain it as is 9.1 
Lighten its burden 45.5 
Abolish it and create a new system 42.1 
O/A 0.4 
N/A 3.0 
 
Q: North Korea has now promised to reinvestigate the pending issue 
of Japanese nationals abducted to North Korea, and the government 
will therefore ease some of its economic sanctions on North Korea. 
What do you think about this? Pick only one that is closest to your 
view from among those listed below. 
 
Japan may do so if North Korea's reinvestigation goes down with the 
Japanese government 11.4 
The government should decide whether to do so after seeing the 
outcome of North Korea's reinvestigation 45.2 
Japan should not do so 39.7 
O/A 0.3 
N/A 3.4 
 
Q: The U.S. has designated North Korea as a state sponsor of 
terrorism and has taken economic sanctions on North Korea. However, 
the U.S. will delist North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism in 
the wake of North Korea's declaration of its nuclear programs. Do 
you think this U.S. decision is convincing? 
 
Yes 12.7 
No 80.3 
N/A 7.0 
 
Q: The Group of Eight (G-8) summit held this time at Lake Toya in 
Hokkaido focused on global warming and other environmental issues. 
Do you appreciate the G-8 summit on the whole? 
 
Appreciate very much 8.4 
Appreciate somewhat 35.4 
Don't appreciate very much 36.2 
Don't appreciate at all 15.3 
N/A 4.8 
 
 
TOKYO 00002000  005 OF 013 
 
 
Q: There is an opinion saying it is unavoidable to raise the 
consumption tax in order to maintain pension and other social 
security systems. Do you agree to this opinion? 
 
Yes 20.2 
Yes to a certain degree 26.9 
No to a certain degree 20.7 
No 30.7 
N/A 1.5 
 
Q: Prime Minister Fukuda has indicated that he would consider 
raising the consumption tax rate in the next two or three years in 
order to secure financial resources for social security. Do you 
appreciate it? 
 
Appreciate very much 6.7 
Appreciate somewhat 29.1 
Don't appreciate very much 33.0 
Don't appreciate at all 28.5 
N/A 2.6 
 
Q: Which one between Prime Minister Fukuda and DPJ President Ozawa 
do you support when you see their respective approaches to political 
issues? 
 
Prime Minister Fukuda 35.9 
DPJ President Ozawa 32.4 
N/A 31.7 
 
Polling methodology 
Date of survey: July 12-13. 
Subjects of survey: 3,000 persons chosen from among all eligible 
voters throughout the country (at 250 locations on a stratified 
two-stage random sampling basis). 
Method of implementation: Door-to-door visits for face-to-face 
interviews. 
Number of valid respondents: 1,828 persons (60.9 PERCENT ). 
 
(3) Poll on Fukuda cabinet, political parties, G-8 summit, 
consumption tax 
 
MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full) 
July 15, 2008 
 
Questions & Answers 
(T = total; P = previous; M = male; F = female) 
 
Q: Do you support the Fukuda cabinet? 
 
 T P M F 
Yes 22 (21) 23 20 
No 54 (60) 60 50 
Not interested 21 (17) 15 27 
 
Q: (Only for those who answered "yes" to the above question) Why? 
 
 T P M F 
Because the prime minister is from the Liberal Democratic Party 27 
(36) 27 26 
Because something can be expected of the prime minister's leadership 
7 (9) 9 6 
Because there's something stable about the prime minister 32 (28) 29 
 
TOKYO 00002000  006 OF 013 
 
 
35 
Because something can be expected of the prime minister's policy 
measures 21 (15) 24 18 
 
Q: (Only for those who answered "no" to the above question) Why? 
 
 T P M F 
Because the prime minister is from the Liberal Democratic Party 6 
(7) 8 4 
Because nothing can be expected of the prime minister's leadership 
34 (31) 32 36 
Because there's no fresh image about the prime minister 6 (5) 6 7 
Because nothing can be expected of the prime minister's policy 
measures 50 (54) 49 51 
 
Q: Which political party do you support? 
 
 T P M F 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 22 (21) 23 21 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 25 (25) 31 20 
New Komeito (NK) 5 (4) 3 6 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 3 (4) 2 4 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 2 (1) 1 2 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0 (1) 1 0 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0 (0) -- 0 
Other political parties 0 (1) 1 0 
None 40 (40) 35 43 
 
Q: The Group of Eight (G-8) summit held at Lake Toya in Hokkaido 
agreed to halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 as a goal to be 
shared. Do you think Prime Minister Fukuda displayed leadership as 
its chair? 
 
 T P M F 
Yes 27  25 28 
No 62  67 59 
 
Q: What's your evaluation of Prime Minister Fukuda after the G-8 
summit? 
 
 T P M F 
Improved 5  6 4 
Worsened 7  7 8 
Unchanged 83  83 83 
 
Q: Are you affected in your daily lives by rising prices for crude 
oil and grains? 
 
 T P M F 
Very much 52  50 54 
Somewhat 36  38 34 
Not very much 6  7 5 
Not at all 1  1 1 
 
Q: There are now discussions on the advisability of raising the 
consumption tax rate to secure financial resources for social 
security. Do you approve of raising the consumption tax? 
 
 T P M F 
Yes 30  39 22 
No 61  53 67 
 
 
TOKYO 00002000  007 OF 013 
 
 
(Note) Figures shown in percentage, rounded off. "0" indicates that 
the figure was below 0.5 PERCENT . "--" denotes that no respondents 
answered. "No answer" omitted. Figures in parentheses denote the 
results of the last survey conducted June 14-15. 
 
Polling methodology: The survey was conducted July 12-13 over the 
telephone across the nation on a computer-aided random digit 
sampling (RDS) basis. Answers were obtained from 1,060 persons. 
 
(4) Sankei-FNN poll on Fukuda cabinet, political parties, G-8 
summit 
 
SANKEI (Page 5) (Full) 
July 15, 2008 
 
Questions & Answers 
 
(Note) Figures shown in percentage. Figures in parentheses denote 
findings from the last Sankei-FNN survey conducted June 14-15. 
 
Q: Do you support the Fukuda cabinet? 
 
Yes 21.7 (22.0) 
No 61.2 (61.3) 
Don't know (D/K) + Can't say which (CSW) 17.1 (16.7) 
 
Q: Which political party do you support? 
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 23.0 (24.0) 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 29.0 (24.6) 
New Komeito (NK) 4.6 (3.5) 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 3.5 (4.4) 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 1.5 (2.0) 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0.5 (0.5) 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0.1 (0.0) 
Other answers (O/A) 1.0 0.7 
None 35.6 (39.0) 
D/K + Can't say (C/S) 1.2 (1.3) 
 
Q: Do you appreciate Prime Minister Fukuda and his cabinet on the 
following points? 
 
Personal character 
Yes 45.3 (46.2) 
No 44.9 (42.4) 
D/K+CSW 9.8 (11.4) 
 
Foreign policy 
Yes 17.8 (24.7) 
No 66.0 (53.7) 
D/K+CSW 16.2 (21.6) 
 
Response to healthcare, pension issues 
Yes 12.9 (11.0) 
No 77.5 (79.9) 
D/K+CSW 9.6 (9.1) 
 
Policy toward North Korea 
Yes 14.9 (22.1) 
No 71.9 (61.9) 
D/K+CSW 13.2 (16.0) 
 
 
TOKYO 00002000  008 OF 013 
 
 
Q: The Group of Eight (G-8) summit held at Lake Toya in Hokkaido for 
this year agreed to share a global target of halving greenhouse gas 
emissions by 2050. Do you appreciate this? 
 
Yes 52.5 
No 36.9 
D/K+CSW 10.6 
 
Q: There is an argument insisting that the G-8 summit should involve 
China, India, and other newly emerging economies. Do you agree to 
this argument? 
 
Yes 77.2 
No 14.3 
D/K+CSW 8.5 
 
Q: What would you like Prime Minister Fukuda and his government to 
pursue on a priority basis? 
 
Fiscal policy to cut down on waste 38.8 (37.1) 
Social security, including healthcare and pension systems 26.4 
(27.7) 
Economic measures, including price stabilization 14.3 (13.5) 
Tax reform, including the consumption tax 4.7 (5.9) 
Global warming 4.6 (4.8) 
Consumer administration 3.8 (2.6) 
Public security 2.6 (2.9) 
North Korea 1.8 (2.9) 
D/K+C/S 3.0 (2.6) 
 
Q: When would you like the next election to take place for the House 
of Representatives? 
 
Right now 15.3 
Within this year 34.4 
During the first half of next year 28.0 
During the latter half of next year 15.3 
D/K+C/S 7.0 
 
Polling methodology: The survey was conducted July 12-13 by the 
Sankei Shimbun and Fuji News Network (FNN) over the telephone on a 
computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD) basis. For the survey, a 
total of 1,000 persons were sampled from among men and women aged 20 
and over, across the nation. 
 
(5) Competition for resources on its way: Foreign capital investment 
returns to Iraqi oil fields after hiatus of 36 years 
 
MAINICHI (Page 3) (Excerpts) 
July 18, 2008 
 
It has been five years and a half since the outbreak of the Iraq 
war, which was once dubbed a "war for the sake of oil." In order to 
begin full-scale reconstruction of the country, the Iraq government 
late last month decided to allow foreign companies to participate in 
the development of the nation's oil and gas fields. Four Japanese 
companies will likely join the projects. The return of foreign 
capital investment to Iraq's oil industry comes after a hiatus of 36 
years, the gas and oil-fields having been nationalized in 1972. Iraq 
plans to increase its oil output to 500,000 barrels a day over a 
short period of time and to bring production up to 1.5 million 
barrels by 2013. It will start by bringing in state-of-the-art 
 
TOKYO 00002000  009 OF 013 
 
 
technology to revive oil fields that have been repeatedly ravaged by 
war. International competition to gain access to resources in Iraq, 
which has the third largest oil reserves in the world, has only just 
begun. 
 
In approving foreign participation, the Iraq government has focused 
mainly on European and American oil majors to develop six oil 
fields, including the Rumaila oil field in southern Iraq and the 
Kirkuk oil field in the northern part. There also are two gas 
fields, including Akkas, to be developed. Thirty-five companies have 
obtained rights to bid on the projects. The winners would sign 
tentative contracts by next June. 
 
Foreign capital penetration of Iraq could affect other Middle 
Eastern countries that now reject such a presence in their oil 
markets. Oil production output by Iran is growing at a sluggish pace 
due to insufficient repairs and inspections of oil fields. Given the 
surging price of crude oil, the oil-producing countries are eager to 
boost income by increasing production. An official of Global 
Insight, a U.S.-British research company, expressed high hopes, "The 
case this time could become a model case for having the technology 
of international majors used by other oil producing countries in the 
Middle East." 
 
However, the Iraqi people remain highly distrustful of European and 
U.S. companies coming in, with one official noting, "The U.S. 
military launched war with an eye on obtaining our oil." There 
remains a possibility of attacks on oil-related facilities 
increasing again. 
 
Money pouring into the market from speculators anticipating future 
increases in oil demand has been a major factor contributing to the 
steep rise in crude oil prices, a phenomenon that started last 
year. 
 
Iraq's decision follows Saudi Arabia's late June announcement that 
it plans to increase oil production. Some market players hoped that 
such moves could put an end to surging crude-oil prices. 
 
Domestic confrontation over distribution of protests 
 
Iraq exports 2.1 million barrels of crude oil a day. The value of 
those exports in 2008 is estimated to reach $60-80 billion due to 
the steep rise in crude oil prices. The amount well exceeds the 
nation's national budget ($46.8 billion). 
 
There continue to be domestic disputes over ownership of rights. 
Some huge oil fields are concentrated in the Shiite-dominated 
southern part of Iraq and in the northern part, adjacent to the 
region inhabited by the Kurds. There are few oil fields in the 
Sunni-dominated region. 
 
The Iraq government, realizing that if confrontation between 
religious sects and ethnic groups grows deeper, the country will 
become divided again and face another crisis, adopted at a cabinet 
meeting in February 2007 a new petroleum bill featuring the central 
government uniformly managing profits on oil exports. However, the 
Kurds opposed this decision, so there is no prospect for the bill to 
be enacted. 
 
Oil Minister Al-Shahristani appearing on a TV program in Iraq in 
mid-June underscored, "Attacks on pipelines have fallen from an 
 
TOKYO 00002000  010 OF 013 
 
 
average of 30 times per month last year to only four times this 
year." In particular, attacks on pipelines between Kirkuk and 
Ceyhan, Turkey, have decreased. 
 
Iraqi forces have been endeavoring to restore order, assisted by 
U.S. forces, as can be seen in the tougher crack-downs since late 
March on Shiite Muslim militias in such areas as Basra, where large 
oil fields are concentrated. 
 
Japan desperate to take part in exploration projects, saying that 
Iraq is an indispensable partner 
 
Japan dispatched Ground Self-Force personnel to Samawah from January 
2004 through July 2006. The Air Self-Defense Force is still engaging 
in airlifting operations between Kuwait and Iraq. Japan remains 
desperate to secure oil interests. 
 
Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) Minister Akira 
Amari, suddenly visited Iraq, flying in on an SDF plane June 25, 
five days before the Iraqi government decided which companies could 
bid for contracts. He strongly urged the Baghdad to allow Japanese 
companies to take part in its projects, stressing that Iraq is 
"Japan's indispensable partner." Characterizing Iraq as a key 
country for Japan's resource diplomacy, METI has been working to 
arrange Amari's visit to Iraq since the beginning of this year and 
only realized it at the last moment. 
 
Four Japanese companies -- Mitsubishi Corporation, ENEOA, JAPEX and 
INPEX -- will take part in the bidding. They will likely take part 
in cooperation with the oil majors. 
 
Iraq is pinning its hopes on Japan's reconstruction assistance. In 
order to back Japanese companies' bid to participate in Iraq's oil 
and gas development projects, it may be necessary for the government 
to come up with even more reconstruction assistance measures than 
ever. 
 
(6) New Komeito in quandary over how to distance itself from prime 
minister, unhappy about low public support for cabinet, while 
falling in step on policies 
 
ASAHI (Page 4) (Full) 
July 18, 2008 
 
The New Komeito has been in a quandary over how to distance itself 
from Prime Minister Fukuda. The ruling coalition partner of the 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has implemented policies in step with 
Fukuda, who appreciates the party's policies. But some party members 
are now calling for a change of prime minister due to the low public 
support for the Fukuda Cabinet. In an informal meeting of its local 
assembly members yesterday, participants raised doubts about the 
party continuing to be the junior partner of the coalition. Such 
views might cast a pall over the next general election. 
 
"90 PERCENT  of New Komeito's policies implemented" 
 
The meeting at New Komeito headquarters yesterday brought together 
39 members of municipal, ward, and town assemblies in Eastern Japan. 
A municipal assemblyman from the Tohoku District told President Ota, 
Deputy President Toshiko Hamayotsu, and other executive members: "Is 
it all right for our party to go down with the LDP's sinking ship?" 
 
 
TOKYO 00002000  011 OF 013 
 
 
One participant said that the government has not responded to 
complaints about skyrocketing commodity prices and increased burden 
of medical and nursing care costs. The atmosphere in the meeting was 
oppressive. Since the meeting was aimed at listening to requests 
from local assembly members, the executives gave no replies, but 
President Ota emphasized to reporters after the meeting: "It is 
essential to give top priority to matters related to livelihood of 
the people." 
 
Since its inauguration, the Fukuda administration has implemented 
one New-Komeito requested policy after another. The government 
promptly took measures to ban cluster bombs and to make public 
elementary and middle school buildings quake-resistant in response 
to requests by the New Komeito. 
 
According to a New Komeito member, "Fukuda, who has taken a pro-Asia 
policy, has views closer to those of the New Komeito than any other 
previous prime minister. Seeing Ota frequently talking with Fukuda 
on his cell phone, a New Komeito lawmaker called Ota "a virtual 
special advisor to the prime minister." A mid-ranking lawmaker 
commented: "The Prime Minister's Office implements exactly what the 
New Komeito requests about 90 PERCENT  of the time." 
 
Joint downfall concerned 
 
Despite such a situation, dissatisfaction is emerging among local 
assembly members, because the New Komeito's ties with Fukuda are 
seen as excessively close. On July 2, former President Takenori 
Kanzaki said: "It is still unknown that the House of Representatives 
will be dissolved under Mr. Fukuda or under a successor to Mr. 
Fukuda, for whom public support remains low," indicating that there 
might be a change of prime minister. He also expressed his fear that 
the New Komeito could go down together with the prime minister. 
 
A House of Representatives member who will have to run against a 
member of the Democratic Party of Japan in a single-seat 
constituency in the next Lower House election said in a state of 
panic: "I don't think public support for the Fukuda Cabinet will 
ever go up even if the administration does something very nice. I do 
not want to campaign for the next Lower House election under Prime 
Minister Fukuda. No matter how many policies the LDP and the New 
Komeito jointly implement, if the government falters, the New 
Komeito will also falter." 
 
Under such a circumstance, some New Komeito members are expecting 
realignment of the political world after the next Lower House 
election. The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has also begun to make 
eyes at the New Komeito, as seen from its start of considering the 
possibility of submitting a bill to give the right to vote to 
foreigners, which the New Komeito has long been calling for. One 
junior member said: "If some DPJ and LDP members form a new party, 
we will find it easier to join it." 
 
One participant in the meeting yesterday said meaningfully: "Mr. 
Fukuda is the LDP president. We as New Komeito members must make 
efforts to steadily translate our policies into action. We are not 
thinking at all about whether to approach to the LDP or the DPJ." 
 
(7) Japan must rid itself of sense of dependence on the United 
States 
 
SANKEI (Page 13) (Abridged) 
 
TOKYO 00002000  012 OF 013 
 
 
July 18, 2008 
 
By Kenichi Ito, president, Japan Forum on International Relations 
 
Following North Korea's nuclear declaration to China, chair of the 
six-party talks, President George W. Bush announced on June 26 that 
the United States would delist the North as a state sponsor of 
terrorism. The decision has triggered strong mistrust of the United 
States among the Japanese people, who now feel that the abduction 
issue has been left behind. 
 
But to begin with, there was no guarantee that the United States 
would give foremost consideration to Japan in making its decision. 
Raising mistrust of the United States comes from Japan's excessive 
dependence on that country and a lack of realism. 
 
Japan must review its own mindset. Any country uses both carrots and 
sticks in talks on diplomatic and military issues. Japan has been 
leading an easy life as a pacifist nation by abandoning sticks and 
war potential under the pretext of Article 9 of the Constitution and 
by shifting its own responsibility to the United States. 
 
(On June 10), a Taiwan fishing boat sank after colliding with a 
Japan Coast Guard vessel during a chase in waters south of the 
disputed Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands. Japan consequently apologized and 
promised compensation, while a high-ranking Taiwan official said he 
would not rule out war with Japan over the islets. 
 
(On August 16, 2006), a Japanese fisherman was shot dead by the 
Russian coastguard when his boat strayed into waters near the 
disputed islands off Hokkaido. But Russia did not offer an apology 
or compensation for it. 
 
Is Japan's pacifism genuine? 
 
The Japanese people have known all along that carrot-oriented 
foreign and defense policies do not work, and that is why they have 
expected the United States to use sticks on behalf of Japan. Japan 
should not take the United States for granted just because it is its 
ally. Further, Japan cannot expect the United States to take action 
over the Senkakus and the northern territories. 
 
Japan must grow into a normal country. 
 
Is the pacifism of Japan which heavily relies on the United States 
authentic? The truth is not only the United States but the whole 
world is fed up with Japan's pacifism. It is about time the Japanese 
people realized it. 
 
The world's strategic environment has drastically changed in the 
21st century. This is described in my book Shin Sensouron (On New 
War) as the advent of a no-war era. It does not mean it will be a 
peaceful era. Rather, it signifies an era of conflict instead of 
war. 
 
21st century no-war community 
 
In the no-war era, mankind has to deal with new threats distinct 
from those of the war era. 
 
An international no-war community is being formed centering on 
Western democracies based on the foundation distinct from the 
 
TOKYO 00002000  013 OF 013 
 
 
alliances and balance of power of the war era. The no-war community 
is designed to jointly deal with such new threats as rogue states, 
international terrorists, and failed states. 
 
The Group of Eight sits at the center of it. The United States has 
encouraged China to become a responsible stakeholder -- meaning to 
join the no-war community. There is growing momentum in the world to 
establish regional security forums. 
 
The Foreign Affairs July/August issue carries U.S. Secretary of 
State Condoleezza Rice's article spelling out her desire to develop 
the six-party framework into a Northeast Asian Peace and Security 
Mechanism. She apparently eyes linking it to the global no-war 
community. 
 
Ruled by enigmatic dictator Kim Jong Il, North Korea is a rogue 
state, and its outrageous acts must be defined as crimes rather than 
as war. The international community must continue guiding this rogue 
state onto the right path by using both carrots and sticks. Will 
Japan be able to play a proactive role in the process as an 
international member? To the no-war community of the 21st century, 
it is essential for Japan to be able to use not only carrots but 
also sticks. 
 
ZUMWALT