VZCZCXRO9108
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHTV #1535/01 1981445
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 161445Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7549
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001535 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER LE IS
SUBJECT: ISRAEL EXCHANGES 5 HIZBALLAH PRISONERS FOR BODIES 
OF ABDUCTED IDF SOLDIERS 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: Earlier today, July 16, Hizballah 
delivered the bodies of abducted IDF soldiers Ehud Goldwasser 
and Eldad Regev to Israel via the Rosh Hanikra border 
crossing.  In exchange, Israel released convicted Lebanese 
murderer Samir Kuntar and four Hizballah militants captured 
during the 2006 Israel-Hizballah conflict, and handed over 
the remains of 199 Lebanese and Palestinian infiltrators and 
militants.  Future stages of the agreement call for Israel to 
release an undisclosed number of Palestinian prisoners and 
deliver a report on the fate of four Iranian diplomats who 
disappeared during Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon.  In the 
first stage of the deal, last week, Hizballah delivered a 
lengthy but ultimately inconclusive report on the fate of 
missing Israel Air force navigator Ron Arad.  In the wake of 
today's exchange, the IDF has gone on high alert along the 
northern border amid fears that Hizballah might take 
advantage of the post-exchange period to make good on its 
threat to avenge the assassination of Imad Mugniyah by 
sending commandos to raid an Israeli town or abduct another 
IDF soldier.  End summary. 
 
-------- 
The Deal 
-------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) As reported widely in the press, beginning at 9:00 
local time today, July 16, Israel and Hizballah initiated a 
multi-stage prisoner exchange under the auspices of the ICRC. 
 The exchange, which concluded eight hours later at the Rosh 
Hanikra border crossing between Israel and Lebanon, started 
with the delivery to Israel of the bodies of abducted IDF 
soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev (whose July 12, 2006 
abduction sparked that summer's conflict between Israel and 
Hizballah).  After the remains were confirmed as those of 
Goldwasser and Regev, the IDF delivered convicted Lebanese 
national and Palestinian Liberation Front militant Samir 
Kuntar and four Hizballah fighters captured in the 2006 
conflict to the ICRC for transport across the border and into 
Lebanon.  The IDF also released the bodies of 199 Lebanese 
and Palestinian militants and infiltrators killed during 
various conflicts with Israel over the years. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) While today's dramatic exchange on the 
Israel-Lebanon border marks the centerpiece of the 
GOI-Hizballah deal brokered by a German mediator, the 
agreement also includes the following additional elements, 
which were endorsed by the Israeli Cabinet on June 29 and 
upheld by a second Cabinet vote July 15: 
 
-- Hizballah agreed to deliver a report on the fate of 
missing Israel Air Force navigator Ron Arad, who was shot 
down of Lebanon in 1986. (Note: The report on Arad was 
delivered to Israel last week.  While PM Olmert and other GOI 
officials expressed disappointment with the inconclusive 
nature of the report, they decided to continue with the 
exchange.) 
 
-- Israel will deliver to UNSYG Ban Ki-Moon information on 
the fate of four Iranian diplomats who disappeared during 
Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon. 
 
-- Following the implementation of the other clauses of the 
deal, Israel will release an undisclosed number of 
Palestinian prisoners.  In its June 29 decision, the Israeli 
Cabinet stressed that the "number and identities of the 
(Palestinian) prisoners will be determined at the sole 
discretion of the State of Israel." 
 
------------------------- 
Not a Day for Celebration 
------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Today's exchange is the culmination of a two-year 
effort by a UNSYG-appointed German mediator to secure the 
release of Regev and Goldwasser.  Only in the past few weeks, 
however, have mainstream Israelis begun to realize that the 
soldiers were probably no longer alive, and that the price 
for recovering their remains would include the release of 
notorious Lebanese terrorist Samir Kuntar, who was sentenced 
to life imprisonment for the brutal 1979 killing of an 
Israeli man and his 4 year-old daughter in their home in the 
northern Israeli town of Nahariya.  The decision to accept 
the agreement with Hizballah, announced June 29, was met with 
a mixture of outrage and resignation.  Israelis seem to 
generally accept the necessity of releasing Kuntar in order 
to resolve the fate of Goldwasser and Regev, but are angry 
that their government has traded living terrorists for dead 
soldiers.  PM Olmert's spokesman, Mark Regev, told BBC 
earlier today that while the GOI felt a "profound sense of 
obligation to bring the soldiers back," it was nevertheless 
"a difficult day for Israel."  "It's not a day for 
 
TEL AVIV 00001535  002 OF 002 
 
 
celebration, (as) we have been forced to release a 
particularly despicable person," he said.  In a statement 
released after his official pardon of Kuntar and the four 
Hizballah fighters yesterday, President Peres declared that 
"this decision in no way constitutes forgiveness to the 
murderer for his abominable and reprehensible crimes.  I 
neither forgive nor forget." 
 
---------- 
What Next? 
---------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The GOI has been very clear that it does not intend 
to use the German mediation channel to pursue any further 
indirect talks with Hizballah.  While Israeli officials, 
including PM Olmert, have stated in the past few weeks that 
they would welcome direct, full-spectrum talks without 
preconditions with the Lebanese government of PM Siniora, 
they have no interest in dealing with Hizballah once they 
have secured the release of Goldwasser and Regev.  The GOI 
also fears that Hizballah might take advantage of the 
post-exchange period to make good on its threats to avenge 
the assassination of Hizballah Operations Chief Imad Mugniyah 
(which Nasrallah blamed on Israel).  Fearing that a revenge 
attack could take place inside Israel itself, the IDF last 
week went on high alert along the northern border.  IDF and 
other security officials have told the press in recent days 
that Hizballah might be considering sending commandos to raid 
an Israeli border town or abduct another IDF soldier.  The 
IDF will likely maintain its heightened border posture 
throughout the coming days and perhaps weeks. 
 
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