VZCZCXRO3940
RR RUEHLMC
DE RUEHSN #0826/01 1921526
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 101526Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY SAN SALVADOR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9763
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAN SALVADOR 000826 
 
STATE PASS USAID/LAC 
STATE ALSO PASS USTR 
USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/MSIEGELMAN 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON SOCI ETRD EINV ES
SUBJECT: El SALVADOR 2007 CENSUS PUBLISHED, SHOWS 19% FEWER PEOPLE 
 
¶1. Summary. El Salvador's 2007 Census, published in May 2008, 
reduced the number of inhabitants of El Salvador by 19.2%, from 
previous projections of 7,104,999 to 5,744,113. This reduction in 
population increases per capita GDP from $2867.40 to $3547.21, 
raising El Salvador almost to an upper middle income country, and 
elevates the murder rate of El Salvador from 49.1 to 60.7 per 
100,000 inhabitants. Census data also showed around 96 percent of 
all Salvadorans have at least one relative abroad and around 20 
percent of households receive remittances.  El Salvador also showed 
steady improvement in life expectancy and literacy rates, though 
those indicators remain slightly below average for Latin America. 
End Summary. 
 
New Census Data 
--------------- 
 
¶2. The Government of El Salvador released its 2007 Census results on 
May 12, 2008. The 2007 Census decreases the number of inhabitants of 
El Salvador from previous projections of 7,104,999 to 5,744,113 
people. Overall, the population increased by 12.2% compared to the 
previous census performed in 1992.  El Salvador is supposed to 
conduct a census every ten years, but this latest census was 
postponed following the devastating 2001 earthquakes. The 2007 
census was funded by United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the 
Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), and the United States Census 
Bureau. The results of the census can be downloaded at 
http://www.censos.gob.sv/. 
 
Differences from Projections 
---------------------------- 
 
¶3. The census showed a 19.2% difference between the real data and 
the previous 2007 projections made based on the 1992 census. The 
largest reduction in population took place in the department (state) 
of San Salvador, including the capital. In San Salvador the number 
of inhabitants decreased from an estimated 2.3 million to only 1.6 
million, a 31% reduction. The only department that showed an 
increase in populations is Cuscatlan, which showed 6.9% growth to 
231,000. Even with the new figures, El Salvador remains the most 
densely populated country in continental America, with 273 persons 
per square kilometer. In the Americas, only Haiti and some Caribbean 
island states have a higher population density. 
 
¶4. Per Capita Income: The reduction in the number of inhabitants 
automatically increases El Salvador's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 
per capita from $2867.40 to $3547.21, raising El Salvador almost to 
the position of an upper middle income country.  (Note.  According 
to the World Bank's 2007 classifications, "upper middle income" 
includes those countries with a Gross National Income (GNI) per 
capita between $3,706 and $11,455.  Using preliminary 2007 figures 
for the World Bank's Atlas method of GNI, El Salvador's new GNI per 
capita would be $3,398).  End Note.) 
 
¶5. Murder Rates: The new population data also elevates the murder 
rates in the country. With 1992 census projections, the estimated 
homicide rate for 2007 was 49.1 per 100,000 inhabitants, but using 
the new population data this rate increases to 60.7 per 100,000 
inhabitants. The most violent department is San Salvador, where the 
rate is 84.7 per 100,000 inhabitants, followed by Santa Ana at 74 
per 1000,000 inhabitants. The department with the lowest homicide 
rate is Chalatenango, in the northern region of the country, at 17.1 
per 100,000. 
 
 
Population Distribution & Characteristics 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. The largest department continues to be San Salvador, which 
comprises 27.3% of total population (1,567,156 people). The second 
largest department is La Libertad with 11.5%, followed by Santa Ana 
with 9.1%. Around half (48%) of the Salvadoran population lives in 
those three departments. The least populated departments are 
Morazan, San Vicente, and Cabanas with 3%, 2.8%, and 2.6% of total 
population respectively. San Salvador has the highest population 
density at 1,768 inhabitants per square kilometer. About 63% of the 
population lives in urban areas, while about 37% lives in rural 
areas. 
 
¶7. According to the Census, 34% of the population is 15 years old or 
younger, 59.3% is between 15 and 64 years old, and 6.8% is 65 years 
old and older.  Around 47.3% of the population is men and 52.7% are 
women. The share of women is even higher for the population 15 years 
of age and older, were they represent nearly 55 % of the total. 
This is attributed to two factors.  First, a greater percentage of 
men migrate to the United State.  Second, men have a higher death 
rate. 
 
SAN SALVAD 00000826  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
Households Characteristics 
-------------------------- 
 
¶8. The Census counted a total of 1,406,485 households in El 
Salvador. The national average of inhabitants per house is 4.2; 
however, 6.4% of households have eight or more persons living under 
the same roof. There are around 1,668,227 houses in the country, 18% 
of which are abandoned. These abandoned houses are concentrated in 
certain departments, including La Union, Chalatenango, San Miguel 
and La Paz, and are attributed to the migration of complete family 
groups. 
 
¶9. According to household statistics, 88.4% of households have 
electricity and 77.6 percent have water service. This is up from 
1992, when around 69.3% had electricity and only 46.7% had water 
service. Around 78% of households have a television and 49.5% have a 
stereo.  Currently, about 63% of households and 68% percent of the 
population have a cell phone, while in 1992 only 10.8% of the 
population had a fixed phone line.  Around 65% of the population 
uses propane gas for cooking, while only 30% use firewood for 
cooking. (Note.  This is a reversal from the last census.  Propane 
gas is subsidized by the government, which explains the dramatic 
shift in consumption habits. End note.) 
 
 
Education & Health 
------------------ 
 
¶10. The illiteracy rate (for people older than 10 years old) has 
dropped from 23.9% in 1992 to 16% in 2007.  The city of San Salvador 
had the lowest illiteracy rate at 7.9%, while the department of 
Morazan had the highest at 28.8%. Average schooling years (at the 
national level) have also increased from 6.1 years in 1992 to 7.9 
years in 2007 (for people between 15 and 24 years old). 
 
¶11. In last year's (FY 08) Millennium Challenge CC Scorecard, El 
Salvador did not pass the Health Expenditures, Primary Education 
Expenditures or Girls' Primary Education Completion measurements of 
the Investing in People indicator basket. The lower population 
should, however, help El Salvador improve on some of those Investing 
in People indicators, once the relevant reports are updated. 
 
¶12. Life expectancy increased from 67.7 years in 1992 to 70.8 years 
in 2007. For men, life expectancy increased from 63 to 66 years, 
while for woman it grew from 72.7 to 75.5 years. The average number 
of children per woman decreased from 3.5 in 1992 to 2.4 in 2007. 
Infant mortality (number of deaths per one thousand per year) 
decreased from 40.9% in 1992 to 21.5% in 2007. 
 
Labor Force 
----------- 
 
¶13. The total labor force, classified as the working population over 
16 years of age, is 1,727,154 people.  It is distributed as follows: 
26.3% in Retail, Hotels and Restaurants, about 17% in Agriculture, 
Forestry, Fishing and Mining, 16% in the manufacturing, 15% in other 
services, 7.6% in construction, and 1.3% in the financial sector. 
 
Remittances 
----------- 
 
¶14. Around 96% of all Salvadorans have at least one relative that 
lives abroad and around 20 percent of the households receive 
remittances. Remittance receipts vary by department. In La Union, 
around 39% percent of the households receive remittances. In 
Chalatenango and Cabanas practically a third of the households are 
remittances recipients, 31 percent and 30 percent respectively. 
Other departments in which the households that receive remittances 
are relatively high are San Miguel, Usulutan, Morazan and San 
Vicente. The lowest remittances recipient department is Cuscatlan 
were only 12.2 percent of the households receive remittances. 
 
Electoral Implications 
---------------------- 
 
¶15. Under the Salvadoran Constitution, the number of Legislative 
Assembly deputies per department has to be proportional to the 
population. The current distribution is based in the 1992 Census, as 
established in the Electoral Code. Under 2007 Census figures, San 
Salvador would lose two deputies, and the Ahuachapan and La Libertad 
departments would gain one deputy each. 
 
¶16. In order to use the 2007 Census as a base, however, the 
Electoral Code has to be revised by the Legislative Assembly. The 
FMLN deputies have stated that they do not trust the results of the 
 
SAN SALVAD 00000826  003 OF 003 
 
 
census and ARENA deputies have stated that they will only support 
Electoral Code reform if all 84 deputies approve. 
 
¶17. The 2007 census also reveals some discrepancies between its 
figures and the figures of the electoral board. The census registers 
that only 60 percent of the population is over voting age (18) while 
the size of the electoral roster is equivalent to 71 percent of the 
population. Some municipalities now have more voters than residents 
while other municipalities have a very low number of voters. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶18. The release of the Census had been delayed several months, and 
the revised population figures create a number of potential 
difficulties for the Government of El Salvador (GOES).  First, the 
substantial increase in per capita GDP is likely to adversely affect 
inflows of international aid, especially if El Salvador moves from a 
lower middle income country to an upper middle income country. 
Though, measurements based on per capita spending, such as for 
education and health programs, should benefit from the lower 
population numbers.  Second, the revised, higher crime statistics 
may undercut the GOES's attempts to show both voters and 
international investors that it is addressing the public security 
problem.  Third, the discrepancies with the electoral rolls suggest 
that the electoral board has done a poor job of maintaining voter 
lists and tracking migration, an issue sure to be raised by the 
loser if the 2009 election results are close.  Finally, the lower 
population indicates far higher levels of cross-border migration 
than previously thought. 
 
 
Glazer