O 020421Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY RANGOON
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7862
AMEMBASSY BANGKOK IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU IMMEDIATE 
USMISSION GENEVA IMMEDIATE 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 
INFO NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS RANGOON 000528 
 
AIDAC 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, PRM, DRL 
STATE ALSO PASS TO USAID 
AID/W FOR DCHA/FFP AND DCHA/OTI 
AID/W FOR DCHA/OFDA KLUU, ACONVERY, RTHAYER 
BANGKOK FOR DCHA/OFDA WBERGER AND TROGERS 
KATHMANDU FOR DCHA/OFDA SMCINTYRE AND MROGERS 
USMISSION GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
USMISSION USUN FOR FSHANKS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID SENV KSCA TBIO VM EAGR PREF
SUBJECT:  BURMA CYCLONE: USAID/OFDA POST NARGIS JOINT ASSESSMENT 
CABLE 
 
REF A): RANGOON 514, REF B) RANGOON 499 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.   Following the May 25 International Pledging Conference, the 
Tripartite Core Group (TCG) coordinating body initiated the 
Post-Nargis Joint Assessment (PONJA) to produce a common assessment 
report that covers immediate humanitarian needs through the Village 
Tract Assessment (VTA) and reconstruction needs by means of the 
Damage and Loss Assessment (DALA).  On June 24, the TCG released 
information on several important sectors from the VTA at a meeting 
with the international donor and response community.  The 
preliminary report was based on only 60 percent of the household 
data and 50 percent of the key informant findings from the 
assessment.  Some donors and humanitarian agencies are concerned 
that the lack of available baseline data may lead the survey to 
confuse acute emergency and transitional needs with chronic needs 
better addressed by long-term development programs.  Most major 
donors agree with the USAID/OFDA team that there may be a protracted 
need for food assistance, but that issues such as food security and 
shelter are best addressed by helping disaster-affected people 
reestablish livelihoods.  As the cyclone response in Burma shifts 
from the acute emergency phase to early recovery, USAID/OFDA is 
prioritizing livelihoods interventions to provide quick access to 
income and employment for affected populations.  End Summary. 
 
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OVERVIEW OF THE PONJA 
----------------------- 
 
¶2. The TCG was formed after the May 25 ASEAN-U.N. International 
Pledging Conference in Rangoon.  The TCG's stated objective is to 
"facilitate trust, confidence, and cooperation between Myanmar and 
the international community" for the relief effort.  The nine-member 
TCG includes three representatives each from the Government of Burma 
(GOB), the U.N., and ASEAN. 
 
¶3. Following the May 25 conference, the TCG initiated the PONJA to 
produce a common assessment report that covers immediate 
humanitarian needs through the VTA and reconstruction needs by means 
of the DALA.  The PONJA took place from June 10 to 20, involving 350 
officials and volunteers from the GOB, ASEAN, and the U.N., and 
supported by the World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB), and local 
and international non-governmental organizations (NGOs).  After a 
two-day training in data gathering methodologies, 245 VTA staff and 
85 DALA staff were deployed for the assessments, supported by 20 
staff in a coordination office in Rangoon.  The PONJA report will be 
published in Rangoon and submitted to the ASEAN Foreign Ministerial 
Meeting July 20-21 in Singapore.  The results will also inform the 
U.N.'s revised appeal to be issued July 10, 2008. 
 
¶4. The VTA focuses on the relief and early recovery needs of the 
cyclone-affected population.  The U.N. is the lead agency for the 
VTA, through the Humanitarian Coordinator's Office, the U.N. Office 
for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, and the Myanmar 
(Burma) Information Management Unit.  More than 20 GOB personnel 
from 18 ministries were involved in the assessment process at the 
central Rangoon coordination office, hub coordination offices, and 
in the field. 
 
¶5. The VTA was designed to assess five percent of total villages in 
the affected townships and provide results spatially.  The survey 
covered 30 townships, with approximately 1,300 village tracts and 
6,000 villages.  Data was compiled from June 21 to 23, and 
preliminary findings were released on June 24 at a special meeting 
of the ASEAN roundtable.  The final VTA input into the PONJA report 
is due on July 3. 
 
¶6. The DALA focuses on estimating financial needs for longer-term 
reconstruction.  The ASEAN Emergency Rapid Assessment Team is the 
lead for the DALA, with assistance from the World Bank, the ADB, and 
the World Bank-managed Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and 
Recovery (GFDRR).  The GFDRR's mission is to mainstream disaster 
risk reduction and assess disaster losses, in order to reduce 
vulnerabilities to natural hazards. 
 
 
¶7. The DALA primarily used secondary data, much of which was 
obtained by the GOB.  The methodology used was based on the U.N. 
Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)'s Manual for 
Estimating the Socio-Economic Effects of Natural Disasters.  The 
ECLAC approach is designed to evaluate the impact of disasters in 
situations where little reliable quantitative information is 
available, to guide post-disaster rehabilitation and reconstruction 
processes.  The approach has been in use for over 30 years. 
 
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EVALUATION OF THE INITIAL PONJA DATA 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶8. Limited access to the cyclone-affected areas and the consequent 
inability to do early assessments engendered a desire within the 
U.N. system to validate response initiatives undertaken to date. 
The international community was also anxious to get information as 
quickly as possible from the first comprehensive assessment of the 
affected areas.  Therefore, on June 24 ASEAN, the UN and the GOB 
released preliminary information on several important sectors from 
the VTA at a meeting with the international donor and response 
community. 
 
¶9. At the June 24 meeting in Rangoon, the VTA assessors reported 
that 45 percent of households have received food through 
humanitarian assistance, while 56 percent have obtained food from 
the markets.  Initial VTA data also indicated that 60 percent of 
households reported that access to clean water is inadequate, and 22 
percent of households noted suffering from psychological stress. 
The cyclone severely damaged 59 percent of houses in affected areas, 
according to the initial data.  Approximately 60 percent of village 
leaders stated that there were not enough seeds for the next 
planting season and 78 percent of households reported a lack of 
access to credit.  The preliminary report, however, was based on 
only 60 percent of the household data and 50 percent of the key 
informant findings from the assessment.  Some donors and 
humanitarian agencies are concerned that the lack of available 
baseline data may lead the survey to confuse acute emergency and 
transitional needs with chronic needs better addressed by long-term 
development programs. 
 
¶10. In addition, due to the rapid assessment process, there was also 
little context or nuance to the questions asked in the VTA.  The 
ambiguity in the information released so far has allowed different 
humanitarian organizations to infer both that the response phase has 
passed and that there is a need for a continuing and protracted 
relief effort.  In addition, the sectoral cluster leads have not 
been able to develop definitive data on what has already been done, 
what is being done, or will be done in the near future that will 
address the needs and gaps identified in the survey.  Donors want to 
avoid pressure to provide additional, unnecessary relief commodities 
that might divert funds from early recovery programs. 
 
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USAID/OFDA TRANSITION STRATEGY 
------------------------------ 
 
¶11.   To date, findings from the PONJA assessments are consistent 
with USAID/OFDA assessments that rebuilding efforts are underway in 
the Irrawaddy Delta and markets are rebounding.  The VTA identified 
only five villages that had not received any assistance, which was 
immediately rectified.  In addition, the lack of prolonged 
displacement, establishment of an early warning health surveillance 
system, use of rainfall collection systems for drinking water, and 
quick interventions in shelter, health and water, sanitation and 
hygiene sectors so far appear to have prevented significant disease 
outbreaks above seasonal norms.  The humanitarian community's 
priorities are to continue monitoring the situation, to provide 
targeted emergency interventions when and where needs are 
identified, and to support early recovery programs, such as 
providing inputs to restart agricultural and non-agricultural 
activities. 
 
¶12. USAID/OFDA programs will continue to target the emergency needs 
of the most vulnerable population through September 2008.  As the 
emergency phase winds down and the early recovery phase begins, 
however, the program focus will shift to livelihood activities that 
provide quick access to income and productive employment. 
USAID/OFDA intends to fund programs in the following areas: 
 
-Provision of agricultural inputs to households with the ability to 
plant during the planting season, which runs from mid-July to 
mid-August, in areas where planting during the current season is 
still viable.  Inputs may include seeds, tools, tillers or draught 
animals, and cash to hire laborers.  (Note:  Most major donors agree 
with the PONJA assessment that there may be a protracted need for 
food assistance.  The extent of such assistance will largely depend 
on the accomplishment of recovery activities and the degree of 
success farmers have during the upcoming planting season.  End 
Note). 
 
-Support to landless laborers to include Cash-For-Work (CFW) 
programs and direct support programs such as backyard gardens and 
tree crops. 
 
-Support for non-agricultural livelihood activities, including 
fishing, salt panning, forestry, small trades, and manufacturing. 
Such activities will be designed to restore livelihood activities 
that existed prior to the cyclone and to avoid significant movement 
of labor into new activities. 
 
-CFW programs to support small-scale infrastructure repair projects 
and debris clearance.  CFW activities will be designed to support 
and reinforce other early recovery objectives. 
 
¶13. Once the full data from the VTA is released and analyzed, the 
USAID/OFDA team will review programming requirements and redirect 
activities to meet any identified gaps.  Until then, the USAID/OFDA 
team's programming priority will be to meet the urgent requirement 
for seeds and tools to support the upcoming planting season. 
 
¶14. The USAID/OFDA early recovery strategy and planned activities 
are consistent with the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization 
assessment report, the U.N. Development Program guidelines for early 
recovery, the early recovery cluster strategy, the interagency cash 
working group, and assessment reports drafted by USAID and U.S. 
Embassy Rangoon officers. 
 
VILLAROSA