R 081437Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5001
INFO AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 
AMCONSUL DURBAN 
AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG 
AMEMBASSY GABORONE

UNCLAS PRETORIA 001474 
 
 
DEPT FOR OES/PCI, OES/ENV, AND AF/S 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV SOCI SF
SUBJECT: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation in 
Kwazulu-Natal Province 
 
¶1.  Summary.  EST Officer met with KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) Department of 
Agriculture and Environmental Affairs (DAEA) Environmental Services 
(South Region) Manager Sharon Allan to discuss climate change 
impacts, adaptation and mitigation within KZN province, with an 
emphasis on the eThekwini Municipality (metropolitan Durban and 
suburbs).  EThekwini Municipality commissioned a 2004 climate change 
study which predicted serious climate change impacts, including 
temperature variations and extreme changes in rain and sea levels. 
Allan noted that erosion and sea level rises have already caused 
negative impacts in the northern suburbs.  EThekwini has identified 
65,000 hectares of open space available for carbon capture. 
EThekwini has several existing climate change adaptation programs, 
including the Water and Sanitation Water Loss Management Project, 
the Waste Water Education program, and the Coastal Storm Water and 
Catchment Management programs.  The Parks, Leisure and Cemeteries 
Department, the Working for Water Program and the Environmental 
Management Department (EMD) have partnered to control and eradicate 
alien invasives.  End summary. 
 
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EThekwini Facing Climate Change Impacts 
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¶2.  A 2004 climate change study by the eThekwini Department of 
Agriculture and Environmental Affairs (DAEA) predicted that daily 
maximum temperatures in the region will increase 2-3 degrees Celsius 
within the next twenty years.  Daily minimum temperatures will 
increase 3-4 degrees Celsius; heat waves over 30 degrees Celsius 
will occur during the summer season (October to March).  The study 
noted that rain will increase in certain areas, causing heavy floods 
while other areas will experience longer dry periods, resulting in 
drought.  The study advised that sea levels will rise 2.5 cm every 
ten years. 
 
¶3.  The DAEA study predicted that extreme heat would cause major 
negative health impacts on young and old and that increased 
rainfalls would amplify incidents of vector-borne diseases (e.g., 
malaria) and water-borne diseases (e.g., cholera).  The study said 
that cities should expect decreased water supplies due to 
diminishing water levels in dams resulting from irregular rainfall 
and increased evaporation.  The study advised that high 
temperatures, declining water availability and increasing water 
evaporation would reduce agricultural productivity and intensify 
topsoil erosion while extreme rainfall in other areas would cause 
flooding.  The study concluded that ecosystems favoring indigenous 
species could be severely compromised due to erosion, floods, sea 
level rises and the proliferation of alien species.  The report 
noted that sea level rises and increased flooding would impact 
infrastructure, including residences and key industries located in 
low-lying areas. 
 
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EThekwini Already Experiencing Negative Impacts 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶4.  EST Officer met with KwaZulu Natal (KZN) Department of 
Agriculture and Environmental Affairs (DAEA) Environmental Services 
(South Region) Manager Sharon Allan to discuss climate change 
impacts, adaptation and mitigation within KZN Province, with an 
emphasis on the eThekwini Municipality (metropolitan Durban and 
suburbs) on March 31, 2008.  Allan advised that infrastructure and 
housing in the Durban northern suburbs had already experienced 
Qhousing in the Durban northern suburbs had already experienced 
damaging erosion from climate events.  She emphasized that the 
disastrous March 2007 weather events could reoccur at any time. 
(Note.  In March 2007 three cyclones in the Indian Ocean created an 
extreme cut-off, low-pressure system while a simultaneous extreme 
high-tide event occurred.   That weather combination resulted in 
damage to homes, business and infrastructure in the Durban area, and 
brief closure of the city's economic hub - its port.  End Note.) 
 
¶5.  Allan said the first step in resolving climate challenges is 
acknowledging their existence.  She noted that the city had 
commissioned several greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions studies.  A 2006 
study estimated that the eThekwini municipal area emitted 17.8 
million tons of CO2 per year, which is five percent of South 
Africa's total CO2 emissions.  Industry, commerce and local 
agriculture sources account for 53% of all emissions, 26% derive 
from transport, and local government accounts for 3%.  Electricity, 
predominantly from coal-burning power plants, causes more than half 
of all emissions.  According to a 2007 report, "renewable energy is 
almost non-existent in Durban. 
 
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Sequestration Activities in eThekwini 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  Allen said eThekwini has considered sequestration and storage 
for CO2, identifying 65,000 hectares of available open space, 
including grasslands, wetlands, beaches, rivers and estuaries. 
Allan said the vegetation and soils of these open spaces has been 
inventoried and found to capable of storing 6.6 million tons of 
carbon, or 24.3 million tons of CO2.  Allan noted that some of these 
open systems grow biomass, which the city estimates sequesters about 
31,000 tons of CO2 per year. 
 
¶7.  The eThekwini Environmental Management Department (EMD) is 
implementing the eThekwini Environmental Services Management plan 
(EESMP) which seeks to expand open spaces within the city.  Allan 
notes that these open spaces provide ecosystem services such as 
erosion prevention, storing and filtering water, and city cooling. 
These services will be even more important if the temperature rises 
as predicted. 
 
 
¶8.  Allen noted that many of the mature spaces may have reached 
saturation and are not capable of storing additional carbon. 
Predicted future changes in temperature and rainfall could cause 
some ecosystems to sequester carbon at higher or lower rates.  (FYI. 
Wetlands store large amounts of carbon because organic material 
decomposes slowly in waterlogged soil due to the lack of oxygen.  As 
wetlands dry out they lose this ability.  End FYI.) 
Allen noted that approximately 58 percent of the municipality's 
carbon pool is stored on land that could potentially be developed. 
Protecting these areas will become increasingly important, as well 
as rehabilitating land infested with alien species. 
 
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Mitigation Activities in eThekwini 
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¶9.  Allen commented that sequestration will never alleviate the 
entire region's CO2 output.  She said the area must consider 
mitigation.  Allen noted that the city planners have advised that 
the adoption of an efficient public transport system and the use of 
renewable energy would be the most effective mitigation techniques. 
Allen said the city has conducted energy audits for municipal 
buildings and implemented air conditioning cut-backs, reducing 
energy use by more than fifteen percent. 
 
¶10.  Allen emphasized that eThekwini's landfills produce large 
amounts of methane gas (CH), which is stronger than GHG.  Allen 
noted that methane is highly flammable and flared periodically to 
prevent methane build-ups, which produces CO2.   Allen advised that 
the energy produced by flaring at Marianhill, La Mercy and Bissar 
Road landfills is converted into electricity (approximately 10 MW). 
Credits for these reductions are sold internationally via the Kyoto 
Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). 
 
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Adaptation Activities in eThekwini 
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¶11.  Allen noted that eThekwini has several existing climate change 
adaptation programs.  The eThekwini Water and Sanitation (EWS) Water 
Loss Management Project improves water pressure control, and 
conducts leak surveys.  The EWS Waste Water Education program 
educates communities about preventing sewage blockages and leaks. 
Allan advised that EWS programs also encourage water recycling and 
filtering to make water suitable for drinking or agriculture.  Allan 
said EWS promotes water storage and rainwater catchment areas, and 
is developing systems that use grey-water (used water) for toilets. 
EWS now requires that all new developments use low flush toilets. 
Allan commented that EWS is completing an assessment of the effects 
QAllan commented that EWS is completing an assessment of the effects 
that increased heat, storms and sea levels will have on water 
provision and the sanitation infrastructure with a view towards 
making recommendations on where infrastructure upgrades or 
relocations should be made. 
 
¶12.  Allan advised that eThekwini Coastal Storm Water and Catchment 
Management (ECSCM) is reassessing areas vulnerable to flooding using 
predicted future rainfall.  ECSCM requires storm water management 
plans for all new developments.  Allan said that ECSCM hopes to 
prevent further development in areas that would be affected by 1:50 
year storms and 50-year, sea-level rises.  ECSCM is developing flood 
prevention and emergency response plans to meet climate change 
scenarios. 
 
¶13.  Allan said the eThekwini Urban Agricultural Programs (EUAP) 
support community farming initiatives and promote workshops on the 
use of drought-resistant crops, erosion prevention and efficient 
water use.  The Parks, Leisure and Cemeteries Department, the 
Working for Water Program and the EMD have partnered to control and 
eradicate alien invasives, which often use excessive water, degrade 
local soils, out-compete indigenous species, and lead to degraded 
habitats. 
 
¶14.  Allan said the Health Department has predicted that more areas 
will be vulnerable to malaria and early identification of these 
areas will help target malaria prevention programs, including 
mosquito eradication.  The KZN Health Department is also working to 
secure sustainable energy and clean water sources for healthcare, 
and to identify the size and distribution of groups within the city 
that are vulnerable to climate change impacts (children, elderly, 
and immune-compromised).  Allen noted that the KZN Health Department 
hopes to develop city-wide heat emergency plans and to initiate 
education campaigns about heat stress and environmental problems 
associated with excessive heat. 
 
¶15.  Allen noted that eThekwini would like to ensure that new or 
upgraded infrastructure such as roads, electricity lines or 
landfills are not located in floodplains and that builders use 
construction materials appropriate for increased temperatures.  She 
indicated that the municipality should also prevent new developments 
in potentially hazardous areas by rezoning those areas. 
 
 
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Comment: First Steps Taken; More Remains To Be Done 
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¶16.  Comment:  eThekwini has done a commendable job in acknowledging 
and assessing potential climate change impacts.  Preliminary steps 
have been taken, but more concrete actions will be needed, 
especially if the predicted health and infrastructure impacts become 
a reality.  The real test will come when development and industry 
come into direct conflict with climate change priorities and 
assessments.  The March 2007 environmental and economic damages 
caused by a convergence of climatic events should serve as a 
reminder of what can happen if nothing is done.  End comment.