VZCZCXRO0144
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHPF #0629/01 2130949
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 310949Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PHNOM PENH 000629 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS, P, D, DRL, INR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM PINR CB
SUBJECT: CAMBODIA'S NATIONAL ASSEMBLY-ELECT: SOMETHING OLD, 
SOMETHING NEW, SRP VERY BLUE 
 
REF: A. PHNOM PENH 622 
     ¶B. PHNOM PENH 613 
     ¶C. PHNOM PENH 611 
     ¶D. PHNOM PENH 601 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY: The National Assembly-elect may not be 
sworn in until sometime in September if the opposition 
chooses to drag out the election appeals process. 
Nonetheless, it appears the CPP will hold onto its 90 seats 
(Ref B) and a clear electoral mandate.  Whether CPP will form 
a coalition, and with whom, will be the question of the month 
in August.  In the end, the title of coalition partner may go 
to the swiftest and, an early FUNCINPEC coalition bid 
notwithstanding, a coalition could include a number of 
combinations.  The CPP has in the past preferred to rule by 
coalition because, among other factors, that arrangement 
buffers the party from its critics.  It is highly likely that 
there will be no delay (as there was in 2003), as the new 
government will want to get down to work.  Post offers an 
assessment of the non-CPP parties elected to the National 
Assembly.  There is the old, in Prince Norodom Ranariddh of 
Norodom Ranariddh Party (NRP); there is the new in the Human 
Rights Party (HRP), which gained three seats; and then there 
is the "blue" in the disappointed Sam Rainsy Party (SRP), 
which appears to be recovering from a prick to the balloon of 
inflated internal expectations.  (Note: Expectations many 
outsiders did not share (Ref D) but which may be causing the 
party to try to save face with its foreign supporter base by 
its rejection of the poll results.)  The opposition, now 
ironically unified in protest against election results the 
rest of the world recognizes, could have garnered a hefty 
coalition bonus (Ref E), if it had united a year ago and run 
under one banner.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Will Old Ranariddh Grace the National Assembly with his 
Presence? 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Among the most curious election outcomes was the 
come-back of Prince Norodom Ranariddh who won one of two NRP 
seats, in Kampong Cham province, via a unique telephonic 
election campaign from Malaysia.  In a throwback to another 
era, Ranariddh's voice was broadcast live over big speaker 
systems to assembled crowds in the audience, as a huge poster 
of his visage sat on stage with other more animate NRP 
notables.  As many (now defunct) FUNCINPEC leaders had told 
us, Ranariddh can carry a crowd and is an effective 
campaigner.  Having lost his Supreme Court appeal of a 
conviction for breach of trust just two days after the 
election, the Prince now faces 18 months in jail. 
Parliamentary immunity is not retroactive.  Even if he should 
win a pardon from King Sihamoni, whether Ranariddh would 
return to parliament as an ordinary member out of power, 
after having been its President, remains to be seen. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  The second NRP winner was Sao Rany, who must be 
savoring his victory over so many FUNCINPEC regulars who did 
not remain loyal to Ranariddh in the October 2006 putsch led 
by Nhiek Bunchhay and are now sidelined.  Sao Rany led the 
NRP ticket in Prey Veng and won for the party almost as many 
votes as HRP there.  Sao Rany is a close confidante of 
Ranariddh. 
 
New HRP Comes on Strong, But Not as Strong as Expected 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Khem Sokha will lead HRP with his National 
Assembly seat from Kampong Cham.  HRP was expected to win at 
least one seat, but there was no confidence that it would 
pull in more.  Khem Sokha apparently believed his own 
propaganda that HRP would win big and appears to be 
disappointed that HRP took only 6.6 percent of the national 
vote and three seats.  Consequently, Khem Sokha is protesting 
the election outcome, but has chosen not to file any official 
complaints with the National Election Committee.  (COMMENT: 
A strong sign that he is angling for a coalition position 
with CPP.  END COMMENT.)  One of the other two HRP 
candidates, Mr. Ou Chanrith, with a seat in Kandal, is a 
Cambodian-American from Fresno California well and favorably 
known to the Pol/Ec Section.  Ou Chanrith was formerly a 
teacher and had worked hard to promote education among 
Southern California's Cambodian youth, who were prone to drop 
out and join youth gangs.  As HRP spokesperson, he helped 
shape the HRP image and brand, and would not relent when 
critics said the party should drop its name. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Veteran MP and Kampong Cham native Keo Remy was 
 
PHNOM PENH 00000629  002 OF 002 
 
 
about 2,000 votes shy of carrying a Phnom Penh seat for HRP 
and will now sit on the sidelines unless HRP can manage to 
join a government coalition.  Keo Remy was formerly with 
FUNCINPEC, then moved to SRP, but bolted for HRP when, he 
says, he saw that he could not enter the inner SRP circle. 
HRP also just missed gaining seats in Takeo and Kampong Speu 
(see para 8). 
 
Something Blue: Sam Rainsy 
-------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  SRP is returning 17 veteran members of parliament, 
including Sam Rainsy (Kampong Cham) and Tioulong Samaura 
(Phnom Penh) and former National Assembly committee heads Son 
Chhay and Yim Sovann.  Nine new members include Ms. Ly 
Sreyvina, a long-time SRP supporter and successful medical 
doctor with a string of clinics, who takes one of SRP's five 
Phnom Penh seats.  Having lost one seat in Phnom Penh, SRP 
gained an additional seat in Takeo and took one each in 
Kampong Chnang and Kratie, for a net gain of two now totaling 
26 seats.  Kratie is a new electoral district for SRP.  With 
21.9 percent of the national vote, the SRP mirrored its 
performance of 2003, when it obtained 21.87 percent.  The 
more seasoned party secured more strategically useful votes 
to obtain more seats in the province-by-province competition. 
 
¶7. (SBU)  However, some SRP contacts at party headquarters 
were visibly upset that they did not do better and this may 
reflect the losses of the likes of Cambodian-Americans Marty 
Seng (Svay Rieng) and Teav Vannol (Kampong Cham).  Seng, the 
brother of CSD head Theary Seng, lost by a margin of just a 
few thousand votes.  (COMMENT:  We wonder if the SRP protest 
against the results -- still unbuttressed by solid evidence 
-- isn't meant more to answer overseas queries about campaign 
contributions as well as to build an opposition coalition in 
the new parliament.  END COMMENT.) 
 
The Missed Opportunity: A "Coalition Bonus" 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Based on extensive sample-based polling of voters 
last year, IRI had predicted that if the main opposition 
parties had joined in a coalition they would gain extra 
seats.  The "coalition bonus" as they called it was predicted 
to be substantial.  According to post's calculations of the 
2008 election results, if SRP and HRP had joined forces they 
would have netted an additional four seats.  If all of the 
major opposition parties had joined forces -- SRP, HRP, 
FUNCINPEC, and HRP -- they would have increased their 
parliamentary seat holdings by 17 over and above the sum of 
their individual party seat allocations in the July 27 
election.  In the latter case, CPP would have been left with 
just 77 seats, less than the 83 needed in the 123-seat 
National Assembly to carry a two-thirds vote on crucial 
issues such as constitutional amendments or stripping an MP 
of parliamentary immunity.  IRI had correctly predicted a 
grand coalition could have had synergies that the individual 
competing parties do not.  Furthermore, in some of the close 
vote counts noted above, capturing back the split votes would 
have put candidates over the top. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  It is ironic that the opposition parties only 
finally came together in an ad-hoc coalition when the 
election was done and the reality stood before them that they 
had eaten away at each other, province by province.  The 
grand coalition that could have offered the Cambodian people 
a different vision -- to tackle corruption and promote key 
economic sector development, revitalize education and restore 
trust in a failing health system -- now stands in front of 
the people to grouse about results that were for the most 
part their own doing.  Given this reality, it is unlikely the 
opposition will maintain its current solidarity.  There is 
already talk of "two FUNCINPECs" and of Nhiek Bunchhay 
joining the CPP.  In conversations with opposition leaders, 
post will suggest that performing a more constructive role in 
the National Assembly might be one goal for the opposition to 
serve its voters and promote Cambodia's development. 
MUSSOMELI